Weekend Forecast: ‘Cars 3,’ ‘All Eyez on Me,’ ‘Rough Night,’ & ’47 Meters Down’ Take on Reigning ‘Wonder Woman’

This weekend brings a handful of newcomers to the market as June continues to roll on. Our analysis and forecast:

Cars 3
Disney / Pixar

PROS:

  • The Cars franchise remains a fairly popular attraction, particularly among its target young male audience.
  • Although Captain Underpants opened to healthy numbers two weeks ago, this is effectively the first “marquee” animated release of summer — mainly thanks to Pixar’s branding, which remains a strong attraction for families.
  • Social media activity is relatively healthy, particularly on Facebook with the franchise’s 16.6 million+ fans.

CONS:

  • The 2011 sequel Cars 2 is one of Pixar’s very few films to generate less than strong word of mouth. That, plus the six-year gap, will likely result in some franchise fatigue for this one.
  • Reviews, while mostly positive, stand at a modest 66 percent on Rotten Tomatoes thus far. That’s below typical Pixar benchmarks, which could have some families opting to wait for Despicable Me 3 at the end of the month.

All Eyez On Me
Lionsgate / Summit

PROS:

  • Tupac Shakur remains an iconic figure in the world of hip hop two decades after his death. Fans are definitely interested in this biopic.
  • Twitter activity is very positive, coming in ahead of the trends of films like Get On Up.

CONS:

  • With no reviews available at this time, it’s difficult to gauge the potential reception by audiences. In turn, this may or may not end up much more front-loaded than the likes of Straight Outta Compton.
  • Facebook growth is healthy overall, but trailing the numbers of Get On Up.

Rough Night
Sony / Columbia

PROS:

  • The ensemble cast led by Scarlett Johansson and Kate McKinnon’s star power should be of significant help in appealing to female audiences, particularly for “girls night out” events.
  • The lack of breakout R-rated comedies so far this summer leaves open space in the market for this one.
  • Social media is noticeably healthier than Snatched up to this point.

CONS:

  • Reviews are heading south, unfortunately, as it stands at 48 percent as of this writing.
  • Competition for female audiences may be somewhat challenging still as Wonder Woman continues to attract crowds thanks to its stellar word of mouth.

47 Meters Down
Entertainment Studios

PROS:

  • The PG-13 rating could help attract teen audiences in the mood for a thriller.
  • Social media buzz has grown in recent days, indicating some potential upside.

CONS:

  • Coming from a new distributor, market reach is a major concern as awareness for the title isn’t particularly high compared to a film like The Shallows.

Check out our top ten weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, June 18 % Change
Cars 3 Disney $56,000,000 $56,000,000 NEW
Wonder Woman Warner Bros. $35,110,000 $265,240,000 -40.00%
All Eyez On Me Lionsgate / Summit $20,000,000 $20,000,000 NEW
Rough Night Sony / Columbia $16,000,000 $16,000,000 NEW
The Mummy (2017) Universal $15,210,000 $56,710,000 -52.00%
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Fox $6,700,000 $56,320,000 -45.00%
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Disney $5,350,000 $146,040,000 -50.00%
47 Meters Down Entertainment Studios $4,500,000 $4,500,000 NEW
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Disney $3,910,000 $373,240,000 -38.00%
It Comes At Night A24 $3,110,000 $11,400,000 -48.00%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

26 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS June 14, 2017

    The Mummy is going to drop over 60% due to toxic word of mouth.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    J June 14, 2017

    Way too high on “All Eyes on Me”. I’ve literally heard nothing about it and no one is talking about it. Also, Rough Night too high.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      justin June 14, 2017

      j you’ve been wrong so much, lol. All Eyes on Me will overperform like A Madea Halloween, Straight Outta Compton,The Perfect Guy & No Good Deed. Every year, a movie with an all black cast does better than people think because it’s a group that’s pretty much ignored except for 1 or 2 movies a year.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        J June 15, 2017

        I haven’t been wrong on everything. And your generally right about those type of movies over performing but in this case there hasn’t been much buzz around it, and there is a ton of competition.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin June 15, 2017

