Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Cars 3’ Revs Its Engines w/ $53.6M; ‘All Eyez on Me’ Eyes $26.4M; ’47 Meters Down’ Circles the Waters w/ $11.2M

Monday Update: Cars 3 revved its engines to a $53.6 million debut, enough to capture first place but representing Disney-Pixar’s second-lowest wide opening weekend ever when adjusting for inflation.

Warner Bros.’ Wonder Woman, which had led for the past two frames, dropped to second place with $41.2 million. Its mild 29.5 percent decline, after a mere 43.3 percent drop the weekend prior, represent some of the best holds that any superhero movie has ever experienced in the modern era.

Lionsgate’s rap biopic All Eyez on Me about ’90s rapper Tupac Shakur found many “eyez” on it with a $26.4 million opening in third place. That’s slightly ahead of the opening of Notorious, the film from a few years ago about Shakur’s rap rival The Notorious B.I.G.

Entertainment Studios’ shark thriller 47 Meters Down took a bite out of the box office with a surprise fifth place at $11.2 million, double or more what most pre-release estimates predicted. And Sony’s R-rated comedy Rough Night also surprised in the opposite direction, with a “rough” seventh place start of $8.0 million — less than half of what some pre-release estimates predicted.

More analysis and numbers are in our Sunday update below, and the full table of box office actuals is at bottom.


Sunday Update: Cars 3 revved its engines to a $53.5 million debut, enough to capture first place but Pixar’s second-lowest wide opening weekend ever when adjusting for inflation. All Eyez on Me found many “eyez” on it, 47 Meters Down beat even the most optimistic expectations, and Rough Night had a rough debut.

Ordering the 18 Pixar films by wide release opening, Cars 3 ranks #14 by pure dollars. That drops to #17 when adjusting for inflation, or second-worst behind only The Good Dinosaur.

Disney’s animated sequel opened 10.9 percent and 19.0 percent below its two predecessors respectively. Adjusted for inflation, the comparisons look even worse, with Cars 3 starting 34.0 percent and 26.1 percent behind its predecessors respectively.

Keep in mind that Cars 3 may make up for its middling domestic gross overseas, just as Cars 2 earned less than the first film domestically but nonetheless earned more globally thanks to strongly improved overseas numbers.

[Read our interview with Cars 3 director Brian Fee, plus the film’s screenwriters and producers, here.]

Warner Bros.’ Wonder Woman, the leader for the past two weekends, took second place with $40.7 million.

Superhero movies almost always start high but then fall fast. Yet Wonder Woman stunned last frame with a mere 43.3 percent drop, the lowest second-weekend decline for a superhero film since 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man 2.

This frame Woman kept up the trend by falling only 30.3 percent, almost unheard of for a superhero film. For comparison, the lowest third-weekend drop among 2016’s six superhero releases was 44.9 percent. Chalk it up to great word of mouth, plus underwhelming debuts from potential competition like The Mummy and Rough Night.

Lionsgate’s drama All Eyez on Me, a biopic about 1990s rapper Tupac Shakur, began in third place with $27.0 million. Despite a 24 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the film earned a solid debut.

The film opens 31.9 percent above Notorious about fellow ‘90s rapper the Notorious B.I.G., though it does begin 55.0 percent below Straight Outta Compton about ‘80s rap group N.W.A. (Although that comparison may be a bit unfair, as Straight was one of the most surprising box office hits of this decade.)

[Read our interview with All Eyez on Me director Benny Boom here.]

Two other films opened wide this weekend, and in a stunner that almost nobody anticipated, Entertainment Studios’ shark thriller 47 Meters Down beat Sony’s R-rated comedy Rough Night.

Meters earned fifth place with $11.5 million, even though the highest that any user guessed on prediction website Box Office Theory was $10 million. Credit the surprise debut to an effective advertising campaign including many television spots during the NBA Finals, because its 54 percent Rotten Tomatoes rating didn’t help much.

Sony’s female-centered Rough Night started in seventh place with $8.0 million, only about half of pre-release expectations.

This decade’s trend of R-rated female-driven comedies went several straight years without producing a true dud, with titles such as Bridesmaids, Trainwreck, Bad Moms, Ghostbusters, and The Heat all earning more than $100 million total. But this summer has halted that streak, with both Rough and May’s Snatched disappointing at the box office — and Rough starts 58.8 percent below even Snatched.

