Weekend Forecast (Updated): Will ‘The Dark Tower’ Dethrone ‘Dunkirk’? ‘Detroit’ & ‘Kidnap’ Hope to Counter-Program

Thursday, August 3 Update: The review embargo for The Dark Tower was lifted late on Wednesday night after this story was originally published, and unfortunately, critical reception for the film appears to be significant enough to warrant another decline in our forecast. While an opening close to $20 million remains possible, we’re now forecasting a closer race for first place between the new release and current holdover champion Dunkirk — slightly favoring the latter to repeat at the top for a third straight weekend.

The Dark Tower currently stands at 21 percent from 51 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes while Twitter and Facebook activity have continued to struggle in the wake of reviews hitting the web. Our updated forecast is in the table below.

Original Report: The first weekend of August is set to deliver three new wide releases. Unfortunately, with schools returning to session in some parts of the country and no major tentpole on the slate in the foreseeable future, this is likely to be one of the lowest grossing first weekends of August in years — a fate that may repeat itself quite a few times in the coming weeks before the much stronger September slate arrives.

Our final analysis for the weekend of August 4-6:

PROS:

  • The Dark Tower (Sony / Columbia) has some clout in that it’s based on one of Stephen King’s most popular novels. The respectable star power of Matthew McConaughey and Idris Elba could give it a boost as well. Flixster audience anticipation levels have been very similar to The Mummy reboot.
  • Detroit (Annapurna Pictures) has the advantage of positive reviews (95 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), timely subject matter, and Kathryn Bigelow’s strong resume (Zero Dark ThirtyThe Hurt Locker) backing it up.
  • Kidnap (Aviron) is hoping to bring out Halle Berry fans in her first leading role since 2013’s The Call. Marketing has been solid from the newcomer distributor.

CONS:

  • Dark Tower‘s remaining social media prowess has been sorely lacking in the days leading up to release with relevant Twitter activity registering at just 25 percent of the level June’s The Mummy was generating, not to mention a discouraging sentiment ratio of positive to negative comments. With a review embargo in place this late in the game, we’re concerned this isn’t going to appeal far beyond King’s fans given the existing market competition.
  • Detroit is tracking behind the likes of All Eyez on MeSelma, and Get On Up across both Twitter and Facebook metrics. The late summer release away from an awards season boost could limit its commercial potential without a major studio marketing powerhouse behind it (ala Straight Outta Compton).
  • Likewise, Kidnap is pacing behind the trends of Berry’s The Call. The film’s late standing review embargo is also a concern in this case.

The Forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, August 6 % Change
Dunkirk Warner Bros. $17,300,000 $131,230,000 -35%
The Dark Tower Sony / Columbia $17,200,000 $17,200,000 NEW
Girls Trip Universal $13,750,000 $86,880,000 -30%
The Emoji Movie Sony / Columbia $10,770,000 $46,060,000 -56%
Kidnap Aviron $8,500,000 $8,500,000 NEW
Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony / Columbia $8,490,000 $293,580,000 -36%
Detroit Annapurna Pictures $8,300,000 $8,810,000 2270%
Atomic Blonde Focus Features $8,050,000 $33,200,000 -56%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

27 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS August 02, 2017

    Go Spidey & Dunkirk!

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Reece August 02, 2017

    I really don’t expect Detroit to open THAT low…

    Reply
    • Avatar
      simon August 02, 2017

      It’s in limited release…

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Reece August 02, 2017

        No, this weekend it will be nationwide release, it was limited LAST week

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin August 02, 2017

        Though this weekend is where Detroit expands into wide release, I think $10 million is a sure bet for a movie with a better RT score than Dunkirk. Both may compete with each other, and I’m not very confident about Dunkirk having a 35% drop this weekend for that particular reason. I’m thinking that Dunkirk is in for a 38% drop.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Chris Nolan August 03, 2017

          Dunkirk will drop 37%

          Reply
  3. Avatar
    Shellyman August 02, 2017

    Wow, Dunkirk numbers for this weekend is looking impressive once again. This movie will finish its domestic run around $230-$240m or maybe more! I’m glad Spider-Man: Homecoming is stabilizing for the past 2 weekends. People doubting me this movie won’t reach $300m. Boom! There you go.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Reece August 02, 2017

      No way does Dunkirk make it that high. 200 million+ is what I’m calling, around The Martian numbers but a tad lower

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Shellyman August 02, 2017

        I’m thinking this will make more the Martian, which that movie made $228.4 million domestically. So my $230m seems like more reasonable. It can go either way though.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          bmg August 04, 2017

          I don’t see $200 million at all. I think it tops out at around $180 million.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Rnelson August 03, 2017

        I don’t think it will reach above $200 million but that’s ok. For a film like this it has to be considered a hit. It may be possible for it to have a theatrical re-release if it gets big awards buzz later… boosting the final B.O.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 02, 2017

      Yeah, either Dunkirk falls just short of $200 million (i.e. $195 million), or it inches past $200 million. Dunkirk needs a 3.97x multiplier (better than Wonder Woman) to get to $200 million, but with higher weekend drops than Wonder Woman at this point, it has to compensate with better weekday totals (easy to do when targeting an adult or older adult audience like Dunkirk is doing). We’ll see in about three weeks what will happen.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Ted August 02, 2017

