Weekend Projections: ‘Beauty and the Beast’ Remains on Possible Course for $175M Bow & March Record; ‘Belko Experiment’ Eyes $3.6M Debut

Saturday Update: Disney reports this morning that Beauty and the Beast earned a huge $63.787 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $16.3 million debut. The overall first day take nearly doubles the $32 million of last year’s The Jungle Book and stands as the best opening day in history for a PG-rated film.

Looking at the Thursday share itself, that represented 25.6 percent of Friday’s total, meaning the film was less top-heavy during early shows than current March record holder Batman v Superman (34 percent), The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 (35 percent), and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (36 percent). For reference, The Jungle Book and Cinderella owned 13 and 10 percent shares, respectively.

Comparisons remain challenging, but this is a Disney film with considerable appeal across the age spectrum — particularly among women. That sets it up to still potentially enjoy a strong internal multiplier, especially thanks to its encouraging word of mouth thus far (85 percent on Flixster and an “A” CinemaScore).

At this stage, based on reports that pre-sales had been quite strong for the weekend as a whole compared to more front-loaded franchises, weekend projections still range between $154 million (if it follows the trajectory of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Mockingjay finale), $167 million (based on Cinderella‘s post-Thursday run), and $185 million (using Jungle Book‘s post-Thursday legs). BoxOffice is currently sticking with its projection that the film will best BvS‘ $166 million March record opening weekend with around $175 million by the end of Sunday.

On the international front, Beast tallied $40.3 million on Friday. The global cume since release on Thursday stands at $115.6 million. China accounted for $12.6 million on Friday, while the U.K. posted $6.1 million and Mexico totaled $2.4 million. The film is open in all major markets except France, Australia, and Japan.

Our key weekend projections are below. Updated estimates from the studios will be published on Sunday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Beauty and the Beast $175,000,000 4,210 $41,568 $175,000,000 1 Disney
2 Kong: Skull Island $25,600,000 -58% 3,846 0 $6,656 $106,875,294 2 Warner Bros.
3 Logan $16,800,000 -56% 3,687 -384 $4,557 $183,326,885 3 Fox
4 Get Out $13,000,000 -37% 2,979 -164 $4,364 $132,868,145 4 Universal
5 The Shack $6,000,000 -40% 2,825 -63 $2,124 $42,484,630 3 Lionsgate / Summit
6 The LEGO Batman Movie $5,400,000 -29% 2,735 -568 $1,974 $168,123,352 6 Warner Bros.
7 The Belko Experiment $3,500,000 1,341 $2,610 $3,500,000 1 BH Tilt
8 Hidden Figures $1,500,000 -46% 1,162 -259 $1,291 $165,559,069 13 Fox
9 John Wick: Chapter 2 $1,100,000 -59% 1,065 -966 $1,033 $89,690,804 6 Lionsgate / Summit
10 Before I Fall $1,000,000 -67% 1,551 -795 $645 $11,260,677 3 Open Road

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Lion $710,000 -46% 621 -339 $1,143 $49,976,614 17 Weinstein Company
2 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $630,000 201% 179 13 $3,520 $530,875,532 14 Disney
3 A Dog’s Purpose $585,000 -47% 594 -428 $985 $63,040,030 8 Universal
4 La La Land $505,000 -72% 585 -993 $863 $149,739,184 15 Lionsgate / Summit
5 Split $500,000 -60% 604 -377 $828 $136,859,225 9 Universal
6 Moana $475,000 10% 264 -12 $1,799 $248,176,698 17 Disney
7 Fist Fight $440,000 -66% 533 -752 $826 $31,517,748 5 Warner Bros. / New Line
8 The Sense Of An Ending $425,000 971% 282 278 $1,507 $477,597 2 CBS Films
9 Badrinath Ki Dulhania $420,000 -51% 156 4 $2,692 $1,586,509 2 FIP
10 Fifty Shades Darker $415,000 -75% 607 -891 $684 $113,991,485 6 Universal
11 Rock Dog $370,000 -64% 444 -932 $833 $9,211,353 4 Summit Premiere
12 A United Kingdom $290,000 -45% 257 -60 $1,128 $3,148,253 6 Fox Searchlight
13 Table 19 $114,000 -86% 202 -666 $564 $3,489,156 3 Fox Searchlight

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 T2: Trainspotting $185,000 5 $37,000 $185,000 3 Sony

===

Friday Report: Beauty and the Beast kicked off what we’ve been expecting to be a massive weekend for quite awhile with a reported $16.3 million from Thursday night shows. That includes earnings from premium fan event screenings that were charging $30 per ticket in roughly 600 theaters. Still, among Disney’s live action fairy tale remakes, this in an entirely new league of its own: Beauty soared past their previous top performer in that genre, The Jungle Book‘s $4.2 million, as well as Cinderella‘s $2.3 million. Impressively, this also comes in ahead of the $16.0 million earned by The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, which is quite a telling feat given the expectation that Beauty should play to less front-loading over the three-day weekend proper.

Also opening last night, The Belko Experiment cornered $305,000 in its selective distribution strategy from BH Tilt. That’s a bit ahead of The Green Inferno‘s $275,000 and The Darkness ($206,000).

We’ll have key Friday estimates directly from the studios, along with weekend projections, on Saturday.

Shawn Robbins

2 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Rick Chapman March 18, 2017

    I miss the projected totals for the Top 10, the cumulative totals, usually on the right. They are missing this weekend.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Rick Chapman March 18, 2017

    I miss the cumulative totals, usually found on the right. They are usually posted on Saturday

    Reply

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