Weekend Forecast: ‘The Hitman’s Bodyguard’ & ‘Logan Lucky’

August’s midpoint weekend is set for two new wide releases with The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Logan Lucky. How will the weekend shake out?

PROS:

  • The Hitman’s Bodyguard (Lionsgate/Summit) boasts two popular leading men in Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson with a potentially crowd-pleasing, chemistry-driven, action/comedy tone that could appeal equally to men and women. The shortage of breakout films in recent weeks could also be an advantage for audiences looking to check out something new.
  • Logan Lucky (Bleecker Street) similarly is hoping to leverage a strong cast led by Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, and Daniel Craig into low-key success this weekend.  The film’s strong reviews (92 percent from 76 critics) may help in the long run, while appealing largely to men, southern audiences, and possibly NASCAR fans may help it carve out an audience despite direct competition from the weekend’s other new release. In fact, new fan anticipation on Flixster has outpaced that of Hitman’s Bodyguard over the past week.

CONS:

  • Hitman’s Bodyguard is currently the recipient of a disappointing 39 percent Rotten Tomatoes score from 54 critics. If that doesn’t budge upward before the weekend, the film could become the latest victim of the so-called “RT effect” in a summer where audiences have often steered clear of poorly reviewed films. By the same token, social media buzz is lacking at this point as it trails the likes of War Dogs and 2 Guns on Twitter, Facebook, and Flixster by significant margins.
  • Coming from Bleecker Street and, somewhat famously, representing a new distribution strategy under the guidance of director Steven Soderbergh, awareness and marketing reach are questionable in the pre-release window despite the film’s prolific cast and strong reviews. In addition to underwhelming tracking from traditional sources (which could be overlooking key southern demographics), Twitter trends have reflected this challenge as the film lags behind the paces of Baby Driver and The Nice Guys. However, Logan Lucky boasts more Facebook fans than Nice Guys did at the same point before opening day.

The Weekend Forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, August 20 % Change
The Hitman’s Bodyguard Lionsgate / Summit $16,800,000 $16,800,000 NEW
Annabelle: Creation Warner Bros. (New Line) $14,500,000 $63,260,000 -59%
Logan Lucky Bleecker Street $9,500,000 $9,500,000 NEW
Dunkirk Warner Bros. $7,070,000 $165,210,000 -35%
The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature Open Road Films $5,010,000 $16,920,000 -40%
Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony / Columbia $4,220,000 $313,650,000 -30%
Girls Trip Universal $3,820,000 $103,640,000 -41%
The Emoji Movie Sony / Columbia $3,800,000 $70,576,000 -41%
The Dark Tower Sony / Columbia $3,520,000 $41,060,000 -55%
The Glass Castle Lionsgate $3,040,000 $9,830,000 -35%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Shellyman August 17, 2017

    Forecasting a 30% drop Spider-Man: HC? Wow, I can see Spider-Man: Homecoming ending its domestic run around $325-$330m now. Meanwhile, The Dark Tower is falling quickly.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ian August 17, 2017

      Yes. Go Spyder

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Danvo August 18, 2017

      Great job by Spider-Man, even if it drops more than 30% this weekend, contrary to what all the DC drone naysayers would have you believe.

      The 6th film in a franchise–the second REBOOT of that franchise–starring the THIRD actor to play the role, and it’s already made $309M domestic and $706M worldwide with China still to come.

      By the end of its run, it could very well outgross 3 of the 5 previous Spidey films worldwide, while costing $50M-$100M less than 4 of those films.

      This is an unmitigated success for Sony/Marvel in the face of franchise fatigue, over-saturation of superhero films and the law of diminishing returns. Great job.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Shellyman August 18, 2017

        Agreed! This is a huge win for Sony Pictures especially. This movie is proving a lot of haters wrong.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Austin August 17, 2017

    I think Logan Lucky may do better than $10.5 million; I’m looking at $13 million or higher provided the audiences are as happy with it as the critics.
    Meanwhile, with a Cinemascore on par with the first one (which was deemed a bad movie), Annabelle: Creation will drop steeply, but probably still earn around $15 million.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Matt D. August 17, 2017

    1. Hitman’ Bodygurd- $19.5 M
    2. Annabelle 2- $19 M
    3. Logan Lucky- $11 M
    4. Dunkirk- $7 M
    5. Spider- Man- $4.5 M

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Fish August 17, 2017

    Logan lucky will be lucky to do $12 million

    Reply

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