Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of February 25th

UPDATED: All three new openers decline on eve of release

on March 01, 2013 by Alex Edghill
Print

upcoming030113.jpgFriday Morning Update: All three new openers fell in total tweets on Thursday which usually is not the best of signs. Not always, but usually. Jack The Giant Slayer also surpassed The Last Exorcism Part II on the day which is further trouble for the CBS release since I expect its ratio to be more than double that of Jack.

Thursday Morning Update: 21 And Over barely managed to hang onto top spot on Wednesday despite a massive tumble of 59% to 5,929 tweets, down from Tuesday's 14,293 tweets. The reason for the drop was a lack of trending on the day as Tuesday it trended more than once. By comparison, Project X had 22,755 tweets on its Wednesday before release. Still, things are looking pretty rosy here as I wouldn't expect its ratio to be as crazy as Project X and considering its ongoing bump on Thursday (looks like it will come close to 12,000) I can see it finishing the week with ~35,000 tweets. Assuming a ratio of ~7,000 look for $5.2 million on Friday and $14.8 million on the weekend.

The Last Exorcism Part II almost regained the top spot amongst the new openers on Wednesday as it rang in with 5,783 tweets, up 61% from Tuesday's 3,596. By comparison, Dark Skies had 5,323 tweets its Wednesday before release, Texas Chainsaw 3D had 30,828 while The Woman In Black had 5,087. Definitely a better return on the day but it is still lacking the explosiveness for the genre needed to really break out. Yes it is now just above Woman In Black (for Wednesday, not for the week in total) but it doesn't have a superstar in Daniel Radcliffe to fill seats and will rely much more on online buzz. With 20,000 tweets on the week looking likely and a predicted ratio of 6,000 expect $3.3 million on Friday and $8.7 million on the weekend.

Last up, Jack The Giant Slayer had an impressive 5,113 tweets on Wednesday, up from just 1,954 the day before. By comparison, Mirror Mirror had 2,078 tweets its Wednesday before release, Alice In Wonderland had 17,743, while Clash Of The Titans had 5,712. After lagging for much of the week its really picked up its game which is a much better sign. It definitely should have an easy road taking top spot thanks to its ratio which should be the lowest by far of the new openers. Expect $8 million for Friday and $24.3 million on the weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: 21 And Over had a huge bump on Tuesday to 14,293 tweets, up over 500% from Monday's comparatively paltry take of 2,200. Now that's more like it! By comparison, Project X had 27,184 tweets on its Tuesday before release. So amazingly even after this huge bump its still at just over half the daily buzz of Project X and this is probably how the weekend will play out as well. Double figures look like a good fit at this point but its not going to push the $20 million mark like my comparison did.

The Last Exorcism Part II came in a distant second amongst the new openers with a 45% bump to 3,596 tweets, up from 2,473 tweets the day before. By comparison, Dark Skies had 4,478 tweets its Tuesday before release, Texas Chainsaw 3D had 7,233 while The Woman In Black had 8,266. Will it still lagging significantly behind all of my yardsticks its difficult to see how this breaks out past low double digits at best. The Dark Skies comparison is perhaps the most damning as that was just last week. Horror fans on Twitter just simply aren't eating it up as they have for other recent entries in the genre.

Like 21 And Over, Jack The Giant Slayer also had a hefty bump on Tuesday as it rose 202% to 1,954 tweets, up from 646 tweets on Monday. By comparison Mirror Mirror had 1,589 tweets its Tuesday before release, Alice In Wonderland had 14,449, while Clash Of The Titans had 3,789. Much better numbers for Tuesday which really points to it having no trouble with the competition on the weekend considering its ratio is almost certain to be under 750. 

Tuesday Morning Update: The Last Exorcism Part II led the newcomers for the weekend of March 1st on Monday with 2,473 tweets. The film will be the fourth horror on the year so far in two months, with A Haunted House also spoofing the genre and no doubt attracting some of the same audience as well. The worry here is that even though the film is based on a successful film that the market is all scared out and will be lukewarm in their reception. By comparison, Dark Skies had 6,064 its Monday before release, Texas Chainsaw 3D had 8,170 while The Woman In Black had 4,488. This really is quite a poor start to its week unfortunately, especially in light of recent films in the genre and CBS Films' last foray into screamer-land (Woman In Black). There is still time for it to pick up its game but unfortunately I don't see more than high single digits at the present moment based on its current trajectory.

21 And Over began its week with 2,200 tweets to secure a spot in the top 6 on the day. Appealing straight to teens and young people in general it is undoubdtedly going to have a hefty ratio. Last year's Project X began its release week with 15,191 tweets, and while that film had a lot of trending to help its numbers out its clear that 21 And Over just simply isn't creating nearly the same amounts of interest amongst its target audience which will hurt its potential. One saving grace it might have is the fact that its writer/producer/director is of Hangover fame, and with a similar storyline perhaps it will be able to tap more older people than Project X. Regardless I don't see teen millions here unless it seriously picks up its game.

Lastly, Jack The Giant Killer struggled on Monday to reach 646 tweets. The film has had a tough time throughout its entire run creating buzz, but unlike the first two films above I'm not as worried about this comparative lack of tweets since it should appeal to a wide ranging audience including younger kids which will serve to push its ratio down. By comparison Mirror Mirror had 921 tweets its Monday before release, Alice In Wonderland had 12,001, while Clash Of The Titans had 1,975. So its not panic time yet, especially since today its on course for a nice bump to 1,000+ tweets but I think its safe to say its going to be more Mirror Mirror than Alice In Wonderland.

Top Movies for the Week of February 25th

Rk Film Wed Thu Week Wed - Thu %
1 (+1) 21 And Over 5,929 5,504 27,926 -7%
2 (+2) Jack the Giant Slayer 5,113 4,355 12,068 -15%
3 (-) The Last Exorcism Part II 5,783 4,052 15,904 -30%
4 (+6) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 1,527 3,848 5,860 152%
5 (-4) Safe Haven 6,765 3,739 25,536 -45%
6 (-1) A Good Day to Die Hard 2,734 2,079 10,701 -24%
7 (+5) The Conjuring 1,374 1,433 2,818 4%
8 (-2) Olympus Has Fallen 2,493 1,403 7,882 -44%
9 (-1) Oz: The Great and Powerful 1,663 1,277 5,690 -23%
10 (+1) Dark Skies 1,503 914 6,832 -39%

Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: 21 And Over, Jack The Giant Slayer, The Last Exorcism Part II
Print

read all Twitter articles »


0 Comments

No comments were posted.

What do you think?