Weekend Projections: ‘War for the Planet of the Apes’ Set for Healthy $54M+; ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’ Paces for Another $47M; ‘Wish Upon’ Eyes $5.7M

Saturday Update: War for the Planet of the Apes bowed to an estimated $22.1 million on Friday, including Thursday’s $5 million take. That’s a very healthy start for the trilogy finisher from Fox as the film claimed first place and looks to do so over the weekend as well. As we suspected, the film was more front-loaded to Thursday showings by fans than its predecessor Dawn, which earned $27.65 million on opening day with $4.1 million from Thursday shows in July 2014. For the weekend, the film is on a likely pace for around $54.7 million based on Dawn‘s post-Thursday trajectory — however, the studio is a bit more optimistic with a $57.5 million weekend projection.

Spider-Man: Homecoming added $13.6 million yesterday, landing within the range of expectations for the beginning of its second weekend. With $176.6 million in the bank through eight days of play, Spidey remains on track for a sophomore frame of $47 million.

The Big Sick expanded nationwide in successful fashion, earning $2.474 million from 2,597 theaters and bringing its domestic cume to $10.91 million. This weekend looks to ring up around $7.9 million.

Meanwhile, Despicable Me 3 increased its domestic haul to $175.2 million with a $6.12 million third Friday gross, Baby Driver posted another strong hold with an additional $2.6 million and new domestic total of $67 million, and Wonder Woman continued its phenomenal run with another $2.005 million and updated domestic tally of $375.8 million. Our projections for all three are below.

Wish Upon opened in sixth place yesterday with $2.286 million, including Thursday’s earnings. A weekend around $5.7 million is expected.

Key weekend projections are below. Full studio estimates will be published tomorrow.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 War for the Planet of the Apes $54,700,000 4,022 $13,600 $54,700,000 1 Fox
2 Spider-Man: Homecoming $47,000,000 -60% 4,348 0 $10,810 $210,070,314 2 Sony / Columbia
3 Despicable Me 3 $20,000,000 -40% 4,155 -380 $4,813 $189,042,150 3 Universal
4 Baby Driver $8,600,000 -34% 3,043 -183 $2,826 $73,001,857 3 Sony / TriStar
5 The Big Sick $7,900,000 121% 2,597 2271 $3,042 $16,336,824 4 Lionsgate
6 Wonder Woman $6,500,000 -34% 2,744 -347 $2,369 $380,301,078 7 Warner Bros.
7 Wish Upon $5,700,000 2,250 $2,533 $5,700,000 1 Broad Green Pictures
8 Cars 3 $2,900,000 -46% 2,049 -653 $1,415 $139,764,500 5 Disney
9 Transformers: The Last Knight $2,700,000 -58% 2,323 -918 $1,162 $124,808,619 4 Paramount
10 The House (2017) $1,800,000 -62% 1,633 -1501 $1,102 $23,134,558 3 Warner Bros. / New Line
11 47 Meters Down $1,200,000 -56% 1,032 -709 $1,163 $41,197,106 5 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Beguiled $900,000 -56% 726 -215 $1,240 $9,372,569 4 Focus Features
2 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $500,000 -42% 399 -261 $1,253 $386,562,390 11 Disney
3 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $490,000 -59% 448 -591 $1,094 $170,040,886 8 Disney
4 Captain Underpants $320,000 -4% 277 -130 $1,155 $71,151,375 7 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
5 The Boss Baby $146,000 -24% 170 -25 $859 $174,210,472 16 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6 All Eyez On Me $145,000 -76% 195 -404 $744 $44,726,273 5 Lionsgate / Summit

===

Friday Report: Fox reports this morning that War for the Planet of the Apes bowed to a solid $5.012 million from Thursday night’s opening shows, which began at 7pm. Notably, that comes in 22 percent ahead of Dawn of the Planet of the Apes‘ $4.1 million Thursday start back in July 2014. Since Thursday night openings have only increased in popularity since then, comparisons to more recent films with target adult male audiences should also be taken into consideration, such as Alien: Covenant ($4.2 million), Jason Bourne ($4.3 million), and Star Trek Beyond ($5.5 million).

Wish Upon took in $376,000 last night, according to various reports. That’s just over half of 47 Meters Down‘s $740,000 start last month.

Meanwhile, Spider-Man: Homecoming is expected to continue going strong into its sophomore frame.

Official Friday estimates and our key weekend projections will be posted here on Saturday morning.

Boxoffice Staff

10 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Austin July 14, 2017

    Wish Upon could start (at long last) chipping away at the strong holds of 47 Meters Down, but upon realizing that the former costs $12 million without including advertising costs, it could flop altogether.
    Despite what this article is pointing out about Ape’s $5 million opening last night compared to the previous installment, it is still possible right now for Apes to generate a $70 million weekend, even if the odds are quite high. This is because pre-sold ticket numbers are higher than Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and last year’s Star Trek: Beyond. With all that said, I think a more solid forecast will appear with Saturday’s report.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    DangerS July 15, 2017

    “War” made $22.1M on Friday. If it performs like “Dawn” it will make $58M. If it performs like “Rise” it will make $62M.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 15, 2017

      Of which, “War” is most likely to perform similarly to “Dawn” at this point.
      With a forecast of $5.7 million, Wish Upon is a horror movie flop.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Ted July 15, 2017

    Box office weekend forecast for war of the planet of the apes and spiderman was very accurate. Every other sites were over predicting.
    Your weekend projections and forecasts are very systematic and consistent. Keep it up.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Paul July 15, 2017

      True ! Thats why we like this website ; )

      Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS July 15, 2017

      Maybe because they just copied Deadline?

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Octopus July 15, 2017

    I had a feeling that The Big Sick wasn’t going to make a splash in wide release. Just because a film draws in limited or semi-wide release doesn’t mean it will draw in wide release.

    Same thing happened to The Beguiled. When it was expanded to 900+ theaters it lost 34% of its audience.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    J July 15, 2017

    Okay that’s really sad that Pirates is making less than GOGT 2 at this point. Also, that’s a big drop for Homecoming(which is really good by the way).

    Reply
    • Avatar
      A.A. Roi July 15, 2017

      Its looking more and more like there will be only one single solitary tentpole film which will have exceeded expectations this summer (Wonder Woman). That fact can’t be pleasing most studio execs in Hollywood.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    Matt D. July 15, 2017

    Apes will make $61 M like Kong: Skull Island a few months ago and Spider-Man will make $48 M.

    Reply

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