Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of June 17th

UPDATED: Bullish signs for both openers

on June 20, 2013 by Alex Edghill

upcoming062113.jpgThursday Morning Update: World War Z continued to turn heads on Twitter as it rose 53% to 18,164 tweets on Wednesday, up from 11,858 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Prometheus had 12,928 tweets its Wednesday before release on its way to 46,415 tweets during its Monday to Thursday ramp-up. Its numbers have been beyond impressive so far this week, especially in light of the Prometheus comparison. While some might argue that the combination of Pitt and zombies is just a tweet magnet, I contend that the Aliens franchise that spawned Prometheus is right up there in terms of appeal. It is projected to hit 60,000 tweets on the week and even assuming a bigger ratio of ~3,500 it should be able to hit $17 million on Friday 

Monsters University jumped 65% on Wednesday to 16,744 tweets, up from 10,177 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Toy Story 3 had 17,346 tweets its Wednesday before release, Cars 2 had 8,347, and Brave had 5,266. Giant numbers again for the film which is turning out to be a huge success in buzz creation on the service. Toy Story 3 secured a ratio of 1,574 but that was three years ago. In general with how ratios have increased over the years thanks to increased focus from marketing teams and an uptick in overall usage for film by end users I could see that ratio rising to ~2,000 at least. That would allow the Pixar release to hit $30 million on Friday and $78 million over the full weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: World War Z rose 42% to 11,858 tweets on Tuesday, up from 8,370 tweets on Monday. This was enough to supplant Monsters University on the day and overall just a really strong sign for its potential. By comparison, Prometheus had 10,091 tweets its Tuesday before release and with World War Z likely to appeal to similar target audience I could see the ratios of these two being very similar. With two days in a row over Prometheus' totals I am really starting to believe this has the potential to eclipse the $50 million mark. It is still very rare for two films to pass this mark in their opening weekend but this weekend might very well be one of those special times.

Monsters University was less fortunate on Tuesday as it fell 20% to 10,177 tweets, down from  12,788 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Toy Story 3 had 12,288 tweets its Tuesday before release, Cars 2 had 6,235, and Brave had 5,671. I'm not particularly worried about the drop as animated films are notorious for mid-week falls in totals (both Toy Story 3 and Cars 2 fell from Monday to Tuesday). Its overall levels are massive and as of right now its opening day basement would appear to be in the $20 - $25 million range if Toy Story 3' ratio proves to be valid.

Tuesday Morning Update: Monsters University started its week with a stellar 12,788 tweets. This was the second largest Monday for an animated film on Twitter after fellow Pixar alum Toy Story 3's 13,389 tweets way back in June 2010. Other notable comparisons included Cars 2 which had 6,333 tweets its Monday before release, and Brave which had 5,295. Toy Story 3 had a ratio of 1,574 which might be the best marker here, though three years of rising Twitter ratios in general could see that number move into the 2,000s easily. One warning sign is the fact that the 3D rerelease of Monster's Inc. had a whopping ratio of over 7,000 this past Christmas which seems to indicate that the franchise has great draw here on Twitter which could inflate ratios even further. Its expansion through the week will be of particular interest, but with the first film being a massive success and huge marketing push I have a hard time seeing how this doesn't do very well.

World War Z brought up the rear on Monday with an impressive 8,370 tweets. The film has a lot going for it in a big marketing push, zombies, and Brad Pitt, three things which should see it hitting a pretty wide audience base. Pitt will fill seats with women who otherwise wouldn't be caught dead watching a zombie thriller, while the zombies will attract men who otherwise wouldn't be caught dead watching a Brad Pitt movie. Its a big win win! By comparison, Prometheus had a similar 8,263 tweets its Monday before release. $40 million plus is definitely a possibility here. Of course that won't make a dent in its reported $400 million budget. That is no doubt part of the reason why Brad Pitt is making appearances all over the place introducing the movie to audiences at screenings hoping to boost word of mouth and interest.  

Top Movies for the Week of June 17th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (+27) Anchorman: The Legend Continues 878 38,235 39,565 4255%
2 (-1) Man of Steel 28,279 28,261 104,985 0%
3 (-1) World War Z 11,858 18,164 38,392 53%
4 (+134) The LEGO Movie 10 17,532 17,547 175220%
5 (-1) Monsters University 10,177 16,744 39,709 65%
6 (-3) This Is The End 11,122 11,527 42,459 4%
7 (-) Despicable Me 2 6,789 8,449 22,081 24%
8 (-3) The Purge 8,209 7,966 28,625 -3%
9 (-1) Grown Ups 2 3,328 5,703 14,452 71%
10 (+3) Finding Dory 2,045 5,217 12,059 155%

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Tags: Monsters University, World War Z

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