Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Kong: Skull Island’ King w/ $61.0M; ‘Logan’ Lower w/ $37.8M; ‘La La Land’ Only Fourth Film Of Past Decade w/ 13 Weekends In Top 10

King Kong had plenty to beat his chest about this weekend, as Warner Bros.’ fantasy action film Kong: Skull Island led the box office with an estimated $61.0 million. Though some early predictions forecast it running neck-and-neck with last weekend’s leader LoganKong instead trounced its competition. Starring Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, and Samuel L. Jackson as a group battling an island of giant monsters, the film was helped by being the only major new release this weekend and Logan‘s steeper-than-expected fall.

[Read our interview with Kong: Skull Island director Jordan Vogt-Roberts here.]

Kong opened notably higher than several other recent “creature” destruction films of recent years, including Pacific Rim, Independence Day: Resurgence, and Super 8. However, Kong does start 9.8 percent below the inflation-adjusted $67.6 million opening of 2005’s Kong Kong, and also 34.5 percent behind the $93.1 million start of Godzilla.

The film earned a B+ CinemaScore, from an audience that ran 56 percent male and 35 percent under age 25. Beginning with an estimated $20.2 million on Friday (including $3.7 million from Thursday evening shows), the movie improved an estimated 19.1 percent on Saturday to $24.0 million, and is projected to decline 30.4 percent on Sunday to $16.7 million. This places the film’s opening weekend to Friday ratio at 3.02 to 1; a ratio higher than 3 to 1 for such a big-budget blockbuster is impressive.

Last weekend’s leader, Fox’s R-rated superhero drama Logan, fell an estimated 57.1 percent to $37.8 million. That second-weekend drop was in line with the 59.9 percent fall for predecessor installment The Wolverine and 57.4 percent drop for fellow R-rated superhero film Deadpool. Still, given the film’s amazing reviews and word of mouth, including a 92 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes, this decline was larger than many expected. The film has now earned $152.6 million through two weekends, or 2.0 percent behind the inflation-adjusted $149.6 million of X-Men Origins: Wolverine through the same point.

Universal’s horror Get Out continues to post unheard-of holds for a horror film. Usually the most frontloaded genre at the box office (with the possible exception of superhero releases) earning steep drops after opening weekends, Get Out is proving perhaps the single biggest horror exception of this decade. After a stunningly small 19.5 percent decline last weekend, it diminishes only 25.3 percent this weekend to an estimated $21.0 million, taking third place at the box office.

Buoyed by its fantastic word of mouth including a 99 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the film has earned a terrific $111.0 million after only three weekends, off an estimated $6 million budget. Despite opening 16.5 percent lower than the $40.0 million opening of January’s hit horror film SplitGet Out has held so well in subsequent weekends that its total is now running 12.7 percent ahead of Split through the same point.

Lionsgate’s La La Land tallies its 13th weekend in the box office top 10. The film takes ninth place by declining an estimated 40.7 percent to $1.7 million. With that, it becomes only the fourth film of the past decade to spend at least 13 weekends in the top 10. The other three were last year’s Zootopia with 13, 2013’s Frozen with a stunning 16, and 2009’s Avatar with 14. It could be difficult for La La Land to earn another frame in the top 10, though, with two new wide releases debuting next weekend.

Fox’s Hidden Figures also tallies its 10th weekend in the top 10. The film declines an estimated 27.7 percent to $2.7 million, taking seventh place. With minute declines of less than 30 percent almost every weekend since its wide opening, Hidden could potentially make a play for 12, 13, or possibly even 14 weekends in the top 10 when it’s all said and done.

Overseas Update:

Just like domestically, the overseas box office was all about Kong: Skull Island. The film debuted to an estimated $81.6 million overseas weekend in 65 markets, for a $142.6 million global weekend and total. The film was led by $7.6 million in the United Kingdom, $7.3 million in South Korea, $6.0 million in Russia, $5.6 million in Mexico, and $4.0 million in France.

Logan fell an estimated 55.8 percent overseas but still earned a big $70.3 million in 79 markets. The title has now totalled $258.6 million overseas and $411.3 million globally. The film has earned $87.5 million in China, $21.1 million in the United Kingdom, $18.1 million in Brazil, $13.9 million in Russia, and $13.1 million in South Korea.

Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, March 10 – Sunday, March 12, 2017:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Kong: Skull Island $61,015,000 3,846 $15,865 $61,015,000 1 Warner Bros.
2 Logan $37,850,000 -57% 4,071 0 $9,297 $152,656,733 2 Fox
3 Get Out $21,070,000 -25% 3,143 205 $6,704 $111,051,845 3 Universal
4 The Shack $10,050,000 -38% 2,888 0 $3,480 $32,268,691 2 Lionsgate / Summit
5 The LEGO Batman Movie $7,820,000 -33% 3,303 -353 $2,368 $159,023,660 5 Warner Bros.
6 Before I Fall $3,107,910 -34% 2,346 0 $1,325 $9,036,722 2 Open Road
7 Hidden Figures $2,765,000 -28% 1,421 -161 $1,946 $162,865,186 12 Fox
8 John Wick: Chapter 2 $2,700,000 -44% 2,031 -444 $1,329 $87,423,211 5 Lionsgate / Summit
9 La La Land $1,770,000 -41% 1,578 167 $1,122 $148,445,589 14 Lionsgate / Summit
10 Fifty Shades Darker $1,630,000 -54% 1,498 -707 $1,088 $112,923,235 5 Universal
11 Fist Fight $1,325,000 -54% 1,285 -1018 $1,031 $30,515,496 4 Warner Bros. / New Line
12 The Great Wall $1,250,000 -66% 1,592 -722 $785 $43,821,085 4 Universal
13 A Dog’s Purpose $1,060,000 -40% 1,022 -472 $1,037 $61,760,015 7 Universal
14 Rock Dog $1,025,000 -55% 1,376 -701 $745 $8,240,561 3 Summit Premiere

