Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of April 15th

UPDATED: 'Oblivion' stalls

on April 18, 2013 by Alex Edghill

upcoming041903.jpgThursday Morning Update: Oblivion declined 15% on Wednesday to 3,797 tweets on the day, down from Tuesday's 4,468 tweets. By comparison, Prometheus had 12,928 tweets its Wednesday before release and 46,415 tweets for its entire Monday to Thursday window. It turned this into $21.4 million on its opening day for a ratio of 2,169. When Oblivion began the week with 4,000+ tweets I thought for sure than 25,000+ tweets on the week would have been possible and with its projected ~2,000 ratio that $35 million+ was in the bag. However, it really has stalled on me and now it looks as though it is going to have a hard time even reaching 20,000 tweets on the week. At this point $10.5 million seems to be the ceiling here for Friday which would allow it to hit $31.5 million by Sunday.

Wednesday Morning Update: Oblivion rose 11% on Tuesday to 4,468 tweets, up from 4,041 tweets on Monday. Not the biggest of increases but the overall level is still pretty hefty. By comparison, Prometheus had 10,091 tweets its Tuesday before release. A ratio similar to Prometheus' 2,169 should be in order here if not a tad lower. As such a Friday of ~$10+ million seems to be assured but its going to need to really pick up some steam if it wants to make a run at mid-upper $30 millions like I mentioned yesterday.

Tuesday Morning Update: Oblivion kicked off its release week with 4,041 tweets on Monday which allowed it to sneak into the top 10. This type of sci-fi fare generally appeals best to males of a wide demographic and though Cruise's draw has taken a serious hit in recent years with the female persuasion he is still a very viable carrot to lure males to theaters. The best comparison I can think of here is Prometheus which had 8,263 tweets its Monday before release. While this might not be on track for a $50 million+ opening I do think it has a strong shot of besting the mid $30 millions since its going to get a much better expansion from Friday through Sunday as its not opening in the Summer like Prometheus did. Its Tuesday and Wednesday expansions will be telling but so far things are looking very rosy for the release, especially since it has already raked in over $60 million worldwide after its first week of release for Universal.  

Top Movies for the Week of April 15th

Rk Film Mon Tue Week Mon - Tue %
1 (-) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 118,095 25,455 143,550 -78%
2 (+1) The Great Gatsby (2013) 10,074 14,105 24,179 40%
3 (+22) Star Trek Into Darkness 1,017 6,769 7,786 566%
4 (-2) Scary Movie 5 11,785 5,652 17,437 -52%
5 (+5) Oblivion (2013) 4,041 4,468 8,509 11%
6 (-) Evil Dead 6,397 4,383 10,780 -31%
7 (-3) Iron Man 3 9,196 3,477 12,673 -62%
8 (-1) Man of Steel 5,843 3,153 8,996 -46%
9 (+28) Transformers 4 556 2,702 3,258 386%
10 (-1) 42 (2013) 5,150 2,563 7,713 -50%

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