The Jungle Book is set to easily lead the weekend box office for a third consecutive frame. The latest Disney blockbuster was down just 40 percent in its second weekend and is likely to experience an even stronger percentage hold this weekend. In addition to continuing to be aided by strong word of mouth, The Jungle Book should also get an additional bump this weekend from moviegoers wanting to catch the film before fellow Disney release Captain America: Civil War enters the marketplace on May 6.
With the continued runaway success of The Jungle Book and anticipation for Captain America: Civil War continuing to build; expectations are being held in check for all three of this weekend’s wide releases. BoxOffice Pro feels most confident about Warner’s Keanu, but is less confident in this weekend’s prospects for Open Road’s Mother’s Day and especially Focus’ Ratchet & Clank.
Keanu
PROS:
– The comedy duo of Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele have a built-in following thanks in part to their Key & Peele comedy series. Having much of the film’s marketing material focus on Keanu the cat could further the film’s potential as well.
– Early reviews for Keanu are trending positive, as the film currently has a 76 percent Tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes.
– Keanu could receive an added boost from serving as the primary alternative this weekend for moviegoers not looking to catch The Jungle Book again.
CONS:
– Keanu has performed modestly on Twitter, though the film’s title has likely limited the film’s activity levels on Twitter.
– The solid ongoing box office performance of fellow Warner Bros. release Barbershop: The Next Cut could limit potential demand for Keanu.
– Whether or not the film is ultimately able to expand beyond the built-in fanbase of Key & Peele remains to be seen.
Mother’s Day
PROS:
– Mother’s Day has a strong ensemble cast that includes Jennifer Aniston, Julia Roberts, Kate Hudson, Jason Sudeikis and Britt Robertson.
– The film will likely get a boost from opening the weekend before the Mother’s Day holiday, though much of that boost could occur during the film’s second weekend of release.
CONS:
– Mother’s Day has experienced significant slowing on Twitter this week and has been running behind Keanu on Twitter this week as well.
– Roberts isn’t anywhere near the box office draw she once was and Aniston is often either hit or miss at the box office.
– Open Road has struggled with their wide releases recently. The distributor hasn’t had a film open with at least $10 million since Nightcrawler did so with $10.4 million back in October of 2014.
Top 10 Forecast
BoxOffice Pro projects this weekend’s top ten films will total $99.8 million. That would represent an understandably sharp 55.4 percent decline from the $224.0 million top ten total of the same weekend last year, which was driven largely by the $191.3 million debut of Disney’s Avengers: Age of Ultron.
Check out our complete forecast in the table below.
| Title | Distributor | Weekend | Domestic Total Through Sunday, May 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Jungle Book (2016) | Disney | $42,000,000 | $252,000,000 |
| Keanu | Warner Bros. / New Line | $15,000,000 | $15,000,000 |
| Mother’s Day (2016) | Open Road | $9,500,000 | $9,500,000 |
| The Huntsman: Winter’s War | Universal | $8,200,000 | $32,900,000 |
| Barbershop: The Next Cut | Warner Bros. / New Line | $5,700,000 | $44,300,000 |
| Zootopia | Disney | $5,500,000 | $324,000,000 |
| Ratchet & Clank | Focus / Gramercy | $4,700,000 | $4,700,000 |
| The Boss | Universal | $3,800,000 | $55,700,000 |
| Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | Warner Bros. | $3,700,000 | $325,000,000 |
| Criminal (2016) | Lionsgate / Summit | $1,700,000 | $13,800,000 |
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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