Scarlett Johansson, one of this decade’s highest-paid actresses, has now starred in her second box office bomb in four months after March’s Ghost in the Shell. Although next year’s Avengers installment should surely earn tons, this year’s two titles will likely hurt her bankability and star power moving forward.

The top 10 films this weekend earned an estimated $178.2 million total. That’s 29.8 percent above the amount earned by the top 10 last weekend. It’s also 27.7 percent percent above the amount earned by the top 10 on this weekend last year, when The Conjuring 2 led with $40.4 million.

Overseas Update:

Despite its poor showing domestically, Universal’s The Mummy led overseas for the second weekend with $53.0 million, down 62.3 percent. The film has now earned $295.6 million globally, of which 80.9 percent has come overseas, one of the highest percentages ever among films to have earned at least that much globally.

Also doing well overseas were Wonder Woman with $39.5 million, Fox’s Alien: Covenant with $30.5 million ($29.9 million from its debut in China), and Cars 3 with $21.3 million. The latter is a staggered release with other major markets yet to premiere.


Weekend Actuals for Friday, June 16 – Sunday, June 18, 2017:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Cars 3 $53,688,680 4,256 $12,615 $53,688,680 1 Disney
2 Wonder Woman $41,268,850 -29% 4,018 -147 $10,271 $275,095,580 3 Warner Bros.
3 All Eyez On Me $26,435,354 2,471 $10,698 $26,435,354 1 Lionsgate / Summit
4 The Mummy $14,510,960 -54% 4,034 -1 $3,597 $57,121,660 2 Universal
5 47 Meters Down $11,205,562 2,270 $4,936 $11,205,562 1 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $8,964,039 -16% 2,759 -920 $3,249 $150,572,153 4 Disney
7 Rough Night $8,004,283 3,162 $2,531 $8,004,283 1 Sony
8 Captain Underpants $7,181,541 -41% 2,968 -561 $2,420 $57,795,201 3 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
9 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $5,071,732 -20% 1,813 -1098 $2,797 $374,942,747 7 Disney
10 It Comes At Night $2,601,467 -57% 2,450 -83 $1,062 $11,124,631 2 A24
11 Baywatch $1,610,987 -65% 1,307 -1525 $1,233 $55,158,487 4 Paramount

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Book Of Henry $1,424,540 579 $2,460 $1,424,540 1 Focus Features
2 Alien: Covenant $568,149 -69% 400 -1414 $1,420 $72,754,134 5 Fox
3 My Cousin Rachel $530,977 -45% 531 8 $1,000 $1,975,140 2 Fox Searchlight
4 Everything, Everything $356,241 -78% 403 -1143 $884 $33,151,209 5 Warner Bros.
5 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $330,813 -50% 255 -642 $1,297 $20,087,808 5 20th Century Fox
6 The Boss Baby $323,442 -37% 260 -172 $1,244 $172,492,985 12 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
7 Beauty and the Beast $275,792 -27% 242 -74 $1,140 $503,368,806 14 Disney
8 The Fate of the Furious $209,005 -53% 189 -200 $1,106 $224,934,880 10 Universal
9 Snatched $126,644 -74% 211 -440 $600 $45,403,373 6 Fox
10 How to Be A Latin Lover $106,732 -14% 119 -6 $897 $32,088,029 8 Lionsgate / Pantelion
11 King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword $103,171 -77% 158 -264 $653 $38,534,645 6 Warner Bros.
12 Smurfs: The Lost Village $94,726 -40% 163 -50 $581 $44,548,142 11 Sony / Columbia
13 Going in Style $91,413 -53% 166 -69 $551 $44,749,457 11 Warner Bros. / New Line
14 Gifted $71,026 -36% 100 -62 $710 $24,421,973 11 Fox Searchlight

