Weekend Forecast: ’12 Strong’ & ‘Den of Thieves’ Aim For Older Male Audiences Against Sunday NFL Playoffs

12 Strong and Den of Thieves as the post-MLK frame looks to be a much quieter one than last year when Split broke out beyond all expectations to a $40 million launch.

The former of the two newcomers will hope to leverage its true story into success among military families, although its currently tracking behind the levels of 2016’s 13 Hours (which had a holiday weekend and Michael Bay fan base to further boost its debut). Den of Thieves is performing well ahead of where Triple 9 stood across various social media metrics, with studio expectations currently in the mid-to-high single digit millions. Ultimately, though, the crossover for both openers’ target audience — in combination with the The Commuter slightly out-performing expectations, plus this weekend’s NFL playoff games — has us leaning toward the conservative end for both new releases.

Also of note, Forever My Girl is expected to open in semi-wide release with a possible 600+ locations. Social media traction has been fairly healthy leading up to release, but with no confirmed location count from distributor Roadside Attractions, we’re holding off on official forecasts.

The Weekend Forecast:

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 21 % Change from Last Wknd
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony / Columbia $18,000,000 $312,700,000 -36%
The Post Fox $12,500,000 $45,200,000 -37%
12 Strong Warner Bros. $12,000,000 $12,000,000 NEW
The Greatest Showman Fox $9,200,000 $112,800,000 -26%
Paddington 2 Warner Bros. $7,600,000 $23,900,000 -31%
The Commuter Lionsgate $6,500,000 $25,000,000 -52%
Star Wars: The Last Jedi Disney / Lucasfilm $6,000,000 $603,600,000 -49%
Den of Thieves STX $5,900,000 $5,900,000 NEW
Insidious: The Last Key Universal $5,500,000 $58,200,000 -56%
Proud Mary Sony / Screen Gems $4,400,000 $18,200,000 -56%
Boxoffice Staff

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Reece January 17, 2018

    Jumanji hits 300$ million with a 33$ million opening. Talk about an insane hold

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Bryce January 18, 2018

      Indeed!

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Dave January 17, 2018

    Glad to see star wars wont pass Titanic not even close.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ed January 18, 2018

      No moron

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Sean January 19, 2018

        Nice ad hominem attack, coward. Somebody doesn’t like a movie you clearly are too emotionally invested in and you call him a moron. Pathetic.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      damovieguy January 18, 2018

      Technically it will pass Titanic given that it grossed $600 million in its initial run whereas The Last Jedi will easily surpass that by this weekend.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen January 18, 2018

      Actually, TLJ will pass Blightanic’s first release, which was 600mil. TLJ won’t be able to surpass the overall total (I’m guessing a finish of 620mil), but the Cameron film benefited from two re-releases to finish with a 659mil total. Of course, if we adjust for inflation, then it doesn’t matter.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Charles January 20, 2018

        $650K in that Titanic re-release last month is not really a benefit. The cost of a 2017 ticket in comparison to 1997 is also a benefit, wouldn’t you say?

        Reply
  3. Avatar
    Dan.A January 20, 2018

    Good for Red Sparrow! Can’t wait for that.

    Reply

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