Tweet counts and analysis for Wednesday, January 23rd

'Movie 43' tumbles, 'Hansel and Gretel' impress

on January 23, 2013 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming012513.jpgWednesday Morning Update: Movie 43 came back down to earth on Tuesday as it fell 71% to 8,857 tweets and 13.47% market share, down from 30,279 tweets and 34.34% market share on Monday. This was no surprise as its Monday number was hugely inflated by the release of a red-band preview. By comparison, A Haunted House had 10,873 tweets its Tuesday before release. It might have another, albeit lesser, tumble on Wednesday and as such a total on the week in the range of ~55,000 looks likely. As I said yesterday I think 10,000 is going to be its basement ratio and as such its going to have a Friday ceiling of $5 million is all proceeds as expected.

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters came in second once again amongst the new openers with 3,306 tweets and 5.03% market share, up 153% from Monday's 1,309 tweets and 1.48% market share. By comparison, Snow White And The Huntsman had 4,420 tweets on its Tuesday before release and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter had 3,138 tweets. Strong expansion here on Tuesday which was due in part to a new red-band preview being released and openings overseas in other markets. With an expected ratio in the ~2,000 range things are shaping up nicely here for the film and it would be my pick for the #1 spot on the weekend if I had to choose right now.

Lastly, Parker rose 121% to 1,368 tweets and 2.08% market share, up from 619 tweets and 0.7% market share on Monday. I said yesterday how rare it is for Statham movies to crack the 1,000 mark on days leading up to release and the film promptly answered with the highest single day of any Statham top-lining movie outside of trailer releases. By comparison, The Mechanic had 475 tweets its Tuesday before release, Killer Elite had 573 and Safe had 343. The wild card here is Jennifer Lopez who's name does seem to attract quite a bit of attention based on her last couple films which both had above-average ratios for their genre of ~1,200. Considering that all of my three Statham comparison films had ratios of under 700 its safe to say that Lopez should bump it up closer to the 1,000 mark which is going to make a breakout (and indeed double figures) very unlikely given its overall numbers.

Top 10 Upcoming Movies for Tuesday January 22nd

Film Tweets
1 Safe Haven 17,111
2 Movie 43 8,857
3 Warm Bodies 3,519
4 Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters 3,306
5 Identity Thief 1,535
6 Olympus Has Fallen 1,493
7 Side Effects (2013) 1,369
8 Parker 1,367
9 A Good Day to Die Hard 1,339
10 Beautiful Creatures (2013) 1,308

Check back on Thursday to see the final Wednesday numbers analysis. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: Movie 43, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Parker
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