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Beatriz at Dinner $702,073 395% 77 72 $9,118 $906,101 2 Roadside Attractions
2 The Hero $136,584 201% 27 23 $5,059 $196,477 2 The Orchard
3 Lowriders $98,600 -28% 40 -67 $2,465 $6,155,650 6 BH Tilt
4 The Women’s Balcony $82,234 67% 27 12 $3,046 $500,130 16 Menemsha Films
5 Dean $62,125 49% 83 51 $748 $206,859 3 CBS Films
6 The Wedding Plan $50,518 -54% 54 -51 $936 $1,294,154 6 Roadside Attractions
7 The Exception $43,702 315% 14 12 $3,122 $93,684 3 A24
8 3 Idiotas $42,739 -82% 46 -303 $929 $1,204,224 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion
9 Warriors of the Dawn $41,959 32 $1,311 $41,959 1 Fox International Pictures
10 Band Aid $37,640 34% 26 14 $1,448 $120,228 3 IFC Films
11 The Journey $32,895 2 $16,448 $32,895 1 IFC Films
12 I, Daniel Blake $31,703 -25% 43 5 $737 $191,657 3 IFC Films
13 Letters from Baghdad $31,679 94% 17 13 $1,863 $86,513 3 Vitagraph Films
14 Hare Krishna! $22,310 1 $22,310 $22,310 1 Abramorama
15 Born in China $17,363 -11% 27 -5 $643 $13,785,898 9 Disneynature
16 Restless Creature: Wendy Whelan $16,108 8% 8 2 $2,014 $109,474 4 Abramorama
17 Dawson City: Frozen Time $15,922 179% 4 3 $3,981 $25,816 2 Kino Lorber Films
18 Wakefield $15,169 -23% 19 -9 $798 $221,053 5 IFC Films
19 Their Finest $14,550 -52% 30 -19 $485 $3,595,841 11 EuropaCorp/STXfilms
20 Abacus: Small Enough to Jail $14,268 15% 7 2 $2,038 $69,735 5 PBS Distribution
21 Love, Kennedy $13,911 -49% 10 -9 $1,391 $167,661 3 Purdie Distribution
22 KEDi $11,887 34% 12 1 $991 $2,727,175 19 Oscilloscope Laboratories
23 Logan $10,879 -50% 22 -30 $495 $226,252,579 16 Fox
24 The Recall $8,302 821% 31 27 $268 $19,566 3 Freestyle Releasing
25 The Lovers $8,166 -87% 35 -92 $233 $2,148,721 7 A24
26 Il Boom $8,164 1 $8,164 $8,164 1 Rialto Pictures
27 Moka $7,660 1 $7,660 $10,094 1 Film Movement
28 Obit. $7,447 -31% 11 -3 $677 $272,827 8 Kino Lorber
29 The Case For Christ $6,888 -65% 18 -33 $383 $14,666,937 11 Pure Flix
30 Stalker $6,567 -35% 2 -1 $3,284 $182,598 7 Janus
31 Manifesto $6,394 -16% 5 -4 $1,279 $91,778 6 FilmRise
32 Jeremiah Tower: The Last Magnificent $6,121 19% 13 -6 $471 $221,222 9 The Orchard
33 Lost in Paris $4,510 1 $4,510 $4,510 1 Oscilloscope Laboratories
34 Chasing Trane: The John Coltrane Documentary $3,839 50% 7 -1 $548 $303,737 10 Abramorama
35 Colossal $3,524 -75% 16 -15 $220 $3,021,345 11 Neon
36 Harmonium $3,453 1 $3,453 $3,453 1 Film Movement
37 God of War $2,831 -49% 1 -4 $2,831 $49,978 3 Well Go USA
38 Slack Bay $2,731 184% 5 3 $546 $52,077 9 Kino Lorber Films
39 Donnie Darko (15th Anniversary Re-Release) $2,051 -59% 2 -4 $1,026 $194,220 12 Arrow Films
40 Citizen Jane: Battle for the City $1,994 -44% 3 -4 $665 $298,005 9 IFC Films
41 David Lynch: The Art Life $1,976 -18% 2 -1 $988 $169,517 12 Janus
42 Scum $1,948 1 $1,948 $1,948 1 Kino Lorber
43 Truman $1,876 3 $625 $208,799 11 Filmrise
44 One Week and a Day $1,720 3 $573 $40,137 8 Oscilloscope
45 Cezanne and I $1,696 -5% 2 0 $848 $252,189 12 Magnolia Pictures
46 Like Crazy $1,627 -71% 4 -5 $407 $99,262 7 Strand Releasing
47 Beautiful Accident $1,020 -83% 1 -5 $1,020 $51,766 3 China Lion Film Distribution
48 The Transfiguration $949 1200% 3 2 $316 $20,587 11 Strand Releasing
49 Night School (2017) $915 -42% 2 1 $458 $3,624 2 Oscilloscope Laboratories
50 Alive and Kicking $909 -90% 2 -5 $455 $67,591 11 Magnolia Pictures
51 Afterimage $807 329% 2 1 $404 $29,449 5 Film Movement
52 Hermia & Helena $725 -76% 1 -3 $725 $34,250 4 Kino Lorber
53 Risk $721 -30% 5 0 $144 $197,621 7 Neon
54 A Woman’s Life $634 1 $634 $34,617 7 Kino Lorber Films
55 Buster Mal’s Heart $526 1 $526 $71,167 8 Well Go USA
56 I Love You Both $346 -89% 2 -5 $173 $4,381 2 Magnolia Pictures
57 Soul on a String $269 -57% 1 -1 $269 $3,555 5 Film Movement
58 The Wall $250 -88% 2 -5 $125 $1,803,009 6 Roadside Attractions
59 After the Storm $150 -18% 1 -1 $150 $260,461 14 Film Movement
60 The Commune $76 -97% 1 -2 $76 $37,982 5 Magnolia Pictures

Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, June 16 – Sunday, June 18, 2017:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Cars 3 $53,547,000 4,256 $12,582 $53,547,000 1 Disney
2 Wonder Woman $40,775,000 -30% 4,018 -147 $10,148 $274,601,730 3 Warner Bros.
3 All Eyez On Me $27,050,000 2,471 $10,947 $27,050,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit
4 The Mummy $13,916,010 -56% 4,034 -1 $3,450 $56,526,710 2 Universal
5 47 Meters Down $11,500,000 2,270 $5,066 $11,500,000 1 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $8,458,000 -21% 2,759 -920 $3,066 $150,066,114 4 Disney
7 Rough Night $8,040,000 3,162 $2,543 $8,040,000 1 Sony
8 Captain Underpants $7,350,000 -40% 2,968 -561 $2,476 $57,963,660 3 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
9 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $4,982,000 -21% 1,813 -1098 $2,748 $374,853,015 7 Disney
10 It Comes At Night $2,616,600 -56% 2,450 -83 $1,068 $11,139,764 2 A24
11 Megan Leavey $2,300,828 -40% 1,832 -124 $1,256 $8,137,685 2 Bleeker Street
12 Baywatch $1,575,000 -66% 1,307 -1525 $1,205 $55,122,500 4 Paramount

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Book Of Henry $1,407,405 579 $2,431 $1,407,405 1 Focus Features
2 Paris Can Wait $743,751 70% 447 271 $1,664 $3,225,613 6 Sony Pictures Classics
3 My Cousin Rachel $535,000 -45% 531 8 $1,008 $1,979,163 2 Fox Searchlight
4 Alien: Covenant $475,000 -74% 400 -1414 $1,188 $72,660,985 5 Fox
5 The Boss Baby $315,000 -39% 260 -172 $1,212 $172,484,543 12 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $315,000 -52% 255 -642 $1,235 $20,071,995 5 20th Century Fox
7 Beauty and the Beast $272,000 -28% 242 -74 $1,124 $503,365,014 14 Disney
8 The Fate of the Furious $167,530 -62% 189 -200 $886 $224,893,405 10 Universal
9 Snatched $110,000 -78% 211 -440 $521 $45,386,729 6 Fox
10 How to Be A Latin Lover $90,000 -28% 119 -6 $756 $32,071,297 8 Lionsgate / Pantelion
11 Gifted $65,000 -41% 100 -62 $650 $24,415,947 11 Fox Searchlight

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Beatriz at Dinner $715,047 404% 77 72 $9,286 $921,075 2 Roadside Attractions
2 The Hero $135,646 199% 27 23 $5,024 $195,539 2 The Orchard
3 Churchill $80,998 -60% 60 -127 $1,350 $988,622 3 Cohen Media Group
4 Lowriders $60,430 -56% 40 -67 $1,511 $6,117,480 6 BH Tilt
5 The Wedding Plan $51,945 -52% 54 -51 $962 $1,295,581 6 Roadside Attractions
6 Maudie $49,842 4 $12,461 $49,842 1 Sony Pictures Classics
7 The Exception $41,361 293% 14 12 $2,954 $91,343 3 A24
8 Warriors of the Dawn $39,000 32 $1,219 $39,000 1 Fox International Pictures
9 Band Aid $36,480 30% 24 12 $1,520 $119,363 3 IFC Films
10 The Journey $34,364 2 $17,182 $34,364 1 IFC Films
11 Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer $32,940 -68% 45 -115 $732 $3,735,797 10 Sony Pictures Classics
12 3 Idiotas $30,000 -88% 46 -303 $652 $1,191,485 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion
13 Hare Krishna! $21,473 1 $21,473 $21,473 1 Abramorama
14 Born in China $20,000 2% 27 -5 $741 $13,788,535 9 Disneynature
15 Love, Kennedy $14,474 -47% 10 -9 $1,447 $168,224 3 Purdie Distribution
16 Moka $8,100 1 $8,100 $10,534 1 Film Movement
17 KEDi $8,000 -10% 10 -1 $800 $2,723,288 19 Oscilloscope Laboratories
18 The Recall $7,700 755% 31 27 $248 $18,964 3 Freestyle Releasing
19 Jeremiah Tower: The Last Magnificent $6,030 17% 13 -6 $464 $221,131 9 The Orchard
20 Manifesto $5,000 -35% 5 -4 $1,000 $90,384 6 FilmRise
21 Lost in Paris $4,500 1 $4,500 $4,500 1 Oscilloscope Laboratories
22 Colossal $2,817 -80% 16 -15 $176 $3,020,638 11 Neon
23 Truman $2,000 5 $400 $208,923 11 Filmrise
24 Night School (2017) $1,500 -6% 2 1 $750 $4,209 2 Oscilloscope Laboratories
25 One Week and a Day $1,250 2 $625 $1,250 8 Oscilloscope
26 Risk $305 -71% 5 0 $61 $197,205 7 Neon

 

Jesse Rifkin

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    J June 18, 2017

    Pirates 5 beat Rough Night in its fourth weekend. Wow, and also some good news for Pirates for a change. It might get to 170 million domestic and over 700 million worldwide.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Austin June 18, 2017

    Shockingly low drops for Pirates 5 and GOTG 2, suggesting Father’s Day weekend appeal for both movies. However, they’ll drop as usual next week.
    Also, another awesome hold for Wonder Woman as it possibly aims to creep past GOTG 2.
    Easy week for Cars 3, but that opening is not really satisfying for this movie; it now needs worldwide totals to help break even, something I don’t doubt will happen.
    As soon as I saw estimates from Saturday (at $30 million) down from Friday afternoon’s estimates (at $35 million), I put together that All Eyez on Me was extraordinarily front-loaded and would possibly not see a weekend above $30 million. I had the right call there, but it may not be the end of the story. Even those $27 million estimates are possibly too high, and the movie could have earned $25 million instead.
    I knew that Rough Night was going to miss $20 million, but I never thought of it missing $10 million too on the opening weekend, especially by this much! Credit to J for calling the initial estimates for Rough Night too high, as the movie made half of the estimated $16 million. Perhaps a lethal combination of low audience approval, mixed critical reception, and its release on Father’s Day really adds up.
    Of note is 47 Meters Down crossing the $10 million mark, something I knew was a possibility. However, it’s a bit higher than my expectations, and those audience approvals means it’s going down…47 meters down by next week. Also, It Comes at Night did drop nearly 58%, something I was also expecting, but The Mummy held a little better than I was expecting (I though it would drop 60%).

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 18, 2017

      (adding to segment about Rough Night): It also faced competition from the much better movie targeting its audience (Wonder Woman) and it sets a negative precedent for the following movies: The House and Girls Trip. The R-rated comedy movies have a grim future the rest of this year, and Deadpool 2 may have to single-handedly save them next year.

      Reply

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