Weekend Forecast: ‘Incarnate’

Before mid-to-late December provides what should be some of the biggest movies of the year, from Rogue One to Passengers, the first weekend of December is providing only one new movie: the horror film Incarnate from High Top Releasing and Blumhouse, which is employing a unique release strategy.

Incarnate (High Top Releasing)

PROS:

  • Aaron Eckhart stars as an exorcist who meets an 11-year-old boy possessed by a demon in this supernatural horror film. The last wide release horror movie was Ouija: Origin of Evil on October 21 in the run-up to Halloween. Fans of the horror genre might be looking for another title between then and the next wide release horror movie which comes in January with Amityville: The Awakening.
  • Incarnate was originally scheduled to open up against the Halle Berry thriller Kidnapbut only a few weeks ago Relativity Media moved the film back to March. So now Incarnate has the weekend entirely to itself, at least in terms of new releases. Then again, the originally-scheduled competition for Inferno in October was all moved to subsequent dates, making Inferno the only new release, yet it still posted one of the most disappointing opening weekends of the year.
  • Although a low opening compared to larger studio films is expected, the studio notes that this title’s conservative budget dictates an opening weekend around $4-5 million would be considered a success.

CONS:

  • Social media buzz has left something to be desired when compared to larger films, but this particular release is employing a unique and limited marketing strategy with targeted theatrical locations that favor typically large audiences for genre films. As such, the studio notes comparisons to most horror titles are few and far between.
  • Eckhart has had a weak year at the box office in 2016. March’s London Has Fallen earned $62.5 million, or 36.7 percent below the $98.9 million total of predecessor Olympus Has Fallen. And November’s Bleed For This has currently earned $4.3 million and appears unlikely to crack $8 million, despite being a wide release. September’s Sully did well with $124.4 million and counting, but Eckhart was a very secondary role to Tom Hanks.

Check out the official Boxoffice Pro weekend forecast in the table below.

Rank Title Distributor Weekend % decline Domestic Total through Sunday, December 4
1 Moana Disney $25,000,000 -55.9% $117,250,000
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them Warner Bros. $18,500,000 -59.0% $183,020,000
3 Allied Paramount $7,620,000 -40.0% $29,240,000
4 Arrival Paramount $7,450,000 -35.0% $73,050,000
5 Doctor Strange Disney $6,180,000 -55.0% $214,910,000
6 Trolls Fox $5,320,000 -50.0% $142,320,000
7 Hacksaw Ridge Lionsgate $3,590,000 -35.0% $57,380,000
8 Almost Christmas Universal $2,850,000 -50.0% $38,560,000
9 Bad Santa 2 Broad Green Pictures $2,780,000 -55.0% $13,780,000
10 Incarnate High Top Releasing $2,500,000 N/A $2,500,000

Shawn Robbins, Jesse Rifkin, and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

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