Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of March 18th

UPDATED: 'Croods' set to take #1 spot on the weekend

on March 21, 2013 by Alex Edghill

upcoming032213.jpgThursday Morning Update: Despite a 10% drop on Wednesday to 3,107 tweets Olympus Has Fallen continued as the big Twitter winner for the week, handily beating out the other two films combined. By comparison, Contraband had 3,170 tweets its Wednesday before release and Safe House had 10,157. 14,000 tweets on the week look probable and with a predicted ratio of 1,800 look for it to reach $7.75 million on Friday and $22.5 million over the full weekend.

The Croods also saw an identical 10% fall in tweets on Wednesday as it dropped to 1,793 tweets on the day, down from 1,998 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, The Lorax had 4,972 tweets its Wednesday before release while Ice Age: Continental Drift had 4,359. I'm not particularly worried about the slight drop off as that is quite common amongst family films to have mid-week declines (The Lorax also had a 10% fall from Tuesday to Wednesday). I'm predicted a week-tally of 7,500 which should allow it to hit $10 million on Friday and $40 million on the whole weekend, giving DreamWorks yet another number 1 opening.

Not much to talk about when it comes to Admission. A very common title has made life hard for it to gain any sort of traction on Twitter. Despite being the only film to see an increase on the day (up 14% to 200 tweets) its going to struggle to hit even 1,000 tweets on the week. Even assuming a low ratio thanks to the difficult name its going to secure $2.8 million at max on Friday and $8.5 million on the weekend. If not for Fey's involvement here I firmly believe it wouldn't crack even $5 million.

Wednesday Morning Update: Olympus Has Fallen continued atop the new openers on Tuesday as it rose 22% to 3,458 tweets, up from 2,826 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Contraband had 2,690 tweets its Tuesday before release and Safe House had 7,457. Strong returns for the film which should have it on track for a week total in the vicinity of 14,000. With a ratio of ~2,000 looking likely (Contraband had a 1,395 while Safe House was at 2,644) it seems to be a lock for $20 million+.  

The Croods rang up a further 1,998 tweets on Tuesday, a new opener best 26% increase over its Monday tally of 1,589. By comparison, The Lorax had 5,547 tweets its Tuesday before release while Ice Age: Continental Drift had 2,639. Solid numbers here which point to it taking the weekend easily considering that Friday should account for only a quarter of its weekend total (as opposed to ~35% for the other two openers), and because films in the family genre have some of the lowest ratios. A 1,000 ratio should be the upper limit here which would allow it to hit upper single digits on Friday and approach $40 million at least on the full weekend.

Last up again is Admission which dropped 26% to 176 tweets on Tuesday, from 239 tweets on Monday. By comparison, The Switch and How Do You Know had 445 and 416 tweets respectively their Tuesday before release. While its true that its search string is very restrictive which is definitely cutting back on its total tweets, it is apparent that it isn't going to be breaking out anytime soon based on my comparisons which also had titles which were troublesome to track tweets for. Perhaps Fey can lure in older women outside of the Twittersphere to salvage its weekend but I have a hard time seeing anything more than upper single digits at this point.

Tuesday Morning Update: Olympus Has Fallen began its release week with a solid 2,826 tweets, giving it top spot amongst the new openers and number four overall on the day. Its set to skew to older audiences with a decent pull across both genders which definitely gives it breakout potential. By comparison, Contraband had 1,741 tweets its Monday before release and Safe House had 5,807. Great start here for the film as its ratio should be below average (~1,500) barring any unforeseen tweet explosions.

The Croods also had a fine start with 1,589 tweets which allowed it to crack into the top 10 at number 9. Just the second animated wide release of the year, it has also been marketed heavily and given the full exposure treatment by Fox who is no stranger to the cave man genre thanks to the hugely successful Ice Age franchise. Its target is family audiences and as such it should have a relatively low ratio in the region of ~1,000. By comparison, The Lorax had 3,544 tweets its Monday before release. Given the fact that it will expand very well into the weekend this start is very promising. Fox appears to have yet another animated hit on their hands.

Last up is Admission, my latest tweet string nightmare. Its been a pain to narrow down buzz for the film since its name and even its hashtag have some serious pollution going on. The result was a Monday total of just 239 tweets. Its going to skew to older women and probably have a tough time filling seats with much else as Olympus should soak up the lion's share of date night traffic. By comparison, the similarly difficult to track films The Switch and How Do You Know had 146 and 208 tweets respectively their Monday before release. They should be solid markers for its potential, so while it won't be a complete bomb I don't see it making it to double figures either.

Top Movies for the Week of March 18th

Rk Film Mon Tue Week Mon - Tue %
1 (-) Scary Movie 5 6,950 7,461 14,411 7%
2 (+3) 42 (2013) 1,756 6,336 8,092 261%
3 (-1) Evil Dead 5,874 5,543 11,417 -6%
4 (-) Olympus Has Fallen 2,826 3,458 6,284 22%
5 (+55) Despicable Me 2 73 3,364 3,437 4508%
6 (-3) Kick-Ass 2 3,594 2,125 5,719 -41%
7 (-) The Host (2013) 1,697 2,022 3,719 19%
8 (+1) The Croods 1,589 1,998 3,587 26%
9 (+11) Jurassic Park 3D 693 1,813 2,506 162%
10 (+6) Spring Breakers 905 1,371 2,276 51%
46 (-8) Admission 239 176 415 -26%

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Tags: Admission, The Croods, Olympus Has Fallen

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