Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of January 28th

UPDATED: 'Warm Bodies' set to lead the box office

on February 01, 2013 by Alex Edghill

upcoming020113.jpgFriday Morning Update: Warm Bodies dipped 17% on Thursday to finish up with 9,442 tweets, down from 11,388 on Wednesday. Really nothing to be alarmed at as overall on the week it finished with 32,215 tweets before its release day Friday. It is well on target for our predicted $20.7 million start over the weekend.

Bullet To The Head got a 35% boost to 855 tweets, up from 631 the day before. Really the overall levels here are quite poor and with just 2,588 tweets over the Monday to Friday period without a difficult name to zero in on tweets for. Its the least talked about film on Twitter on the year so far, handily beating The Last Stand's 3,756 to take the honor.

Thursday Morning Update: Warm Bodies rose 74% on Wednesday to 11,388 tweets, up from 6,542 on Tuesday. By comparison, Dark Shadows had 8,623 tweets its Wednesday before release and is once again looking to be a solidish measuring stick for Bodies' performance on the weekend. I do think that the ratio here is going to be slightly higher since the movie is getting a lot of buzz for being similar in premise to Twilight and anything that gets linked to Twilight no matter how matter-of-fact it is, immediately sees a big ratio boost. 32,000 tweets on the week seems to be its likely destination and assuming a ratio of 4,000 look for $8 million on Friday and $20.7 million on the weekend.

Bullet To The Head actually saw a slight dip to 631 tweets, down 4% from Tuesday's 657 tweets. Dips are usually not a good thing, especially when the film in question is already pulling very low numbers in what should be its most active time. By comparison, The Last Stand had 976 tweets on its Wednesday before release. It looks like once again Sly will be beaten out by Arnold because even assuming a similar 1,800 ratio to Last Stand it is going to struggle to reach $1.7 million on Friday and $5.2 million on the weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Warm Bodies had a solid 35% bump on Tuesday to 6,542 tweets, up from 4,843 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Dark Shadows had 6,641 tweets its Tuesday before release. So far its tracking very similarly to Dark Shadow and as such I would think a ratio of ~3,000 should be in order. With a week total of ~25,000 looking likely it should be able to sneak close to or just cross the $20 million mark.

Bullet To The Head rose 48% on Tuesday to 657 tweets, up from 445 the day before, which was only good enough to land it in the 24th spot on the day. Minus his Expendables buddies Sly is having a tough time generating buzz on Twitter and there is nothing here to suggest any breakouts. With a ratio of ~1,750 looking likely its not going its pretty much assured that it won't challenge for double figures over the weekend.

Tuesday Morning Update: Warm Bodies began its release week with a hefty 4,843 tweets and 6.02% market share. The film has struck a chord with many on Twitter as "Twilight with zombies" and as such has gained a lot of tweets simply because of its association. The real question here is whether its romance themes will scare away the core audience of males for the zombie sub-genre, and if that same theme will be able to fill seats with women who traditionally wouldn't be caught dead in a theater watching zombies eat brains. By comparison, Dark Shadows had 4,087 tweets its Monday before release. Last week proved that films which create buzz solely because of their starpower are often swamped with massive ratios. While Warm Bodies doesn't have to worry about its stars stealing the spotlight, its story is already proving to be a magnet for discussion which hints at an above average ratio of 3,000+. Even with that ratio in mind its current pace is pointing to it easily taking the weekend with mid-teen millions.

Bullet To The Head started with 445 tweets and 0.55% market share on Monday to come in a distant second on the day. Stallone will be hoping to tap into his Expendables crowd of older males who are nostalgic for some mindless 80s action. By comparison, The Last Stand went after the same demo a couple weeks ago and had 631 tweets its Monday before release. I would expect the ratio here to be in the ballpark of 1,500 tweets (Last Stand was 1,869), which is going to make it really hard for the film to even come close to double digits at its current pace.

Top Movies for the Week of January 28th

Rk Film Wed Thu Week Wed - Thu %
1 (-) Safe Haven 24,121 15,874 72,526 -34%
2 (-) Warm Bodies 11,388 9,442 32,215 -17%
3 (-) Jobs 6,833 6,059 29,023 -11%
4 (+1) Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters 4,137 3,709 22,669 -10%
5 (+8) Iron Man 3 1,016 3,536 5,632 248%
6 (-2) Movie 43 6,145 2,853 23,778 -54%
7 (-1) Identity Thief 3,383 2,292 9,338 -32%
8 (-) A Good Day to Die Hard 2,114 2,043 7,619 -3%
9 (-2) Side Effects (2013) 2,181 1,475 4,032 -32%
10 (+1) Beautiful Creatures (2013) 1,208 1,069 4,704 -12%
24 (-4) Bullet To The Head 631 855 2,588 35%

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Tags: Warm Bodies, Bullet to the Head

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