Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of April 1st

UPDATED: 'Evil Dead' tipped to see double digit opening day

on April 04, 2013 by Alex Edghill

upcoming040503.jpgThursday Morning Update: Evil Dead rose 17% to 17,930 tweets on Wednesday, up from 14,263 tweets on Tuesday. This was the third largest Wednesday of the year behind only Safe Haven's 34,518 tweets and also Texas Chainsaw 3D which saw a massive 326% bump to 30,828 tweets. On the week so far it has raked in 43,907 tweets and will likely end up with just over 70,000. Assuming a ratio of 7,000 expect it to start with $10 million on Friday and $26 million over the full weekend. 

Jurassic Park eased into the top 10 for the first time on the week as it rose 56% to 3,440 tweets, up from 2,207 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 3D had 3,521 tweets its Wednesday before release. With 10,000 tweets on the week looking to be a lock it and assuming a Menace-like ~1,600 ratio we are predicting a Friday total of $6.25 million and $18 million over the full weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Evil Dead rose 22% to 14,263 tweets on Tuesday, up from 11,714 tweets on Monday, though it dropped one spot to #2 on the day thanks to the new trailer for This Is The End which vaulted it into top spot with 15,777 tweets. This was the second largest Tuesday of the year behind only Safe Haven's 22,634 tweets. By comparison, Texas Chainsaw had 7,233 tweets its Tuesday before release. Even with a massive ratio of 7,000+ I don't see how this doesn't top $10 million on Friday given its current trajectory.

Jurassic Park had a solid 79% bump to 2,207 tweets on Tuesday, up from 1,236 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 3D had 2,927 tweets its Tuesday before release. This too is looking to have strong potential, and while it won't come anywhere near Evil Dead on Friday it should play better to family audiences which will allow it to see better holds on Saturday and Sunday. At its current pace (and assuming a ratio similar to Phantom Menace 3D) it should be able to manage $5-$6 million on Friday which should be enough for it to hit upper teens at least.

Tuesday Morning Update: Evil Dead began its week with a massive 11,714 tweets on Monday, good enough to be the top film on the day and the third largest on the year after Movie 43 (red band trailer infused total of 30,279 on its Monday before release) and Safe Haven (22,618). Horrors, especially popular remakes or sequels, tend to have the biggest ratios and are routinely above 7,000. However, I'd be lying if I said this number didn't really impress me thanks to its sheer size. By comparison, Texas Chainsaw had 'just' 8,170 tweets. Its true that a substantial amount of buzz surrounding the film has been faithful fans of the original crying down the film and Hollywood trodding on sacred ground (in their minds anyway). But, no news is bad news and its awareness is clearly substantial which means it should have a great chance of playing well to horror fans. $20 million plus seems likely at this point. 

Jurassic Park is the latest film to be given the 3D rerelease treatment, and on Monday it accounted for 1,236 tweets which was good enough for 16th place. The film will be appealing to fans of the franchise and no doubt their children. This should keep its ratio down though its going to be above that of standard family films due to the popularity of the franchise and this film specifically. Jurassic Park held the record for highest grossing film Internationally upon its 1993 release until Titanic bested it five years later. By comparison, Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 3D had 2,981 tweets its Monday before release. Even considering that Star Wars fans are generally very vocal and that it perhaps appealed to fewer kids than Jurassic Park will I think that the dinos are going to have a hard time reaching the $8 million+ on opening day that The Phantom Menace did last year. Still I'd say $6 to $7 million opening day is possible which would make it a lock for upper teen million at the very least. It should be an interesting race on the weekend with these two films and G.I Joe: Relatiation all looking to be flirting with upper teens to lower $20 millions.

Top Movies for the Week of April 1st

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (+2) Finding Dory 11,798 52,505 64,303 345%
2 (+8) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 2,427 18,284 23,702 653%
3 (-1) Evil Dead 14,263 17,930 32,193 26%
4 (+37) Grown Ups 2 377 13,178 13,859 3395%
5 (-1) Scary Movie 5 5,338 7,263 19,919 36%
6 (-5) This Is The End 15,777 5,259 21,845 -67%
7 (-1) Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters 5,127 5,170 15,331 1%
8 (-) Olympus Has Fallen 3,082 5,047 12,538 64%
9 (-4) The Host (2013) 5,281 3,531 12,057 -33%
10 (+1) Jurassic Park 3D 2,207 3,440 6,883 56%

Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: Evil Dead, Jurassic Park 3D

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