Domestic Weekend Estimates: ‘Captain America: Civil War’ Poised to Launch with Excellent $182.5M

Saturday Update: Disney reports that Captain America: Civil War bowed to a strong $75.253 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $25 million start. By comparison, that’s 9 percent ahead of Iron Man 3‘s $68.9 million opening day three years ago and 104 percent ahead of Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $36.9 million first day in 2014.

While “Friday proper” grosses (everything after Thursday evening) proved to be slightly lower than expected compared to previous Marvel titles, it’s important to note the potential effect of Mother’s Day this Sunday on weekend projections. Historically, the holiday has not had a major effect on superhero titles; however, no recent Marvel film has opened on Mother’s Day weekend recently, and the strong word of mouth and reviews also help Civil War to stand apart in that regard.

For now, Boxoffice is projecting an opening weekend around $182.5 million for Civil War. That would make it Marvel’s third best opener ever (behind both Avengers films) and, with stellar 91 percent Rotten Tomatoes and 92 percent Flixster audience scores, would set the stage for a long and healthy run as summer officially kicks off.

Meanwhile, The Jungle Book slipped into second place with an estimated $5.694 million yesterday. That gives the blockbuster Disney remake an excellent domestic tally of $268.8 million through 22 days of play. Look for a weekend around $18.3 million.

Mother’s Day took third place to begin its sophomore weekend with $1.92 million on Friday, down just 31 percent from opening day last week. With $13.6 million in the bank through 8 days, we expect the film to play very strongly this weekend due to Sunday’s actual Mother’s Day landing. Boxoffice projects a $7.5 million weekend.

Filling out the top five, The Huntsman: Winter’s War added $956,000 yesterday (-64 percent from last Friday) for a new total of $37.7 million as it eyes a weekend around $3.3 million. Last but not least, Keanu sunk 73 percent from opening day to $925,000 on Friday. With $12.95 million earned in 8 days, it eyes a sophomore weekend around $2.9 million.

Our complete list of early projections are below. Official studio estimates for the weekend will be reported on Sunday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Captain America: Civil War $182,500,000 4,226 $43,185 $182,500,000 1 Disney
2 The Jungle Book (2016) $18,300,000 -58% 4,144 103 $4,416 $281,412,265 4 Disney
3 Mother’s Day (2016) $7,500,000 -10% 3,141 106 $2,388 $19,219,690 2 Open Road
4 The Huntsman: Winter’s War $3,300,000 -66% 2,901 -901 $1,138 $40,083,620 3 Universal
5 Keanu $2,900,000 -69% 2,681 23 $1,082 $14,920,937 2 Warner Bros. / New Line
6 Zootopia $2,700,000 -49% 2,077 -410 $1,300 $327,647,990 10 Disney
7 Barbershop: The Next Cut $2,100,000 -65% 1,734 -576 $1,211 $48,168,843 4 Warner Bros. / New Line
8 The Boss $1,600,000 -63% 1,933 -890 $828 $58,952,460 5 Universal
9 Ratchet & Clank $1,100,000 -77% 2,895 4 $380 $6,733,633 2 Focus / Gramercy
10 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $1,000,000 -74% 1,593 -737 $628 $327,205,133 7 Warner Bros.

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Sing Street $3,700,000 1044% 153 49 $24,183 $4,391,697 4 Weinstein Company
2 Eye in the Sky $465,000 -49% 418 -196 $1,112 $17,204,147 9 Bleecker Street
3 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 $425,000 -62% 640 -452 $664 $58,067,665 7 Universal
4 Criminal (2016) $260,000 -81% 517 -1061 $503 $14,229,295 4 Lionsgate / Summit
5 Deadpool $200,000 -54% 335 -74 $597 $362,162,266 13 Fox
6 Compadres $145,000 -78% 212 -156 $684 $2,705,328 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion
7 10 Cloverfield Lane $105,000 -64% 176 -129 $597 $71,449,392 9 Paramount
8 The Divergent Series: Allegiant $100,000 -66% 210 -200 $476 $65,712,466 8 Lionsgate / Summit
9 Everybody Wants Some!! $97,000 -74% 131 -311 $740 $3,240,929 6 Paramount

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 A Bigger Splash $95,000 5 $19,000 $119,067 1 Fox Searchlight

Friday Update: Disney reports this morning that Captain America: Civil War earned an excellent $25 million from Thursday night’s opening shows in North America, including $3.1 million from IMAX alone. That marks the second best ever pre-Friday opening for an MCU title (only trailing Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s $27.6 million last year) and a new Marvel record in IMAX (besting Ultron‘s $3.0 million).

Also noteworthy is that last night’s performance blew past Iron Man 3‘s $15.6 million Thursday night start three years ago, as well as Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $10.2 million in 2014.

Civil War is currently riding a wave of tremendous buzz both critically and in terms of early audience word of mouth. All expectations are that the film will continue to hold well throughout the weekend (especially with a potential boost from Mother’s Day on Sunday) and beyond. Official Friday estimates and early weekend projections will be posted here Saturday morning.

Boxoffice Staff

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Eli May 06, 2016

    fck yea

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Mahira May 06, 2016

    In India CA:Civil War opened with around 1.7M$ or 118.5M Indian Rupees on its Opening day(6th May) from around 1100 Screens & set the record of 4th Highest opener for any Hollywood Film in India after Furious 7,Age of Ultron & The Jungle Book.

    This Opening is very strong because it gets Direct competition from 4-5 New Indian Releases & 2-3 Holdovers.

    The Word of Mouth is Extreamely Positive like The Jungle Book.So,It May Hold Stronger than F7 & Ultron.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Captain Canada May 07, 2016

    Best marvel movie ever made!

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Lennon May 07, 2016

    I think you guys are off on Zootopia. It beat Keanu Fri and likely will Sat and Sunday it’s very likely to pick up some profit from Mother’s Day. Deadline is projecting around 3m and I tend to at that mark or a little above.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Lennon May 07, 2016

      I meant to say that Kenau beat it Friday but zoo will very likely perform better throughout the weekend.

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Manav May 07, 2016

    58% drop for TJB….u guys are just crackhead

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Ted May 07, 2016

    Writer’s of this site are biased towards Marvel, the movie opens 30ml lower than your forcast and you didn’t say nothing. You give excuses like Mother’s Day. Even in your forcast you said this film has no cons, here are some cons
    – poor audience reception of AOU
    – Disney Marvel franchise fatigue ( every movie look the same)

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    No May 07, 2016

    Blatant faboyism comparing a film with avengers, ant man, spider-man, and black panther to IM3 and Winter Soldier. And a film whose demos are 60% make over 25 is not going be effected by Mother’s Day.

    Reply

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