        For All Eyez on Me, only three reviews are out, but two of them are negative. At this point in time, Straight Outta Compton would be seeing an 86% on Rotten Tomatoes from many critics that built buzz for the movie the week before its release.
        Medea Halloween overperformed when there were a lack of comedy movies in October compared to All Eyez on Me, a biography that will most likely earn less positive reviews than Straight Outta Compton.
        Also, while mentioning thrillers like No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy, you forgot to mention similar thrillers that indicated a downward trend: When the Bough Breaks and Unforgettable. Both movies (one of them is from Screen Gems, the company behind No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy) earned less than $10 million in their opening weekend. Note too that the audience of thriller movies generally don’t see biographical movies.
        My guess is amid a forecast of negative reviews and audience potential, All Eyes on Me may fall short of $20, the same thing that may happen to Rough Night this weekend. For All Eyes on Me to potentially pass $20 million, it needs positive reviews, something that may not happen.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Justin June 15, 2017

          I don’t think it needs good reviews. All Eyes on Me reminds me of Notorious from 2009 which opened to 20.4 million in only 1,642 theaters & than fell off a cliff the next weekend. All Eyes on Me feels exactly like this.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        J June 15, 2017

        Reviews are abysmal- even worse than the FIFTH Pirates movie! How is that possible! Oh no! Yeah there is no chance of it overperforming, now the only question is if it can hit 20 million . My guess is no. It will make 10-15 million.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Justin June 16, 2017

          Wrong again, lol. Poor J.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            J June 16, 2017

            Wrong about reviews being worse than Pirates 5. Yeah, sure. Whatever makes you feel better.

        • Avatar
          Justin June 16, 2017

          Yeah there is no chance of it overperforming, now the only question is if it can hit 20 million . My guess is no. It will make 10-15 million. That’s what you were completely wrong about but just ignore that, lol.

          Reply
    • Avatar
      Check it June 15, 2017

      You must be white, then; in the urban space, it’s massive. It will over perform.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        J June 15, 2017

        And you must not be. So?

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Ed June 15, 2017

          No

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Check It June 16, 2017

          Nope, I’m white, but I guess I just have a better handle on the market than you.

          Anyway, you were wrong, I was right – $35-40m this weekend. I made that same prediction a couple of months ago, and I also said this will be one of the rare urban film that travels.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            J June 17, 2017

            Wrong. Check the numbers it will not get to 40 million.

          • Avatar
            Austin June 18, 2017

            Not anymore! As of tonight, estimates for the movie sagged back down to $27 million and the numbers could be even lower when Monday afternoon’s actuals roll in. Turns out that nearly half (if not more than half) of the opening weekend gross was made during Friday (Tupac Day). This thing is incredibly front-loaded, and even if the movie is critic proof, it only works for a week because the movie will suffer a steep drop after that first week. The question now is how steep.

      • Avatar
        Brad June 15, 2017

        In the urban space, it is massive. One theater tonight near Detroit, has it on 6 screens out of 14 tonight. All are sold out for the night, and everything from 6pm forward is sold out for Friday already. Saturday night has a couple sell outs too. Another theater also will have sell outs tonight and this weekend.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Austin June 16, 2017

          It doesn’t mean it’s doing that well in all of Detroit or in other urban spaces.
          However, one thing I didn’t see coming is why the studio chose this weekend in particular to release All Eyez on Me. Today, it is celebrating Tupac Day. That’s why it’s probably doing that well to begin with! When the day passes, this could effectively help the movie get past $20 million for the weekend; in the end though, it could also create a more front-loaded movie.

          Reply
  3. Avatar
    Austin June 14, 2017

    The Mummy could face a bit of competition from All Eyez on Me if the reviews are positive (they probably won’t be considering they’re taking this long to come to light), so I’d be kind of surprised if All Eyez on Me earns $20+ million. Also, The Mummy will get $14 million or lower.
    Considering Pixar releases, Cars 3 holds the second weakest reviews (67%) in front of only Cars 2. I’m currently debating whether Cars 3 could barely inch past $60 million, because I think it could still be done.
    Rough Night is now at 50% and it is virtually impossible to get a positive rotten tomatoes score (60% or higher), but it will be the highest reviewed raunchy comedy of the year (not saying much since these types of reviews are typical of raunchy comedies) provided it doesn’t get struck with a wave of negative reviews tonight and tomorrow. However, a costly mistake is releasing it when Wonder Woman has a hold on female audiences. The typical reviews released about Rough Night says to moviegoers that there isn’t anything new and the comedy is hit and miss, so moviegoers may find more to enjoy with Wonder Woman and shrink Rough Night’s performance to anywhere between $14-17 million this week and let it drop 55% or more.
    It Comes at Night is probably not dropping 48%; it is dropping 58% or more. I don’t think that ‘D’ Cinemascore is helping the movie. Also, I don’t think 47 Meters Down is earning less than $5 million this week; that 75% on rotten tomatoes so far may sound a bit too good to ignore.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 14, 2017

