Long Range Box Office Forecast: CHALLENGERS and UNSUNG HERO

Photo © 2023 Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Pictures Inc. All Rights Reserved; Photo courtesy Lionsgate

This week’s report closes out the month of April with a look ahead at two of the last major studio wide releases slated to hit theaters before the early summer movie season kicks off in May.

Challengers

United Artists Releasing

April 26, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$12M
Domestic Total Range: $18M-$35M

PROS:

  • Zendaya is the main draw for Challengers given her significant appeal among the young generation of moviegoers, particularly women, which this film hopes to bring out.
  • Fans of director Luca Guadagnino could also help drive some interest among the prestige and art house audiences.

CONS:

  • Despite a long-lead marketing presence with trailer releases dating back to early last year, awareness may be less of a concern than intent, as this film’s sexually charged narrative could be challenging to develop into a mainstream hit despite its young cast.
  • Opening on the final week before summer movie season begins has historically been disadvantageous for many releases.

Unsung Hero

Lionsgate

April 26, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$14M
Domestic Total Range: $20M-$46M

PROS:

  • Lionsgate and Kingdom Story Company have found box office success in the past with faith-based hits such as Jesus Revolution and I Can Only Imagine.
  • Based on a popular Christian pop singer, Rebecca St. James, this film could attract a similar audience.

CONS:

  • There is a ceiling on box office potential for some faith-based films without a mainstream hook that help them transcend beyond the core audience.
  • Opening the final week before summer movie begins has historically been disadvantageous for many releases.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/28/24)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Distributor
4/5/2024 The First Omen $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $20,000,000 – $34,400,000 20th Century Studios
4/5/2024 Monkey Man $13,000,000 – $21,000,000 $37,000,000 – $63,000,000 Universal Pictures
4/10/2024 SUGA│Agust D TOUR “D-DAY” the MOVIE     BTS SUGA
4/12/2024 Civil War $15,000,000 – $23,000,000 $42,000,000 – $72,000,000 A24
4/12/2024 Don’t Tell Mom the Babysitter’s Dead (2024)     Iconic Events Releasing
4/12/2024 The Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 $12,000,000 – $34,000,000 Lionsgate
4/12/2024 Shrek 2 (20th Anniversary Re-Release)     Universal Pictures
4/13/2024 SUGA│Agust D TOUR “D-DAY” the MOVIE     BTS SUGA
4/19/2024 Abigail $12,000,000 – $22,000,000 $28,000,000 – $66,000,000 Universal Pictures
4/19/2024 Sasquatch Sunset     Bleecker Street
4/19/2024 Spy x Family Code: White     Sony / Crunchyroll
4/19/2024 Villains Inc.     Purdie Distribution
4/19/2024 Wildfire: The Legend of the Cherokee Ghost Horse     Hannover House
4/24/2024 aespa: WORLD TOUR     Trafalgar Releasing
4/26/2024 Challengers $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $18,000,000 – $35,000,000 United Artists Releasing
4/26/2024 Nowhere Special     Cohen Media Group
4/26/2024 Unsung Hero $7,000,000 – $14,000,000 $20,000,000 – $46,000,000 Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

Photo © 2023 Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Pictures Inc. All Rights Reserved; Photo courtesy Lionsgate