Weekend Estimates: ‘Finding Dory’ Just Keeps Swimming w/ $73.2M; ‘Independence Day: Resurgence’ Invades w/ $41.6M; ‘The Shallows’ Attacks w/ $16.7M; ‘Free State of Jones’ Opens w/ $7.7M

Disney’s Finding Dory floated to the surface of the box office for a second straight weekend with an estimated $72.3 million. With a 45.8 percent decline from last weekend, Pixar’s animated family film had one of the best second-weekend holds among the biggest animated films of the past decade, dropping lower than the 46.2 percent for 2010’s Toy Story 3, 47.4 percent for 2013’s Despicable Me 2, 56.4 percent for 2007’s Shrek the Third, or 57.4 percent for last year’s Minions. This gives Dory the eighth-highest second weekend of all time (or 19th-highest when adjusted for inflation), a notable improvement from last weekend when it notched the 19th-highest opening weekend ever (or 27th-highest adjusted). With a very possible third straight frame atop the box office coming next weekend, if Dory continues its mild declines then it could make a play for becoming the highest-grossing movie of the year.

Its second-weekend drop was higher higher than predecessor Finding Nemo‘s 33.7 percent second-weekend drop back in 2003,  though the sequel clearly had more pre-release anticipation than the original and was thus more front-loaded, so its higher second-weekend drop was not a huge surprise. Dory has grossed $286.55 million through 10 days, 98.9 percent ahead of Nemo‘s $144.04 million 10-day start. (Dory is still quite a bit ahead even after adjusting Nemo‘s numbers for inflation.)  It’s also running 26.2 percent above the $226.88 million 10-day start of Toy Story 3.

Fox’s Independence Day: Resurgence disappointed in second place with an estimated $41.60 million opening. The alien invasion-themed science fiction sequel starring Jeff Goldblum, Bill Pullman, and Liam Hemsworth started with $16.8 million on Friday (including $4.0 million from Thursday night shows), declined 16.6 percent to $14.0 million on Saturday, and dropped another 22.8 percent to $10.8 million on Sunday. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.47 to 1.

To put that into perspective, the original Independence Day opened to $50.22 million… back in 1996! The sequel’s poor reviews and lack of original installment’s lead star Will Smith likely hurt its box office. The film may potentially experience a mild decline next weekend on the Independence Day holiday itself. Earlier this year, the movie Mother’s Day actually saw a substantial percentage increase over the Mother’s Day holiday weekend, although that would probably be too much to expect out of a summer blockbuster like Resurgence.

Warner Bros.’ Central Intelligence came in third with an estimated $18.37 million, a 48.3 percent decline. With $69.30 million through 10 days, it’s running 21.1 percent ahead of the $57.21 million 10-day start of one of Kevin Hart’s previous buddy comedies Get Hard.

Sony/Columbia’s The Shallows opened with an estimated $16.7 million in third place. The shark attack thriller starring Blake Lively started with $6.885 on Friday (including $1.325 million from Thursday night shows), declined 19.0 percent to $5.575 million on Saturday, and dropped 23.9 percent to $4.24 million on Sunday. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.42 to 1.

With an effective marketing campaign and a summer release timed to scare beachgoing audiences like Jaws did some four decades ago, the film did better than many expected. Blake Lively had perhaps primarily been known more for her television acting on the show Gossip Girl more than her film roles, though this film earning back its $17 million budget in its opening weekend alone should demonstrate her box office potential. The film’s audience was 54 percent female audience and 50 percent under age 25, earning a B+ CinemaScore. It starts 26.4 percent above the $13.20 million opening weekend of Lively’s The Age of Adeline last year.

STX Entertainment’s Free State of Jones disappointed with an estimated $7.77 million and fifth place in its opening weekend. The Civil War drama starring Matthew McConaughey started with $2.66 million on Friday (including $365 thousand from Thursday night shows), increased 6.7 percent to $2.84 million on Saturday, and declined 20.0 percent to $2.272 million on Sunday. This places the film’s opening weekend to Friday ratio at a backloaded 2.92 to 1.