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Lion $1,361,350 -36% 960 -300 $1,418 $48,684,795 16 Weinstein Company
2 Split $1,220,000 -42% 981 -145 $1,244 $135,832,135 8 Universal
3 Moonlight (2016) $1,000,750 -57% 987 -577 $1,014 $26,994,477 21 A24
4 Table 19 $850,000 -46% 868 0 $979 $2,969,420 2 Fox Searchlight
5 Badrinath Ki Dulhania $850,000 152 $5,592 $850,000 1 FIP
6 A United Kingdom $500,000 -21% 317 46 $1,577 $2,580,288 5 Fox Searchlight
7 Moana $439,000 -31% 276 -45 $1,591 $247,495,232 16 Disney
8 Sing (2016) $414,330 6% 400 117 $1,036 $268,716,030 12 Universal
9 KEDi $322,500 36% 114 59 $2,829 $1,008,060 5 Oscilloscope Laboratories
10 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $218,000 -3% 166 1 $1,313 $530,126,400 13 Disney
11 The Ottoman Lieutenant $173,750 216 $804 $173,750 1 Paladin
12 The Salesman $170,202 -32% 105 -10 $1,621 $2,050,205 7 Cohen Media Group
13 Monster Trucks $160,000 -18% 181 -6 $884 $33,246,378 9 Paramount
14 Fences $150,000 -51% 189 -95 $794 $57,388,479 13 Paramount
15 Passengers $105,000 -21% 172 -3 $610 $99,350,204 12 Sony / Columbia
16 xXx: The Return of Xander Cage $90,000 128% 139 67 $647 $44,844,113 8 Paramount
17 Manchester By the Sea $68,450 -74% 113 -274 $606 $47,533,212 17 Roadside / Amazon

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Last Word $74,683 136% 25 21 $2,987 $114,341 2 Bleeker Street
2 Paterson $62,919 6% 51 7 $1,234 $1,896,676 11 Bleecker Street
3 Land of Mine $60,973 63% 40 20 $1,524 $188,409 5 Sony Pictures Classics
4 My Life As A Zucchini $55,606 15% 52 23 $1,069 $174,355 3 GKIDS
5 The Founder $48,200 -29% 57 -21 $846 $12,572,694 8 Weinstein Company
6 Rings (2017) $45,000 -67% 76 -98 $592 $27,689,229 6 Paramount
7 The Sense Of An Ending $42,000 4 $10,500 $42,000 1 CBS Films
8 Toni Erdmann $41,999 -28% 45 -18 $933 $1,357,191 12 Sony Pictures Classics
9 Bitter Harvest $41,235 -61% 32 -52 $1,289 $498,922 3 Roadside Attractions
10 Neruda $32,668 46% 25 -8 $1,307 $804,815 13 The Orchard
11 The Red Turtle $30,222 -40% 64 0 $472 $754,884 8 Sony Pictures Classics
12 Raw $25,230 2 $12,615 $25,230 1 Focus World
13 Everybody Loves Somebody $25,000 -59% 33 -27 $758 $1,869,237 4 Lionsgate / Pantelion
14 Personal Shopper $23,129 4 $5,782 $23,129 1 IFC Films
15 Doctor Strange $17,000 -62% 47 -34 $362 $232,629,520 19 Disney
16 Tim Timmerman, Hope of America $12,281 -76% 12 0 $1,023 $74,002 2 Purdie Distribution
17 Mr. Gaga: A True Story of Love and Dance $10,031 46% 8 4 $1,254 $138,612 6 Abramorama
18 Donald Cried $4,809 -40% 4 2 $1,202 $15,944 2 The Orchard
19 Chapter & Verse $3,094 -24% 1 0 $3,094 $3,094 6 Paladin
20 Love & Taxes $2,756 62% 3 2 $919 $5,486 2 Abramorama
21 Junction 48 $1,325 -76% 1 -1 $1,325 $9,198 2 The Orchard
22 Saving Banksy $324 -67% 1 -1 $324 $324 9 Parade Deck Films
Jesse Rifkin

4 Comments

  1. Avatar
    ADFan March 12, 2017

    “The film has now earned $152.6 million through two weekends, or 2.0 percent behind the inflation-adjusted $149.6 million of X-Men Origins: Wolverine through the same point.”

    Don’t you mean 2.0 percent *ahead*?

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Jack March 12, 2017

    Kong Kong….:D

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Jacen March 12, 2017

    Now if only Marvel could have an MCU limited series for TV called Kang: Skrull Island. That could be fun. Time-traveling dictators, shape-shifting aliens, who-knows-what-else… get it done, Marvel.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Octopus March 13, 2017

    And you originally said Kong was going to have a $100 M final B.O gross a couple of months ago.

    Reply

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