Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of February 11th

UPDATED: Looks to be a good weekend for 'Die Hard'

on February 14, 2013 by Alex Edghill

upcoming021513.jpgThursday Morning Update: A Good Day To Die Hard rose a new opener-best 58% on Wednesday to 12,276 tweets, up from 7,760 the day before. By comparison, The Expendables 2 grabbed 11,420 tweets its Wednesday before release. So far on the week the film has managed to pull in a whopping 27,872 tweets which is very impressive considering the genre. I'd expect its opening day ratio to be in the realm of 3,500 which should see it hit $8 million for Valentine's Day today and just shy of $50 million by the end of President's Day.

Safe Haven continued to steamroll all others in terms of total tweets as it nabbed 34,518 tweets on the day, a 53% bump from Tuesday's 22,634. The Vow had 54,138 tweets on the corresponding day before release last year which helps to put this into perspective. The Vow's ratio was also a massive 11,334 and while I don't expect this film to reach that high since it doesn't have tweet magnet Channing Tatum in it, something in the realm of 8,500 could be in store which would see it hit $9.2 million on opening day and then $35 million by the end of Monday. Valentine's Day should definitely be its biggest day and as such it shouldn't be surprising to see it beat out Die Hard for today before seeing a much steeper drop-off over the following days.

Beautiful Creatures saw a solid bump Wednesday as it rose 50% to 4,303 tweets, up from 2,870 the day before. By comparison, Beastly had 1,573 tweets on its day before release while I Am Number Four had 3,588. Nice numbers here when holding them up next to my comparisons but one thing to keep in mind is that both Beastly and Number Four were released two years ago and over that time ratios have increased dramatically. Expect $4 million today, and then $18.2 million by the end of the long weekend.

Last up is Escape From Planet Earth which was the only of the new openers to decline on Wednesday, falling 18% to 372 tweets from 455 the day before. By comparison, Mars Needs Moms had 295 tweets its Wednesday before release, Gnomeo And Juliet had 942 while Planet 51 had 346. The ratio here will undoubtedly be the lowest of all four films on the weekend, and assuming a figure of ~500 it should be able to reach $3.5 million on Friday and $17.1 million over the long weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Safe Haven dominated on Tuesday as it has for most of the last few weeks on Twitter with 22,634 tweets. Ever since TV ads started debuting the film has been an absolute buzz-powerhouse. Nicolas Sparks adaptations have proven to be box office dynamite amongst the middle aged and older female audiences. With Valentine's day becoming a huge box office draw in recent years and it being the clear-cut date movie of choice for the period it has great potential. Its only stumbling block are its leads which are still largely unproven commodities. In addition, of the seven Sparks adaptations that have made it to the big screen only two have surpassed $20 million on opening weekend and that was arguably because of their strong leads (Dear John - $30 million with Channing Tatum at the helm and Safe Haven $22 million with Zac Efron). By comparison, The Vow had 42,919 tweets two days before its release. Its relative performance to The Vow puts much of the hoopla in perspective as I suspect the two will have similar ratios. I do think its going to do well over its opening weekend but The Vow or Dear John it is not.

A Good Day To Die Hard continued to impress on Tuesday with a strong 7,760 tweets on the day. Unlike Safe Haven the audience here is going to be primarily males, and all those couples where the man wears the pants (yes it does happen) will end up here. On top of that the Die Hard franchise is a staple of most middle-aged men. Perhaps more importantly, this market segment generally have much lower ratios than their female counterparts so while the total numbers here are markedly lower than Safe Haven the future is indeed much brighter because of it. By comparison, The Expendables 2 had 11,420 tweets two days before its release, though the plethora of action stars in the film no doubt gave it a serious boost in buzz which will be absent with Die Hard as it is just Willis essentially. I expect big things here for the film and it should have no problem becoming the highest unadjusted opening in the franchise (+$34 million) if it continues down this road.

Teeny boppers need not fear, as this weekend their tastes are being catered to as well with the young adult novel-adaptation Beautiful Creatures also hits the theaters. The series is very popular by all accounts but no where near the level of hype (or sales) that Hunger Games had. Its Tuesday return of 2,870 was solid but hardly awe-inspiring considering that its target audience of younger girls and women traditionally have supplied some of the largest ratios over the last few years. By comparison, Beastly had 2,408 tweets two days before its release while I Am Number Four had 2,166. With the buzz where it is I don't see it making it past mid teens over the opening frame.

Last up is the animated Escape From Planet Earth which had just 455 tweets on Tuesday. The genre does tend to have some of the lowest ratios but this number was very low. By comparison, Mars Needs Moms had 570 tweets and Planet 51 had 287. No its not going to be an indie animated disaster like Delgo but its going to be hard-pressed to seriously challenge the others.

Top Movies for the Week of February 11th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (-) Safe Haven 22,634 34,518 79,770 53%
2 (-) A Good Day to Die Hard 7,760 12,276 27,872 58%
3 (-) Warm Bodies 4,706 4,664 16,293 -1%
4 (+1) Beautiful Creatures (2013) 2,870 4,303 12,067 50%
5 (-1) Monsters University 3,242 2,091 9,630 -36%
6 (+3) The Last Exorcism Part II 1,646 1,859 10,162 13%
7 (+47) The Internship 105 1,769 1,931 1585%
8 (-2) Dark Skies 2,310 1,690 7,224 -27%
9 (-2) Identity Thief 1,874 1,563 6,557 -17%
10 (+1) Tomorrowland 1,092 1,313 3,281 20%
31 (-8) Escape From Planet Earth 455 372 1,189 -18%

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Tags: Safe Haven, A Good Day To Die Hard, Escape From Planet Earth, Beautiful Creatures

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