Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of April 8th

UPDATED: '42' tipped to edge out 'Scary Movie 5'

on April 11, 2013 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming041203.jpgThursday Morning Update: Scary Movie 5 finished Wednesday with 8,718 tweets, up 5% from Tuesday's 8,288 tweets. By comparison, A Haunted House had 8,528 tweets on its Wednesday before release. All week I've been waiting for it to really take off and explode but it just has never come which is a big limiting factor on its potential in my books. A Haunted House had a ratio of just under 6,000 and even if it manages to best that and come in at 5,000 its only on target for 35,000 tweets on the week. As such I'm thinking $7 million for Friday and $18 million for the full weekend at max which will only be good enough for silver.

42 once again had a decent bump on Wednesday, rising 35% to 4,273 tweets, up from 3,158 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Moneyball had 3,076 tweets its Wednesday before release, and Trouble With The Curve had 1,837. With my 2,000 ratio in mind and its projected 15,000 tweets by the end of the day look for $7.5 million on Friday and $20.75 million on the full weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Scary Movie 5 remained relatively flat on Tuesday, rising just over 1% to 8,288 tweets, up from 8,180 tweets on Monday. By comparison, A Haunted House had 10,873 tweets on its Tuesday before release. The lack of expansion from Monday to Tuesday is not the best of signs here and gives me serious doubts about its potential. Considering that three of the four films in the franchise opened to over $40 million I have no doubt its backers at Dimension were seeing green all over when they got the project off the ground. Its a reboot of the series as the lead characters from the first four films are not returning (Anna Faris and Regina Hall), this is in essense an entirely new film that just borrows the name from the franchise. Perhaps that explains its lack of traction. Unless today brings a significant bump in tweets I have a hard time seeing $20 million for the weekend.

42 experienced a 38% bump in traffic to 3,158 tweets on Tuesday, up from 2,283 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Moneyball had 3,428 tweets its Tuesday before release, and Trouble With The Curve had 1,759. A decent bump here for the film, and with a ratio estimate of 2,000 it is well on course for mid to upper teens on the weekend. I'm leaning towards this coming out on top for the weekend but will wait until tomorrow's numbers before making final judgement.

Tuesday Morning Update: Scary Movie 5 started its release week with a hefty 8,180 tweets on the day. It should appeal primarily to younger moviegoers and also some horror fans no doubt. The tricky part with it is that since it contains loads of popular celebrities (including everyone's favourite whipping boy Charlie Sheen) its buzz levels are intrinsically higher than most other films. No matter the genre, I have found that a large number of known actors really boosts the ratio and can really be misleading at face value. That coupled with the fact that the horror genre generally has the highest ratios anyway. By comparison, the similarly targeted A Haunted House had 10,090 tweets on its Monday before release. We will see how it plays out this week and whether it remains relatively flat like Haunted House did or expands from here. My first impression is that $20 million might be a tall ask baring some solid expansions into 5 figures.

42 was equally impressive on Monday despite coming in much lower at 2,283 tweets on the day. It will skew significantly older than Scary Movie 5 which will bring its ratio down for sure. By comparison, Moneyball had 3,004 tweets its Monday before release, and Trouble With The Curve had 1,199. I'd expect a ratio here in the 1,500 - 2,000 range which right away puts this in mid to upper teens territory on the weekend. It might be a tight race for top spot this upcoming weekend.

Top Movies for the Week of April 8th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (+5) Elysium 5,374 17,951 24,644 234%
2 (-1) Evil Dead 12,142 11,083 42,789 -9%
3 (-) Scary Movie 5 8,288 8,718 25,186 5%
4 (-2) Finding Dory 9,935 5,241 22,907 -47%
5 (+10) Oblivion (2013) 2,159 5,181 8,695 140%
6 (+3) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 3,758 5,016 12,324 33%
7 (+5) 42 (2013) 3,158 4,273 9,714 35%
8 (+2) Iron Man 3 3,287 3,304 9,810 1%
9 (-5) The Great Gatsby (2013) 7,620 2,775 13,414 -64%
10 (+6) Interstellar 1,929 2,132 4,303 11%

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Tags: Scary Movie 5, 42
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