Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Logan’ Claws Its Way To $85.3M; ‘Get Out’ Ranks Among Best Horror Holds Ever w/ $26.1M; ‘Collide’ Posts Worst Second Weekend Drop of All Time

The claws came out and so did audiences this weekend, as Fox’s R-rated superhero film Logan started with an estimated $85.3 million. The final installment starring Hugh Jackman as the iconic Wolverine character opened 13.5 percent below the $98.6 million inflation-adjusted opening of 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine, but 60.5 percent above the $53.1 million opening of 2013’s The Wolverine. It also starts 35.5 percent behind the $132.4 million start of the other main R-rated superhero release Deadpool (although that was one of the biggest films of the entire decade) and right in line with the $85.0 million opening of Hollywood’s last superhero release Doctor Strange.

Logan‘s massive buzz was helped by its marketing campaign playing up the emotional aspects, including a first trailer that featured almost no action sequences and the tragic song “Hurt” by Johnny Cash playing in the background. It also opened in by far the most theaters of any R-rated film ever on 4,071 screens, or 360 more than the previous widest R-rated release Spy. The movie’s terrific 93 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes also helped with word of mouth. This could indicate a strong hold moving forward, if it isn’t hurt too much by fellow March blockbuster competition like Kong: Skull Island or Power Rangers.

Logan started with an estimated $33.0 million on Friday, including $9.5 million from Thursday night previews. It then declined an estimated 5.1 percent on Saturday to $31.3 million, and is projected to fall 32.9 percent on Sunday to $21.0 million. This places the film’s opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.58 to 1.

Last frame’s leader, Universal’s horror Get Out, declined a mere 21.8 percent to an estimated $26.1 million. That represents one of the lowest second weekend drops for a horror release ever, especially considering that horror usually experiences the highest such drops of any genre. The film’s fantastic reviews including a virtually unheard-of 99 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes caused it to hold steady at a level the industry basically never sees. With $75.9 million total through two weekends, the film has surged past its estimated $6 million budget. It’s running only 1.8 percent behind the $77.3 million total of Split through the same point, and that’s one of the biggest original horror films of the decade.

Lionsgate’s faith-based drama The Shack took third place with an estimated $16.1 million. The Christian film starring Sam Worthington and Octavia Spencer was based on the bestselling book of the same name. Compared to other recent faith-based releases, the movie starts 41.8 percent above the $11.3 million opening of War Room and 8.6 percent above the $14.8 million start of Miracles from Heaven.

The Shack started with an estimated $5.4 million on Friday, including $850 thousand from Thursday night previews. The film improved an estimated 11.5 percent on Saturday to $6.0 million, and is projected to decline 25.2 percent on Sunday to $4.5 million. This places the movie’s opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.94 to 1.

Open Road Films’ young adult sci-fi drama Before I Fall opened in fifth place with an estimated $4.9 million. The movie stars Zoey Deutch as a teenager forced to live the last night of her life over and over again. The film starts 31.0 percent above the $3.7 million opening of last month’s The Space Between Us, another young adult-aimed sci-fi drama.

Before began with an estimated $1.6 million on Friday, improved an estimated 19.0 percent on Saturday to $1.9 million, and is projected to decline 35.0 percent on Sunday to $1.2 million. This places the movie’s opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.96 to 1.

A24’s Moonlight posted its best performing weekend of its entire theatrical run with an estimated $2.5 million, following its Oscars Best Picture win last Sunday and viral mixup during the presentation. The film expanded into 1,564 theaters, its widest release yet, beating its previous best weekend and wide release of $1.4 million and 1,104 theaters in January, the weekend following the announcement of Oscar nominations. The film’s gross this weekend was extra impressive considering it was also just released on DVD, usually the death blow for theatrical revenue. The film’s $25.3 million total to date is decent relative to its production budget, though it nonetheless ranks as one of the lowest grossing Best Picture winners of all time.

Open Road Films’ Collide, after starting last weekend with one of the lowest opening weekends of all time for a release in 2,000+ theaters, experienced an estimated 87.1 percent plummet this weekend to only $194 thousand. If that number remains when weekend actuals are released on Monday, that would rank as the worst second-weekend drop of all time. The ignominious record is currently held by 2005’s Undiscovered, which tumbled 86.4 percent on its second weekend.

The top 10 films this weekend earned a cumulative estimated $162.6 million. That’s 56.5 percent above the $103.8 million earned by the top 10 films last weekend. It’s also 78.1 percent above the $91.2 million earned by the top 10 on this same weekend last year, when Deadpool led for the third consecutive weekend with $31.1 million.

 

Overseas Update:

Logan slashed its way to a monster $152.5 million overseas opening in 81 markets. That’s one of the best overseas weekends in a long time, and one of the best R-rated overseas openings ever. It took first place in 80 of its 81 markets, led by $46.3 million in China. It also earned $11.4 million in the United Kingdom, $8.2 million in South Korea, $8.2 million in Brazil, and $7.1 million in Russia. Combined with domestic grosses, the movie earned a huge $237.9 million global opening weekend.

