Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of July 15th

UPDATED: 'The Conjuring' primed to lead all newcomers

on July 18, 2013 by Alex Edghill

upcoming071913.jpgThursday Morning Update: The Conjuring levelled off on Wednesday as it rose just 10% to 53,886 tweets, up from 48,795 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Sinister had 30,852 tweets its Wednesday before release, while Paranormal Activity 4 had 75,387 tweets. This is clearly destined for big things and is the clear-cut favourite to win the weekend crown. Its on track for 200,000 tweets on the week and even assuming a ratio of ~14,000 like Sinister it should have no trouble bagging $14.25 million on Friday and $34 million on the weekend.

Red 2 had yet another big bump on Wednesday, rising a further 275% to 1,990 tweets on the day, up from 531 tweets on Tuesday. Its gained much more traction that its predecessor on Twitter and the fact that it has over 10 times the traffic is clearly not a sign that its going to open to $200 million. The simple fact is its search string is picking up much more traffic is it approaches its release. Perhaps they did a better job marketing it via social media this time around, that and the fans of the original are much more vocal this time around. Whatever the reason it is on track for just over 5,000 tweets by the end of the day. If I switch gears and give it a ratio of ~700 to line it up with its expected demographics' Twitter draw it is looking at $7.15 million on Friday and $19.5 million on the weekend.

R.I.P.D rose 28% to 1,697 tweets on Wednesday, up from 1,326 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Jonah Hex had 1,425 its Wednesday before release, Men In Black 3 had 3,836 while Hansel And Gretel: Witch Hunters had 7,116. Its official, this is going to hurt everyone's wallets who backed it. With 6,000 tweets being its upper limit it will do well to crawl to $5 million on Friday and $13 million by Sunday.

Turbo continued to defy its name as it snail-crawled its way to 554 tweets on Wednesday, up just 43% from Tuesday's 387 despite it being its first day of release. By comparison, Epic had 988 tweets its first day of release. This is not shaping up well for the film, and while its not disastrous, I have a hard time seeing it even hitting $30 million after its first five days. $28 million by Sunday is all it should be able to slime itself around.

Wednesday Morning Update: The Conjuring continued its rapid ascent on Tuesday as it jumped a further 138% to 48,795 tweets, up from Monday's 20,545 tweets. By comparison, Sinister had 23,288 tweets its Tuesday before release, while The Purge had 61,624 tweets. Simply massive numbers here and while a ratio of over 10k is all but assured as is the norm for the horror genre it is still looking like a surety for an opening day in the teen millions which makes $30 million a possibility so long as it can top 150,000 tweets on the week.

R.I.P.D rose 51% to 1,326 tweets on Tuesday, up from 880 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Jonah Hex had 1,221 its Tuesday before release, Men In Black 3 had 3,836 while Hansel And Gretel: Witch Hunters had 3,306. To be honest this increase (which is slightly above average) was somewhat surprising for me to see. Perhaps it might be able to eek into teen millions after all.

Turbo rose a new opener worst 41% on Tuesday to 387 (up from 275 on Monday) despite it being the day before its release (it is the only new film to be released mid-week). By comparison, Epic had 144 tweets its Tuesday before release. The percentage bump is a tad worrying but not overly so. I would say that a five day opening tally of $30 million is a given but it could have upside to mid $30 millions.

Red 2 had a massive bump to 531 tweets on Tuesday, up significantly from Monday's return of 68. By comparison the first film had 118 tweets just under three years ago. Like I said sequels do tend to have heightened traffic but the massive 600% bump also speaks to other factors influencing the numbers which will no doubt inflate the ratio. It looks set for a strong opening weekend but I wouldn't hold out hope for anything too much about the first film's opening gross.

Tuesday Morning Update: The Conjuring upped its already impressive game on Monday as it rose 140% to 20,545 tweets. Taking square aim at horror lovers it has been a huge success story over the past few weeks on Twitter and based on Monday's returns its going to have a massive weekend. By comparison, Sinister had 18,413 tweets its Monday before release, while The Purge had 62,715 tweets. Its on course for over 50k tweets on Tuesday also which really puts it on track to top $25 million on the weekend at a minimum with a heap of upside. Not bad for a $13 million budget.

R.I.P.D has been on everyone's predicted flop list ever since its first trailer hit last year. The real question is just how bad will it be come opening day. With only 880 tweets on Monday despite a healthy search string and a target audience very familiar with Twitter it just spells bad news. By comparison, Jonah Hex had a very similar 866 tweets its Monday before release, while Hansel And Gretel: Witch Hunters had 1,309. Despite a reported budget of $130 million plus prints and advertising it will be lucky to hit teen millions on opening weekend with these types of numbers.

Now we get into search string hell with the final two wide releases. First up is Turbo, the animated adventure which is hoping to lure in family audiences. The title was very tough to narrow down tweets for, something which is unfortunately (for me anyway) becoming more and more normal in recent years. By comparison, the similarly challenging Epic had 122 tweets its Monday before release. Again its not that these films didn't generate more tweets, but the very common one word title makes it very difficult to narrow down only tweets about the film without including mountains of garbage posts. The idea is that by using a very restrictive but similar search string for these types of films we can compare them directly to still get value from the Twitter numbers. So far so good for Turbo and it is looking like the clear favourite to take the top spot this weekend based on these early week returns.

Last up is Red 2 which is another very difficult one to batten down. The first film really threw me a curveball back in 2010 as up to that point it was one of the most common titles I had to track and really taught me a lesson or two about prediction and what I needed to do going forward to still be able to predict similarly troubling films. Fast forward three years almost and its time to put all of that experience to good use. The first film had 122 tweets its Monday before release as compared to just 68 here for the sequel. Before we read too much into that, its Tuesday number has already zoomed past the Tuesday number for the original and its also not uncommon for sequels to have a higher (or even much higher) ratio. I'm still on the fence as to its potential but with Tuesday looking so strong I think a $20 million opening once again is probable (the first film opened to $21.76 million).

Top Movies for the Week of July 15th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (-) The Conjuring 48,795 53,886 123,226 10%
2 (-) Grown Ups 2 24,472 20,792 84,563 -15%
3 (-) Pacific Rim 13,531 11,144 42,329 -18%
4 (+173) The Fifth Estate 4 10,564 10,570 264000%
5 (-1) Despicable Me 2 9,613 8,797 30,435 -8%
6 (-) The Wolverine 6,429 6,327 16,404 -2%
7 (-2) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 7,517 5,063 15,332 -33%
8 (+1) Fruitvale Station 4,060 3,722 10,988 -8%
9 (+3) Assassin's Creed 2,502 2,771 6,380 11%
10 (+1) Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters 3,405 2,611 8,064 -23%
20 (+26) Red 2 531 1,990 2,589 275%
46 (-26) R.I.P.D. 1,326 1,697 3,903 28%
51 (-) Turbo 387 554 1,216 43%

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Tags: R.I.P.D, The Conjuring, Turbo, Red 2

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