Weekend Forecast: ‘American Made’ & ‘Flatliners’ Set Sights on ‘Kingsman’ Sequel & ‘IT’

September comes to a close this weekend with two major studio releases, but will either be able to overtake Kingsman: The Golden Circle and IT from the top two spots?

Meanwhile, indie openers A Question of Faith and ‘Til Death Do Us Part are expected to debut well outside the top five as they open in less than 700 theaters each. Battle of the Sexes is slated to expand into an estimated 1,200 locations and has been included in our forecast below.

PROS:

  • American Made (Universal) reunites Tom Cruise and director Doug Liman after Edge of Tomorrow (or Live Die Repeat, depending on who you ask) became a well-received hit three years ago. This film’s $59.5 million overseas earnings have marked a solid start for the crime thriller, tying into the film’s encouraging Facebook presence with nearly 118,000 fans so far — notably ahead of where The Accountant stood at the same point before release. The film’s 84 percent Rotten Tomatoes score is another driving factor as the pic hopes to counter-program among adult males.
  • Flatliners (Sony / Columbia) is generating slightly stronger Twitter activity than the Rings sequel/reboot did earlier this year as it hopes to benefit from the wave of success (not to mention that of the nostalgia-driven variety) enjoyed by many horror releases this year. The PG-13 rating could further help achieve that goal with so many R-rated films dominating the market right now, giving teens something to check out.

CONS:

  • American Made enters a competitive fall corridor that already hosts several male-driven films, most notably last week’s opener Kingsman: The Golden Circle and next week’s Blade Runner 2049, which is currently receiving early (though unofficial) praise from hush-hush critics’ screenings. Combined with Cruise’s modest drawing power outside the Mission: Impossible franchise in recent years, as well as lukewarm Twitter activity that currently trails War Dogs and Jack Reacher: Never Go Back by significant margins, this film may be looking at a slower start out of the gate than once expected, but that will hopefully build into long-term staying power through October.
  • Flatliners‘ biggest point of competition will obviously be the remaining holdover business of IT, which continues to set records for the horror genre going into its fourth weekend. In addition, the film’s review embargo remains in place at the time of this report’s Thursday morning publishing (rarely a positive sign) and Facebook growth trails that of comparable films like the 2015 and 2013 remakes of Poltergeist and Carrie, respectively.

The Weekend Forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, October 1 % Change
IT Warner Bros. (New Line) $16,500,000 $290,600,000 -45%
Kingsman: The Golden Circle Fox $16,400,000 $65,730,000 -58%
American Made Universal $13,900,000 $13,900,000 NEW
The LEGO Ninjago Movie Warner Bros. $13,800,000 $37,300,000 -33%
Flatliners Sony / Columbia $7,600,000 $7,600,000 NEW
Battle of the Sexes Fox Searchlight $5,750,000 $6,410,000 +1016%

For client and media requests relating to box office analyses, please contact Shawn Robbins

Boxoffice Staff

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    John September 28, 2017

    That American Made prediction is laughable after the reviews it is getting. Get ready to be proven wrong when it hits $20 million.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      tOST September 28, 2017

      I actually thought its too high, lol.
      Can’t see it getting more than 10 million.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      KZ September 28, 2017

      Be sure to report back here when it doesn’t…

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen September 29, 2017

      I would have expected it to do 20mil or more since the trailers make it look fun and the reviews are strong. But that social media reaction is surprising: worse than War Dogs and Jack Reacher 2, movies that looked (and were) mediocre at best? Disappointing. So here’s hoping you’re right and the movie does better than the tracking suggests, but don’t be surprised if it’s closer to their prediction. On the flip side, I don’t think it has to make a lot globally to be a hit, so an average domestic run might not be too bad.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Matt D. September 28, 2017

    Doubt this prediction. Here is mine.

    1. Kingsman 2- $19.5 M
    2. American Made- $17 M
    3. It- $16 M
    4. LEGO Ninjago- $10.5 M
    5. Battle of the Sexes- $8 M (Flatliners is getting terrible reviews and probably will make at least $6-7 M)

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    DangerS September 28, 2017

    I think:

    American Made – $19M
    Kingsman – $18M
    IT – $16M
    Ninjago – $11M

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Russell September 29, 2017

    1. Kingsman ($19M, -52%)
    2. American Made ($17M)
    3. It ($16M, -48%)
    4. Ninjago ($12M, -47%)
    5. Flatliners ($10M)
    6. Battle of the Sexes ($5M)

    Reply

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