Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of April 22nd

UPDATED: 'Pain And Gain' set to easily best 'Big Wedding'

on April 25, 2013 by Alex Edghill

upcoming042613.jpgThursday Morning Update: Pain And Gain rose just 14% on Wednesday to 1,646 tweets, up from 1,444 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Hit And Run had 1,656 tweets its Wednesday before release while Contraband had 3,170. I have been waiting and waiting for this to explode on the week but it just never came which speaks volumes to its appeal and the awareness (or lack thereof) of its target audience. It is on course for only 7,000 tweets on the week, and even if I give it a ratio of 1,395 like Contraband it is going to struggle to reach $5 million on Friday and $14.75 over the full weekend. While this will be more than enough to handily beat out The Big Wedding its going to fall far short of the returning Oblivion for the weekly crown.

The Big Wedding and its struggles continued on Wednesday as it rose 28% to 308 tweets, up from 241 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Hope Springs had 1,387 tweets its Wednesday before release, Something Borrowed had 914 and It's Complicated had 300. While its true that the film's target demographic of older women generally have very low ratios, even if this comes in with a 300 it will only hit $3 million on Friday based on its current track. As such look for a disappointing $9.25 million over the full weekend. Perhaps its just one too many weddng themed movies for the actors involved, but it would be the first time in Katherine Heigl's career that she has starred in a film that opened in more than 2,000 theaters that didn't crack double digits on opening weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Pain And Gain saw a strong 66% increase on Tuesday to 1,444 tweets, up from 887 tweets the day before. By comparison, Hit And Run had 1,472 tweets its Tuesday before release while Contraband had 2,690. Despite the solid bump it is really lagging behind its comparisons. Even if it misses the female demographic totally which will keep its ratio low the best I can see it doing on Friday would be $5 or $6 million. 

The Big Wedding continued its struggles as it only saw a 15% rise to 241 tweets on Tuesday, up from Monday's 209 tweets. By comparison, Hope Springs had 674 tweets its Tuesday before release, Something Borrowed had 918 and It's Complicated had 320. These numbers are pretty poor, even after taking its low ratio outlook into consideration. $5 million Friday seems to be the best case scenario here with $3-$4 million looking more realistic at this moment in time.

Tuesday Morning Update: Pain And Gain finished Monday with 887 tweets which was only good enough for 16th place on the day amongst the films tracked. Both Wahlberg and Johnson have a proven track record of filling seats with both genders and the film is no doubt hoping to leverage that. So far though it really has struggled to put up solid numbers and its relative lack of tweets despite its starpower hints at the fact that younger females are shunning it completely. By comparison, Hit And Run had 798 tweets its Monday before release while Contraband had 1,741. This definitely doesn't look destined to breakout given these numbers and right now I would say teen millions is its upside.

The Big Wedding had even bigger troubles on Monday as all it could manage was 209 tweets. This gave it the 48th highest number of tweets on the day which is one of the lowest rankings that I have ever seen. The good news though is that this film is playing directly to the older female demographic which has some uber-low ratios in general. By comparison, Hope Springs had 549 tweets its Monday before release, Something Borrowed had 463 and It's Complicated had 298. Its still not out of the woods yet and will need to pull up its socks and show some increases through the week but it has a decent shot of besting Pain And Gain when the dust settles given these comparisons.

Top Movies for the Week of April 22nd

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (-) Thor: The Dark World 65,762 23,385 97,453 -64%
2 (+1) Iron Man 3 10,628 21,365 39,075 101%
3 (-1) The Great Gatsby (2013) 13,930 12,138 39,662 -13%
4 (+6) The Bling Ring 2,195 7,837 10,224 257%
5 (+2) After Earth 2,609 5,257 8,050 101%
6 (+2) Man of Steel 2,432 3,884 9,264 60%
7 (-1) Scary Movie 5 2,983 3,602 11,228 21%
8 (-3) Oblivion (2013) 3,388 2,789 10,683 -18%
9 (+6) Finding Dory 1,114 2,121 5,199 90%
10 (+35) Divergent 292 1,843 2,478 531%
13 (-) Pain And Gain 1,444 1,646 3,977 14%
37 (+12) The Big Wedding 241 308 758 28%

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Tags: Pain and Gain, The Big Wedding

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