Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of March 4th

UPDATED: 'Oz' set to blitz 2013 opening weekend mark

on March 08, 2013 by Alex Edghill

upcoming030813.jpgFriday Morning Update: Oz: The Great And Powerful had a 31% bump on Thursday to 3,624 tweets, bringing its week tally to 9,352. This was just shy of my predicted 10,000. Everyone knows its going to open big, just a matter of how big. Our prediction here at is for $75 million.

Dead Man Down had a 52% bump to 1,743 tweets on Thursday, bringing its week tally to 4,134. Right in line with what I had in mind and with a ratio of over 2,000 its not going to bring in much more than the $5 million we have predicted.

Thursday Morning Update: Oz: The Great And Powerful had a healthy 69% increase to 2,769 tweets on Wednesday, up from 1,638 tweets on Tuesday. This is an even stronger Wednesday than I had imagined, and so far Thursday its on course for 3,500+ tweets. With that in mind it should be able to hit close to 10,000 tweets by the end of the day for the week and with an impending ratio of ~500 that should map out to $20 million on Friday and a 2013 best $75 million over its first three days. Identity Thief and its $34.55 million is currently the biggest opener of the year.

Dead Man Down had a modest bump of 39% to 1,145 tweets, up from 821 tweets the day before. By comparison, Seven Psychopaths had 890 tweets its Wednesday before release. Nothing overly exciting going on here, and even though its seen a big boost today so far (1,057 tweets already as of writing this), its 2,000+ ratio is going to be the big limiting factor. Look for it to reel in $1.7 million on Friday and a disappointing $5 million over the full weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Iron Man 3 released its final trailer yesterday and boy was it a doozy. It accounted for more tweets that all top 20 films combined with 25,821.  The first trailer for the film back in October last year nabbed a whopping 105,000 tweets but the one which aired during the Super Bowl could only muster 18,000+. So good sign here that it managed to top thatby a hefty amount.

Oz: The Great And Powerful had a 24% hike to 1,638 tweets on Tuesday, up from 1,321 tweets the day before, enough to see it rise two places to be the 6th most talked about film tracked. Decent bump here for the Sam Raimi-helmed pic and with an even bigger bump today so far it is shaping up nicely for the weekend. With an impending ratio of ~500 it definitely has a great shot at mid to upper teens on Friday based on its current trajectory towards 7,500+ tweets on the week.

Dead Man Down turned in an even bigger bump of 93% to 821 tweets, up from 425 tweets the day before. By comparison, Seven Psychopaths had 911 tweets its Tuesday before release. Despite the hefty bump it is still failing to impress with its overall numbers and with an expected ratio of 2,000+ its going to have a hard time even hitting $3 million on opening day unless it really picks up its game.

Tuesday Morning Update: Oz: The Great And Powerful began its week with a seemingly innocuous 1,321 tweets on the day which was good enough for just 8th place amongst the films tracked. However, before running to judge it bear in mind that its name is pretty atrocious for tracking tweets and while my string I'm using only counts posts that include 'Oz', 'Great' and 'Powerful' that many people simply say they can't wait to see Oz. Unfortunately I can't just search by 'Oz' since there is a lot of unrelated posts utilizing it and even #Oz, namely posts about Australia, Dr. Oz, and even as the abbreviation for ounces. Oh the joys of Twitter tracking! This isn't the first time I've had similar issues with a film and it should mean that its ratio will come in quite low, perhaps even under the 500 mark because even if it had an easy title to search for its appealing to family audiences, a genre which typically has had the lowest of ratios. So in light of this I think this is a very promising start and am anxious to see how it increases as the week goes on.

Dead Man Down on the other hand had no such excuses and simply had a very weak opening day. Its attempting to fill its seats with older males as its primary audience, and while this demographic isn't a hotbed of social media activity for films in general, 425 tweets is still mighty low. By comparison, Seven Psychopaths had 1,212 tweets its Monday before release. This is going to have a very tough time even smelling $10 million on opening weekend with these types of numbers.

Top Movies for the Week of March 4th

Rk Film Wed Thu Week Wed - Thu %
1 (+1) The Hangover Part III 7,006 38,750 46,885 453%
2 (-1) Iron Man 3 24,471 8,054 59,863 -67%
3 (+3) Oz: The Great and Powerful 2,769 3,624 9,352 31%
4 (-) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 3,946 3,541 9,850 -10%
5 (-2) Star Wars: Episode VII 4,932 3,374 8,931 -32%
6 (-1) 21 And Over 3,533 2,928 12,197 -17%
7 (+5) Dead Man Down 1,145 1,743 4,134 52%
8 (+20) Evil Dead 448 1,560 3,086 248%
9 (-1) Jack the Giant Slayer 2,071 1,508 9,547 -27%
10 (-3) Anchorman: The Legend Continues 2,325 1,454 12,981 -37%

Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: Oz: The Great and Powerful, Dead Man Down

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