Weekend Projections: ‘A Madea Halloween’ Scores $24.4M Debut; ‘Jack Reacher’ Sequel Eyes $23M; ‘Ouija’ Prequel Paces for $13.2M; ‘Joneses’ Soft w/ $5.75M; ‘Moonlight’ Impresses in NY/LA

Saturday Update: Lionsgate reports this morning that Boo! A Madea Halloween debuted with an estimated $9.4 million on Friday, claiming first place on a crowded weekend. That bests the $5.75 million first day of 2013’s A Madea Christmas by 63.5 percent and sets the stage for a first place opening over the three-day frame as it enjoys healthy early word of mouth from fans. Boxoffice is currently projecting an excellent $24.4 million debut weekend.

Paramount’s Jack Reacher: Never Go Back took in an estimated $8.9 million in its debut yesterday, ahead of the $5.0 million debut of its 2012 predecessor and just short of last week’s The Accountant ($9.07 million). Unfortunately, weak reviews and initial word of mouth could hold it back over the long haul. We’re projecting an opening three-day frame around $23.0 million.

Universal’s Ouija: Origin of Evil posted $5.46 million yesterday, down from its predecessor’s $8.3 million opening day two Octobers ago. The sequel has generated much stronger reviews this time around, which could help over the weekend and going into Halloween, but some diminished returns were expected for the sequel after the first film’s poor-to-mixed reception. Look for a debut weekend around $13.2 million this time around.

The Accountant added $4.4 million to its haul yesterday, down 51.5 percent from opening day last week. That’s a fairly impressive hold considering the film’s new direct competition with Reacher this weekend. With $38.3 million in the bank through eight days of play, its sophomore weekend should tally around $13.9 million.

The Girl on the Train rounded out the top five with $2.35 million yesterday, bringing it up to $54 million overall domestically. Its third weekend is pacing for $7.4 million.

Keeping Up with the Joneses lived down to our expectations, unfortunately, with an estimated $2.0 million opening day on Friday. That’s less than Masterminds‘s $2.3 million first day a few weeks back. Joneses should net close to $5.75 million this weekend.

Meanwhile, I’m Not Ashamed debuted outside the top ten with $330,000 from 505 locations. It should net around $875,000 this weekend.

On the platform front, A24’s Moonlight is off to a roaring start this weekend with an estimated $131,464 earned from just four locations in New York and Los Angeles on Friday. That represents a robust $32,866 per-theater average, and already bests the entire weekend take of the studio’s Room ($118,298), which debuted last October ahead of a leggy awards season run. Moonlight also topped the $127,445 opening day of Fruitvale Station, which debuted in seven locations back in July 2013. Our initial projections for the weekend point toward $370,000.

American Pastoral also debuted yesterday with $45,000 from 50 locations.

Our initial weekend projections for key releases are in the chart below. Check back on Sunday for further analysis and the studio’s own official estimates.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween $24,400,000 2,260 $10,796 $24,400,000 1 Lionsgate
2 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back $23,000,000 3,780 $6,085 $23,000,000 1 Paramount
3 The Accountant $13,900,000 -44% 3,332 0 $4,172 $47,795,381 2 Warner Bros.
4 Ouija: Origin of Evil $13,200,000 3,167 $4,168 $13,200,000 1 Universal
5 The Girl on the Train (2016) $7,400,000 -40% 3,091 -150 $2,394 $59,032,330 3 Universal
6 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children $6,200,000 -31% 3,133 -702 $1,979 $74,631,835 4 Fox
7 Keeping Up with the Joneses $5,750,000 3,022 $1,903 $5,750,000 1 Fox
8 Kevin Hart: What Now? $4,600,000 -61% 2,567 0 $1,792 $19,431,645 2 Universal
9 Storks $4,200,000 -26% 2,145 -921 $1,958 $64,829,528 5 Warner Bros.
10 Deepwater Horizon $3,800,000 -41% 2,828 -575 $1,344 $55,445,671 4 Lionsgate / Summit
11 The Magnificent Seven (2016) $2,700,000 -48% 1,979 -1231 $1,364 $89,443,367 5 Sony / Columbia
12 Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life $2,300,000 -47% 1,772 -1050 $1,298 $17,009,927 3 CBS Films / Lionsgate
13 Sully $1,600,000 -44% 1,172 -1039 $1,365 $120,963,890 7 Warner Bros.
14 Max Steel $620,000 -72% 2,034 0 $305 $3,371,057 2 Open Road

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Birth of a Nation (2016) $900,000 -67% 633 -1472 $1,422 $14,165,181 3 Fox Searchlight
2 I’m Not Ashamed $875,000 505 $1,733 $875,000 1 Pure Flix
3 Queen of Katwe $385,000 -56% 319 -743 $1,207 $7,759,595 5 Disney
4 Desierto $350,000 -32% 168 95 $2,083 $995,340 2 STX Entertainment
5 Masterminds (2016) $300,000 -82% 520 -1507 $577 $17,077,825 4 Relativity Studios

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Moonlight (2016) $370,000 4 $92,500 $370,000 1 A24
2 American Pastoral $125,000 50 $2,500 $125,000 1 Lionsgate

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Friday Report: Paramount’s Jack Reacher: Never Go Back opened to an estimated $1.325 million at 7pm last night, showing in 2,850 locations. That’s a solid start for the Tom Cruise-led sequel as it came in just behind The Accountant‘s $1.35 million last week, while ahead of Deepwater Horizon‘s $860,000 and John Wick‘s $870,000. Of course, those latter three titles weren’t sequels, so more front-loading is expected for Reacher 2.

Lionsgate reports that Boo! A Madea Halloween bowed to $855,000 from over 1,800 locations last night. Despite the number of films in the franchise, there’s no one-to-one comparison among Madea titles since most of them opened before the prevalence of Thursday night releases. For initial comparison, Boo! came in ahead of Kevin Hart: What Now?‘s $740,000 last week and Barbershop: The Next Cut‘s $735,000, while behind Ride Along 2‘s $1.26 million earlier this year.

Ouija: Origin of Evil kicked off with $722,000 last night, less than the $910,000 earned by its 2014 predecessor. Some diminishing returns were to be expected, but this sequel’s positive reviews could help sway some horror fans into theaters over the coming days.

Meanwhile, Keeping Up with the Joneses earned an underwhelming $300,000 last night. That marks the lowest Thursday night gross of wide releases since summer, and one of the lowest of 2016 thus far.

Official Friday estimates and initial weekend projections will be published here on Saturday morning.