Domestic Weekend Estimates: ‘Captain America: Civil War’ Poised to Launch with Excellent $182.5M
Saturday Update: Disney reports that Captain America: Civil War bowed to a strong $75.253 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $25 million start. By comparison, that’s 9 percent ahead of Iron Man 3‘s $68.9 million opening day three years ago and 104 percent ahead of Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $36.9 million first day in 2014.
While “Friday proper” grosses (everything after Thursday evening) proved to be slightly lower than expected compared to previous Marvel titles, it’s important to note the potential effect of Mother’s Day this Sunday on weekend projections. Historically, the holiday has not had a major effect on superhero titles; however, no recent Marvel film has opened on Mother’s Day weekend recently, and the strong word of mouth and reviews also help Civil War to stand apart in that regard.
For now, Boxoffice is projecting an opening weekend around $182.5 million for Civil War. That would make it Marvel’s third best opener ever (behind both Avengers films) and, with stellar 91 percent Rotten Tomatoes and 92 percent Flixster audience scores, would set the stage for a long and healthy run as summer officially kicks off.
Meanwhile, The Jungle Book slipped into second place with an estimated $5.694 million yesterday. That gives the blockbuster Disney remake an excellent domestic tally of $268.8 million through 22 days of play. Look for a weekend around $18.3 million.
Mother’s Day took third place to begin its sophomore weekend with $1.92 million on Friday, down just 31 percent from opening day last week. With $13.6 million in the bank through 8 days, we expect the film to play very strongly this weekend due to Sunday’s actual Mother’s Day landing. Boxoffice projects a $7.5 million weekend.
Filling out the top five, The Huntsman: Winter’s War added $956,000 yesterday (-64 percent from last Friday) for a new total of $37.7 million as it eyes a weekend around $3.3 million. Last but not least, Keanu sunk 73 percent from opening day to $925,000 on Friday. With $12.95 million earned in 8 days, it eyes a sophomore weekend around $2.9 million.
Our complete list of early projections are below. Official studio estimates for the weekend will be reported on Sunday.
|1||Captain America: Civil War||$182,500,000||—||4,226||—||$43,185||$182,500,000||1||Disney|
|2||The Jungle Book (2016)||$18,300,000||-58%||4,144||103||$4,416||$281,412,265||4||Disney|
|3||Mother’s Day (2016)||$7,500,000||-10%||3,141||106||$2,388||$19,219,690||2||Open Road|
|4||The Huntsman: Winter’s War||$3,300,000||-66%||2,901||-901||$1,138||$40,083,620||3||Universal|
|5||Keanu||$2,900,000||-69%||2,681||23||$1,082||$14,920,937||2||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|7||Barbershop: The Next Cut||$2,100,000||-65%||1,734||-576||$1,211||$48,168,843||4||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9||Ratchet & Clank||$1,100,000||-77%||2,895||4||$380||$6,733,633||2||Focus / Gramercy|
|10||Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice||$1,000,000||-74%||1,593||-737||$628||$327,205,133||7||Warner Bros.|
|1||Sing Street||$3,700,000||1044%||153||49||$24,183||$4,391,697||4||Weinstein Company|
|2||Eye in the Sky||$465,000||-49%||418||-196||$1,112||$17,204,147||9||Bleecker Street|
|3||My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2||$425,000||-62%||640||-452||$664||$58,067,665||7||Universal|
|4||Criminal (2016)||$260,000||-81%||517||-1061||$503||$14,229,295||4||Lionsgate / Summit|
|6||Compadres||$145,000||-78%||212||-156||$684||$2,705,328||3||Lionsgate / Pantelion|
|7||10 Cloverfield Lane||$105,000||-64%||176||-129||$597||$71,449,392||9||Paramount|
|8||The Divergent Series: Allegiant||$100,000||-66%||210||-200||$476||$65,712,466||8||Lionsgate / Summit|
|9||Everybody Wants Some!!||$97,000||-74%||131||-311||$740||$3,240,929||6||Paramount|
|1||A Bigger Splash||$95,000||—||5||—||$19,000||$119,067||1||Fox Searchlight|
Friday Update: Disney reports this morning that Captain America: Civil War earned an excellent $25 million from Thursday night’s opening shows in North America, including $3.1 million from IMAX alone. That marks the second best ever pre-Friday opening for an MCU title (only trailing Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s $27.6 million last year) and a new Marvel record in IMAX (besting Ultron‘s $3.0 million).
Also noteworthy is that last night’s performance blew past Iron Man 3‘s $15.6 million Thursday night start three years ago, as well as Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $10.2 million in 2014.
Civil War is currently riding a wave of tremendous buzz both critically and in terms of early audience word of mouth. All expectations are that the film will continue to hold well throughout the weekend (especially with a potential boost from Mother’s Day on Sunday) and beyond. Official Friday estimates and early weekend projections will be posted here Saturday morning.