Weekend Forecast: Will Pixar’s ‘Coco’ Reign for Thanksgiving Over ‘Justice League’ & Breakout ‘Wonder’?

With the latest Disney/Pixar release hitting theaters tomorrow (technically, tonight), we’re releasing our weekend forecast earlier than usual this week. (Note: several key theater counts were not yet confirmed at the time of this report’s writing.)

PROS:

  • Coco will aim to become the next original Pixar hit as fans of the brand name turn out for their latest holiday release, which has become a tradition for many families. The film has earned a strong 94 percent “Certified Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing, and is expected to appeal strongly among Latino audiences — particularly after its record-setting box office numbers in Mexico. The film’s Facebook activity has closely mirrored that of films like Moana and Zootopia, while all trends are well ahead of 2015’s The Good Dinosaur — indicating fans and families alike are hungry for the first well-reviewed, major studio animated release to hit the market in many months. The well-publicized Frozen short film starring Olaf could also be a significant factor in boosting interest.

CONS:

  • The breakout status of Wonder could potentially hinder some of Coco‘s target family audience this weekend, although co-existence is surely possible as well. Twitter activity hasn’t been as strong as that of recent Disney or Pixar animated titles such as Moana, which could partly be attributed to the common name title making for difficult search strings. In general, the expectation is that the film should have excellent staying power with only December 15’s Ferdinand set to compete directly for the same target audience before January.

The 3-Day Thanksgiving Weekend Top 10 Forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, November 26 % Change
Coco Disney / Pixar $51,000,000 $74,000,000 NEW
Justice League Warner Bros. $47,000,000 $180,000,000 -47%
Wonder Lionsgate $29,000,000 $78,200,000 +5%
Thor: Ragnarok Disney / Marvel Studios $17,400,000 $277,800,000 -20%
Daddy’s Home 2 Paramount $12,300,000 $69,800,000 -15%
Murder on the Orient Express Fox $11,800,000 $71,700,000 -15%
The Star Sony / Columbia $8,000,000 $22,200,000 -18%
A Bad Moms Christmas STXfilms $6,000,000 $60,400,000 -14%
Lady Bird A24 $5,900,000 $12,900,000 +135%
Roman J. Israel, Esq. Sony / Columbia $4,000,000 $5,100,000 +635%
Shawn Robbins

15 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Matt D. November 21, 2017

    1. Coco – $60 M
    2. Justice League- $55 M
    3. Wonder- $20 M
    4. Thor: Ragnarok- $17 M
    5. Daddy’s Home 2- $13 M

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Delfra November 21, 2017

      Most of your predictions look pretty good except Justice League, I just don’t see that doing 55 million over the 3-day weekend. It would have a better hold than Wonder Woman did and it’s second week and that’s just not going to happen. I can see 40-45 million this weekend for it.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Ben November 22, 2017

        Actually, Wonder will do more like $30M than $20M. Both of you will be wrong. Please look at the A+ CinemaScore it got.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Ben November 22, 2017

      Wonder is not going to drop harsher than Daddy’s Home 2.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Robson S. November 21, 2017

    Let’s see how John Lasseter’s indictment will influence Coco’s box office

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Rocky November 21, 2017

    Is there somewhere I can access these numbers via a data connection? Whether via API or SQL query, or whatever, it would be a big help!

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Reece November 21, 2017

    Three billboards is making the top ten

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    navtej singh November 21, 2017

    i think JL will take bigger hit, momentum is against it

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    DangerS November 21, 2017

    I think Coco will go higher… $55M over three days and $80M over five.
    I could see Justice League drop 50-55%.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    erahurka November 22, 2017

    JL earned around 7,5 millions on monday, I think it’ll drop more than 50% this weekend.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Dave November 22, 2017

    I juat watched BvS again. Its like pulling teeth. Snyder has really hurt the DC crown jewels. Justice league will do less than man of steel domestic.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen November 22, 2017

      I was considering watching Yawn of Justice again, but in the extended version to see if it’s somehow less annoying/tedious/incoherent. Perhaps not? The latest Entertainment Weekly noted that the Flash movie, if it ever gets done, is supposed to deal with Flashpoint, which would effectively retcon the DCEU–perhaps keeping the good and ditching the dreck. Time will tell. Until then, here’s hoping that next year’s Aquaman is as fun as the Just-a-League movie suggests he could be.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        TK November 22, 2017

        Except Ezra Miller’s Flash is part of the bad…

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jacen November 24, 2017

          Yeah, I’m ambivalent on his take with the Flash. I prefer the current TV version, but I see some likable elements to Miller’s interpretation (the costume needs to go, though; what were they thinking?).

          Reply
  9. Avatar
    chris November 23, 2017

    What a sad group of people you all are.

    Reply

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