        Why do you always use rotten tomatoes for your analysis? Rotten tomatoes doesn’t have significant influence as some people claim.
        Detroit’s limited box office wasn’t impressive at all. And coupled with difficult subject matter, I think boxoffice.com forecast is spot on.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Taylor August 03, 2017

        Yeah, that’s about right, Dunkirk seems to finish from $180 million to $200 million. It is currently pacing $6-7 million behind MI:5, a movie that had strong legs and ended its run with $195 million, so a similar performance is in play.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Paul August 02, 2017

      Boxoffice.com knew it would do it. Original long range forcast for SMH: $325,000,000

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Shellyman August 02, 2017

        I can see Spider-Man: Homecoming ending near $310m

        Reply
  4. Avatar
    Austin August 02, 2017

    Aside from a minor gripe about Dunkirk’s hold and Detroit’s expanded release gross this weekend, I have a significant problem with Kidnap. It won’t earn good reviews. It came from a studio that lost it in the wake of Chapter 11 bankruptcy similar to The Disappointments Room last year. It got delayed multiple times. Its main star is waiting for Kinsman 2 to be her confirmed redemption. With everything said, there is no way Kidnap opens to $8.5 million…NO way. At most, I’m expecting $5 million, but even that’s a stretch.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice August 02, 2017

    Kidnap has been online for at least a month now. That will definitely affect its viewership.

    I also suspect a huge drop for Atomic Blonde. Other than a few good action scenes which were all in the trailer there is not much else to like about the movie. Characters and a story you just don’t care about.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon August 02, 2017

      People swore up and down that 47 METERS DOWN would bomb because it was released on VOD months before it went into theaters, and it still made a small fortune at the box office, and debuted in the top 5. KIDNAP has the potential to overachieve as well: killer trailer, Hottie, Halle B., once again playing the role of badass woman in distress(her signature role), and black female actresses have been on a role in strong films with phenomenal stories. If the GIRL’S TRIP and/or HIDDEN FIGURES audiences show up, this could overperform.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    navtej singh August 02, 2017

    bad moms dropped 20% in 3rd weekend so don’t be surprised if it beat dunkirk this weekend

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 03, 2017

      Are you talking about Girls Trip, a movie tapping into very similar successes of Bad Moms? If so, then I think you’re overestimating Girls Trip…for now. It won’t beat Dunkirk this weekend and it’s obvious that Girls Trip was more front-loaded than Bad Moms, but being the only good (or at least middling) comedy of this entire year so far, its weekend drops should be decreasing until a certain point in time (of which, I’m unable to pinpoint). The same applies to Dunkirk. If the trend continues where Girls Trip has lower drops than Dunkirk, then it will certainly start overtaking Dunkirk. I think this will happen about two to three weeks later though.
      In other news though, I’m not sure about Dunkirk taking top spot over The Dark Tower. Sure, the latter has bad reviews, but it also is supported by a fan base. In comparison, Batman v. Superman had bad reviews but it opened to $166 million. With that said, The Dark Tower probably could still open between $18-20 million, but it’ll drop hard and have less of a release life like Batman v. Superman before it.

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    J August 03, 2017

    I don’t think Kidnap will make 8 million-maybe 5 million but the first advertising I saw was yesterday for it. If Dunkirk does hold that strong, that’s great. With negative reviews, The Dark Tower could play closer to 20 million.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 03, 2017

      I’ve seen advertising for Kidnap for the past week, but I don’t think that any amount of advertising will save a repeatedly delayed $20 million movie that won’t reach $20 million.

      Reply
  8. Avatar
    DangerS August 03, 2017

    Ouch. Dark Tower won’t hit $20M now and with negative response I can’t see it getting more than a 2-2.25× multiplier, meaning that it could end its run with only $35-40M. That’s really bad. With a $60M budget and with franchise plans this one should have made $100-150M.
    Meanwhile it looks like War for the Planet of the Apes will end with only $140M. While that’s only slightly under the $150M budget, it’s the lowest of the trilogy and I was expecting it to make well above $200M.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Juan Manuel August 03, 2017

    The emoji movie probably won’t make that much money, causing a big drop. There’s tons of reviews hating this movie not recommending it even for kids.
    And also, with The dark tower and Detroit releasing in theatres, The emoji movie probably will end the weekend with 4 – 6 million dollars

    Reply
  10. Avatar
    Bruno Vargas August 03, 2017

    My predictions:
    1- The Dark Tower $25.6 M (New)
    2- Dunkirk 14.5 M (-41%)
    3- The Emoji Movie $13.0 M (-49%)
    4- Girls Trip $12.5 M (-36%)
    5- Detroit $11 M (+2,990%)
    6- Atomic Blonde $8.3 M (-54%)
    7- Spider-Man: Homecoming $7.2 M (-45%)
    8- War for the Planet of the Apes $6.9 M (-43%)
    9- Kidnap $6.0 M (New)
    10- Despicable Me 3 $5.0 M (-34%)

    Reply
  11. Avatar
    Kenneth August 03, 2017

    The Dark Tower will flop hard. A disappointing opening will likely be followed by a drop over 60% second weekend. And after that it will disappear quickly.

    Reply

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