      (Adding to previous comment regarding 47 Meters Down): Also consider the time when The Gift broke out and became successful from a studio (STX) that had no prior box office records. It could happen here, but I don’t expect 47 Meters Down to be as successful as The Gift or The Shallows.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      opi June 15, 2017

      The Boss Baby,Sing and Secret life of Pets didn’t have great reviews either,but nonetheless they had great openining weekends.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin June 15, 2017

        Umm… Sing and Secret Life of Pets did get decent reviews (anywhere between 65 and 73%) on Rotten Tomatoes. Boss Baby got mixed reviews (55%). Out of those movies, two of them overperformed due to their concept (Boss Baby and Secret Life of Pets) while the other one released during the Christmas holiday, but there’s a catch this time around: Cars 3 is from Pixar!
        Pixar’s movies normally have reviews over 70% and audiences expect a high quality movie from them. This time, we’re talking about a movie at 67% that’s part of three out of five of Pixar’s weakest movies: the ‘Cars’ franchise. I think that the reputation of this franchise and the anticipation of this movie was practically set in stone by Cars 2. The best comparison I can make with this movie is Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur, which had similar reviews (albeit a bit more positive) and made around $60 million opening weekend. Whereas The Good Dinosaur was something new for Pixar, Cars 3 is part of a franchise that was crippled by the previous outing.
        On one hand, Cars 3, even with an easy victory in sight, has Wonder Woman competing ferociously for the female and some of the family audience. It doesn’t help that a few more families may just see Captain Underpants instead. On the other side of things is Despicable Me 3 that’s coming out in two weeks with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 83% so far. I think that Cars 3 is in a very tough spot overall, and most likely, it probably won’t break out.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 15, 2017

      Correction Acknowledged on Rough Night: It is sitting at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes and has seen an increasingly positive score since it bottomed out at 38%. This movie now has a good chance of sitting between 50-65% as of right now. If these reviews connect, two things could happen:
      1. With a very small shot at $20+ million, the movie could reach anywhere between $19 and $21 million.
      2. It’s second week may be less out of slight curiosity from moviegoers. Instead of taking a 55-60% plunge like many raunchy comedies, it may take a 52-54% drop. However, if it functions like Alien: Covenant, where the audience rushed to the movie during the first week, Rough Night may just take that 55-60% plunge anyway.
      My forecast is for it to still fall short of $20 million with $17-19 million a likely target.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Holden June 15, 2017

    One thing that MIGHT hurt “Rough Night”: Its negative buzz among feminist critics, who were up in arms against that movie once the trailer hit, because of its fat shaming and “kill a sex worker for laughs” plot (even if it’s a man). I can imagine that most viewers, even the female ones, who are looking for a raunchy comedy this weekend, don’t care if the movie portrays women in a good light or not, but we live in a “Wonder Woman” world right now, so who knows?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 15, 2017

      Fair point. I don’t think many female directors learned from The Other Women or other similar movies, but I sure know that Patty Jenkins learned from the failures of those movies when making Wonder Women.
      One of the cast members took her time to assure viewers that Rough Night is not a chick flick. Sadly for her, the trailers prove the exact opposite: Rough Night looks like the stereotypical chick flick. It feels like what every male director of raunchy comedies would do with the women in those movies. In fact, how much different is it from last year’s How to be Single anyway?

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    123One June 15, 2017

    Congratulations “The Mummy”! You will join Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows and Fantastic Four (2015) as another film released in over 4,000 theaters to fail to cross $100 million! I hope the director is proud of himself for creating a failure film and relying on overseas to break even.

    Reply

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