Weekend Forecast: ‘The Fate of the Furious’ Looks to Lap ‘The Circle,’ ‘How to Be a Latin Lover,’ & ‘Sleight’

Correction: A previous version of this story reported most recent prior forecast How to Be a Latin Lover‘s weekend forecast as $2.25 million. This was in error, having been meant to reflect Friday’s opening day prediction, and has been corrected below to our of $6.5 million. We apologize for the confusion.

Original Story: We’ve arrived at the second of two expected soft box office weekends before summer officially begins next week. What was once a slate of three wide releases on April 28 is now just one wide release, one moderate-wide opener, and one limited opener to wrap up the month. Our analysis and forecast:

PROS:

  • The Circle is based on Dave Eggers’ bestselling novel of the same name, giving it some credentials heading into the weekend. Emma Watson is fresh off the massively successful Beauty and the Beast remake, and combining adult appeal through co-star Tom Hanks makes this (potentially) one of STX Entertainment’s more broadly appealing releases to date.
  • How to Be a Latin Lover will aim to counter-program among Latino moviegoers as fans of Eugenio Derbez may come out. He previously led Instructions Not Included to excellent mid-range box office success in 2013.
  • Sleight is being marketed toward teens and young adults, and mostly healthy reviews are an upside.

CONS:

  • The Circle has the unfortunate distinction of being branded a “YA” (Young Adult) movie, which is a sub-genre that has quickly lost traction at the box office over the past few years.
  • Latin Lover is slated to open in around 1,000 theaters — which would be more than Instructions, but general buzz doesn’t seem to be as encouraging for this release. Latino audiences are also a big driver of Fate of the Furious already.
  • Sleight‘s last minute change to a limited release in 550 theaters will undoubtedly undercut any ability to break out beyond expectations. The studio notes that a debut between $1.5 million and $2 million would be considered successful. Our official forecast falls slightly below that range, though.
  • In general, the last weekend before May is notorious for delivering lukewarm attendance as audiences of varying ages wrap up the school year and await the next big film — in this case, next week’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.

Check out our weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, April 30 % Change
The Fate of the Furious Universal $19,200,000 $192,430,000 -50.00%
The Circle STX Entertainment $10,500,000 $10,500,000 NEW
The Boss Baby Fox $9,530,000 $148,710,000 -25.00%
How to Be a Latin Lover Pantelion $6,500,000 $6,500,000 NEW
Beauty and the Beast (2017) Buena Vista $6,280,000 $479,620,000 -35.00%
Going in Style (2017) Warner Bros. (New Line) $3,680,000 $37,060,000 -25.00%
Born in China Buena Vista $3,590,000 $9,820,000 -25.00%
Smurfs: The Lost Village Sony / Columbia $3,170,000 $37,460,000 -35.00%
Gifted Fox Searchlight $2,960,000 $15,220,000 -35.00%
Unforgettable (2017) Warner Bros. $2,630,000 $8,970,000 -45.00%
The Promise (2017) Open Road Films $2,460,000 $8,350,000 -40.00%
The Lost City of Z Bleecker Street $1,270,000 $4,320,000 -40.00%
Sleight BH Tilt $1,250,000 $1,250,000 NEW

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

11 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Brendan April 26, 2017

    No projection for Baahubali 2? Will easily beat out most films this weekend.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Don't Mind Me Now April 26, 2017

      Hard to say how far it will go since it doesn’t have a theater count listed anywhere I can find. If it matches the first film’s opening, it will open in 7th place, and 2nd place among new releases (easily defeating HOW TO BE A LATIN LOVER and SLEIGHT).

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Brendan April 27, 2017

        Only reason I bring it up is that it already has sold 2 mil in pre-sales, and 1 mil of that are for thursday previews. I’m not saying it will get there but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it end up in 2nd or 3rd place. On MovieTickets.com It is the number one ticket seller, as well as the number 4 because there are 2 different languages. It is also selling at a premium price of 20-30 dollars a ticket. People are assuming this is more of an event and rushing out to see it. Who knows how long it will be in theaters and then it could be a very long time before it comes to the home market.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Ed April 27, 2017

          No fool

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Jake Jones April 28, 2017

          Baahubali KILLED The Circle and Latin Lover in the Thursday previews (making FIVE times more than either!!). Yet this site STILL refuses to even mention it exists. Very strange

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Ed April 29, 2017

            No fool again

  2. Avatar
    Hal April 27, 2017

    What are your thoughts on Get Out’s possible performance for this weekend?

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Skywalker April 27, 2017

    I think Baahubali 2 bests Beauty and the Beast. Box Office Mojo predicted around 9.5 mil for this movie. Maybe not that much, but above 7 mil for sure.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ed April 29, 2017

      No

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    clint April 28, 2017

    bahubali 2 will open north of 6 million this weekend. Last movie opened at 3 with half the theater count

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    ADFan April 28, 2017

    “Latino audiences are also a big driver of Fate of the Furious already.”

    I see what you did there. 😉

    Reply

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