Sony’s Resident Evil: The Final Chapter took in $18.4 million overseas, led almost entirely by its $17.7 million second weekend in China. The film has now earned $267.3 million overseas, making it the best-performing Resident Evil installment overseas even as it was the lowest-performing installment domestically.

A Dog’s Purpose opened in China with $15.4 million, for a $17.4 million overseas weekend, about quintuple what it earned last frame. The film has now earned $41.3 million overseas and $101.5 million globally.

Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, March 3 – Sunday, March 5, 2017:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Logan $85,300,000 4,071 $20,953 $85,300,000 1 Fox
2 Get Out $26,100,000 -22% 2,938 157 $8,884 $75,943,640 2 Universal
3 The Shack $16,100,000 2,888 $5,575 $16,100,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit
4 The LEGO Batman Movie $11,650,000 -39% 3,656 -401 $3,187 $148,631,801 4 Warner Bros.
5 Before I Fall $4,948,538 2,346 $2,109 $4,948,538 1 Open Road
6 John Wick: Chapter 2 $4,725,000 -50% 2,475 -479 $1,909 $82,865,972 4 Lionsgate / Summit
7 Hidden Figures $3,825,000 -34% 1,582 -440 $2,418 $158,765,439 11 Fox
8 The Great Wall $3,500,000 -62% 2,314 -1014 $1,513 $41,261,305 3 Universal
9 Fifty Shades Darker $3,500,000 -55% 2,205 -1011 $1,587 $109,927,315 4 Universal
10 La La Land $2,975,000 -37% 1,411 -322 $2,108 $145,684,362 13 Lionsgate / Summit
11 Fist Fight $2,875,000 -56% 2,303 -882 $1,248 $28,301,175 3 Warner Bros. / New Line
12 Moonlight (2016) $2,529,926 260% 1,564 979 $1,618 $25,382,305 20 A24
13 Rock Dog $2,200,000 -41% 2,077 0 $1,059 $6,634,298 2 Summit Premiere
14 Lion $2,200,000 -43% 1,260 -542 $1,746 $46,590,550 15 Weinstein Company
15 Split $2,100,000 -49% 1,126 -775 $1,865 $134,052,900 7 Universal
16 A Dog’s Purpose $1,700,000 -52% 1,494 -595 $1,138 $60,157,570 6 Universal
17 Collide $194,326 -87% 1,002 -1043 $194 $2,217,360 2 Open Road

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Table 19 $1,575,000 868 $1,815 $1,575,000 1 Fox Searchlight
2 Moana $646,000 -22% 321 -57 $2,012 $246,898,402 15 Disney
3 A United Kingdom $625,000 23% 271 123 $2,306 $1,807,249 4 Fox Searchlight
4 Fences $290,000 -63% 284 -313 $1,021 $57,101,785 12 Paramount
5 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $240,000 -43% 165 -119 $1,455 $529,844,792 12 Disney
6 Monster Trucks $190,000 76% 187 37 $1,016 $33,031,892 8 Paramount
7 Rings (2017) $140,000 -80% 174 -545 $805 $27,615,298 5 Paramount
8 Hacksaw Ridge $80,000 44% 107 47 $748 $67,037,775 18 Lionsgate
9 Sleepless $63,888 11% 101 19 $633 $20,755,952 8 Open Road

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 KEDi $234,700 115% 54 41 $4,346 $577,510 4 Oscilloscope Laboratories
2 Arrival $85,000 -65% 79 -364 $1,076 $100,497,778 17 Paramount
3 The Founder $66,000 -61% 78 -83 $846 $12,484,543 7 Weinstein Company
4 Everybody Loves Somebody $65,000 -82% 60 -273 $1,083 $1,829,042 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5 Toni Erdmann $63,096 -49% 63 -49 $1,002 $1,286,811 11 Sony Pictures Classics
6 Tim Timmerman, Hope of America $62,489 12 $5,207 $62,489 1 Purdie Distribution
7 Paterson $55,631 -31% 44 -11 $1,264 $1,795,009 10 Bleecker Street
8 The Red Turtle $49,843 -57% 64 -51 $779 $691,111 7 Sony Pictures Classics
9 Jackie $48,500 -56% 70 -42 $693 $13,837,559 14 Fox Searchlight
10 My Life As A Zucchini $44,728 57% 29 27 $1,542 $78,894 2 GKIDS
11 Doctor Strange $44,000 -46% 81 -24 $543 $232,595,918 18 Disney
12 Patriots Day $43,000 -70% 84 -73 $512 $31,843,535 11 CBS Films / Lionsgate
13 Land of Mine $40,280 188% 20 12 $2,014 $114,411 4 Sony Pictures Classics
14 xXx: The Return of Xander Cage $40,000 -72% 72 -108 $556 $44,740,122 7 Paramount
15 The Last Word $35,620 4 $8,905 $35,620 1 Bleeker Street
16 Un Padre No Tan Padre $17,000 -56% 23 -29 $739 $2,139,033 6 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films.
17 Mr. Gaga: A True Story of Love and Dance $6,814 17% 4 2 $1,704 $122,333 5 Abramorama
18 Love & Taxes $1,766 1 $1,766 $1,766 1 Abramorama
Jesse Rifkin

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