Based on a true story, the movie had an even 50-50 male-female audience ratio with 67 percent over age 35. STX reports that the film played strongest in the South, which makes sense the story takes place in the titular Jones County, Mississippi. With a 40 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes and 52 percent score on Metacritic, this is arguably McConaughey’s first film in several years to neither become a box office success nor earn great reviews — following box office hits like Interstellar and The Wolf of Wall Street, and critical hits like Dallas Buyers Club and Mud.

Warner Bros.’ horror The Conjuring 2 declined 48.2 percent to a sixth-place estimated $7.70 million. It’s now earned $86.90 million through 17 days, which is 19.4 percent behind the $107.95 million 17-day start of 2013’s original The Conjuring and 17.3 percent above the $74.08 million 17-day take of 2014’s spinoff Annabelle.

Lionsgate’s Now You See Me 2 declined 39.7 percent to a seventh-place $5.65 million. Its $52.05 million 17-day take is 35.5 percent behind the $80.70 million 17-day start of its 2013 predecessor Now You See Me.

Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse declined 53.4 percent to an eighth-place estimated $2.47 million. Its $151.12 million 31-day start is running 30.2 percent behind the $216.74 million 31-day take of 2014’s X-Men: Days of Future Past and 8.9 percent ahead of the $138.66 million 31-day gross of 2011’s X-Men: First Class.

Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows declined 54.3 percent to an estimated $2.40 million. Its $77.11 million 24-day gross is running 52.5 percent behind the $162.57 million 24-day take of 2014’s predecessor Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

Rounding out the top 10, Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass declined 50.0 percent to $2.14 million. Its $74.57 million 31-day start is running 75.9 percent behind the $309.73 million 31-day gross of 2010 predecessor Alice in Wonderland. (One bright spot for Looking Glass this weekend: it somehow managed to out-earn such films as Warcraft and Me Before You despite playing in about one thousand fewer theaters.)

Overseas Update:

Overseas, Finding Dory continued to lead with an estimated $110.23 million, up more than double from last weekend, in 37 markets. It’s now earned $110.3 million overseas $396.85 million globally. Key grosses to date include $30.2 million in China, $15.2 million in Australia, $7.8 million in Argentina, $6.4 million in Russia, and $4.8 million in Spain.

Independence Day wasn’t too far behind with an estimated $102.12 million opening in 57 markets. Combined with its domestic opening, the film has now earned $143.72 million globally. Key grosses included $37.3 million in China, $7.3 million in South Korea, $7.3 million in the United Kingdom and $6.7 million in Mexico.

Now You See Me 2 earned an estimated $50.9 million overseas, more than triple its total from last weekend, thanks largely to a $43.3 million launch in China. The film has now earned $107.7 million overseas and $159.8 million globally. It’s also made $14.1 million in Russia, $6.3 in Australia, $5.9 million in Brazil, and $5.2 million in Taiwan.

The Conjuring 2 made an estimated $21 million overseas, down 51.2 percent, for a $156 million overseas and $243 million global total. Notable grosses to date include $18.7 million in Mexico, $11.5 million in South Korea, $11.4 million in India, $11.3 million in Indonesia, $11.0 million in the United Kingdom, and $10.9 million in Brazil.

In other notable grosses around the world:

• The Secret Life of Pets opened with $15.2 million overseas in a mere two markets (United Kingdom and Ireland) ahead of its July 8 domestic release.
• Me Before You increased 29.6 percent to $17.5 million, for a $60.1 million overseas and $111 million global total.
• Central Intelligence declined 34.6 percent to $4.7 million in 28 markets, for a $14.3 million overseas and $83.6 million global total.
• X-Men: Apocalypse dropped a sharp 72.2 percent to $3.57 million in 37 markets, for a $374.61 million overseas and $525.73 million global total.

Weekend Estimates for Friday, June 24 – Sunday, June 26, 2016: