Weekend Forecast: ‘Annabelle: Creation,’ ‘The Nut Job 2,’ & ‘The Glass Castle’

August rolls on this weekend as three new wide releases will try to liven up the market a bit.

Note: The original publication of this story included a typo for The Glass Castle‘s forecast. It has been corrected in the table below.

Our analysis and forecast:

PROS:

  • Annabelle: Creation is benefiting from several key factors, with goodwill from The Conjuring universe films being chief among them. 2014’s first Annabelle spin-off was a big financial success, earning $84.3 million domestically. The lack of breakout films since mid-July — in addition to the lack of horror films this summer — also leaves the market primed for something to come in ahead of expectations. Initial reviews are very positive (82 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), social media buzz is healthy overall, and sources tell Boxoffice that pre-sales are rivaling those of The Conjuring 2.
  • The Nut Job 2 enters a market lacking any high-level, family-targeted performers. The first film was a surprise success with a $64 million run in January 2014. This could be positioned decently as parents with young kids look for something they haven’t already seen this summer.
  • The Glass Castle has enjoyed a wave of positive social media activity recently. As a counter-programmer, its strongest advantages are recent Oscar-winner Brie Larson, Woody Harrelson, and an existing fan base from Jeannette Walls’ original novel.

CONS:

  • Annabelle: Creation‘s Twitter footprint isn’t quite as strong as the first film’s, an unusual sign for a sequel. The summer’s trend of franchise fatigue could strike here, but the positive reviews and marketing should counter most of that downside.
  • The Nut Job 2 is likewise posting very modest social buzz, coming in well behind the Twitter and Facebook levels of Planes: Fire and Rescue. With many schools starting back around the country, and a few family-friendly holdovers in the market already, this may not find the same level of success as the first film.
  • The Glass Castle is only opening in an estimated 1,400 locations, somewhat limiting its earning potential. Marketing has also been very muted, while mixed reviews (60 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) will likely cap its ability to expand far beyond fans of the book.

The Weekend Forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, August 13 % Change
Annabelle: Creation Warner Bros. / New Line $30,000,000 $30,000,000 NEW
Dunkirk Warner Bros. $11,990,000 $155,400,000 -30%
The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature Open Road Films $10,000,000 $10,000,000 NEW
The Dark Tower Sony / Columbia $7,660,000 $34,650,000 -60%
Girls Trip Universal $6,840,000 $97,310,000 -40%
The Emoji Movie Sony / Columbia $6,000,000 $63,580,000 -50%
Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony / Columbia $5,750,000 $306,590,000 -35%
Kidnap (2017) Aviron $5,210,000 $19,380,000 -48%
Atomic Blonde Focus Features $4,490,000 $42,870,000 -45%
Detroit Annapurna Pictures $4,280,000 $14,900,000 -40%
The Glass Castle Lionsgate $4,250,000 $4,250,000 NEW

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

8 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Austin August 09, 2017

    Umm…Annabelle 2’s Twitter footprint is lower than the first one because the first one, though it was trash, was highly anticipated, and skepticism surrounding this upcoming one has not really died down. Annabelle 2 RT score of 83% is down from 94% a few days ago, so perhaps the movie would have warm reception on par with Lights Out last year (I see something around 76%). However, whereas Lights Out was a rather original horror film, Annabelle 2, like Ouija: Origin of Evil, had its expectations set by a previous installment, so it will perform worse than its predecessor…an obvious observation.
    I’m not sure if Kidnap will hold that well, but that $10.2 million opening was far better than my expectations, and audience competition with Girls Trip caused the latter to suffer a steeper drop than what would be expected. I think a drop of 52% sounds reasonable for a film that perhaps already acquired breakout status.
    Nut Job 2 won’t have good reviews; that is certain. Its performance (or lack thereof) may seal Lego Ninjago’s potential overperformance in comparison to the established forecasts. Nut Job 2 is a perfect recipe for a film that wants to earn under $10 million on its opening weekend.
    Everything else looks reasonable on what may be the best weekend of August (which isn’t saying much at all).

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Kimbo Slice August 09, 2017

      Kidnap opened higher than I thought it would as well. It had been online free for at least 2 months before it hit theaters. Not great at all but it was a fun B movie that’s really over the top and held together by a determined Halle Berry. $5 million seems reasonable.

      Annabelle will amass $26 million.

      And looks like Atomic Blonde will eventually reach $50 million. Not the breakout hit they were expecting. I didn’t like it. The trailers were far more entertaining than the movie.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin August 09, 2017

        For me, Atomic Blonde had great action, was interesting, and the pacing was good enough, but the style was hit-and-miss, the characters were very weak, and the movie doesn’t have much that hasn’t been done before. It was an okay movie from a director who co-directed John Wick with a better director. Atomic Blonde has an arthouse movie quality to it, but tried appealing to a mainstream audience with its style; I didn’t think that would work well from the get-go, and the finished product only served to remind viewers why Baby Driver better-handled its sense of style. Yet, Atomic Blonde’s director is behind the cameras of Deadpool 2, so take from that what you will.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 10, 2017

      Actually, that forecast for Annabelle: Creation might be in jeopardy now. RT has it at 69% and perhaps decreasing. It could still go for a $27 million forecast, but if the reviews head down a path that Valerian’s reviews did, then this could be another front-loaded movie.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Kimbo Slice August 11, 2017

        Annabelle is actually overperforming. I was way off. They are forecasting 40million this wknd.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Reece August 10, 2017

    Glass Castle will open barely above or just below $1 million. No reviews, no marketing, and only 1 new star? 4 million seems like way too much

    Baby Driver will cross 100 million, wonder woman 400 million

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Karen August 10, 2017

      $1 mil at 1,400 theaters would be about $714 per theater this weekend. No way it does that bad. $4 mil would be about $2,857 per theater which sounds about right.

      Wonder WomAn crossed $400 mil yesterday.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 10, 2017

      Upon the time your message was posted, The Glass Castle had 38 reviews, all pointing out that Glass Castle is a mediocre film. Now it has over 50 with no signs of escape from mediocrity. Also, it has two stars, not just one. So, $4 million seems reasonable, but don’t expect success from it.
      Nut Job 2 obviously gets terrible reviews (14%), but how is it that a horrible sequel to a horrible movie gets better reviews than The Emoji Movie? Oh well, I guess they’re all bad, but barely anything is worse than The Emoji Movie.
      Annabelle: Creation has a 67% on RT, which is a mixed result. Here’s hoping it will at least get a better Cinemascore than its predecessor. Otherwise, its performance may end up underwhelming after all.

      Reply

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