Weekend Forecast: ‘Kong: Skull Island’ & ‘Logan’ Poised for Box Office Showdown

The stage is set for a battle royale at the box office this weekend with heavyweight opener Kong: Skull Island hoping to dethrone reigning champ Logan from the top spot. Who will be victorious?

Kong comes into play with a proverbial monkey on its back: the simple fact that audiences have seen numerous King Kong movies over the decades, with the most recent being Peter Jackson’s divisive (but critically well-received), Oscar-winning 2005 edition. Director Jordan Vogt-Roberts, coming off his successful indie turn with 2013’s The Kings of Summer, takes the reigns of Skull Island in hopes of helping Warner Bros. set up their planned Kong/Godzilla cinematic showdown in a few years. Based on this film’s encouraging 80 percent Rotten Tomatoes score (from 81 reviews as of this publishing), he certainly looks to have held up his end of the bargain.

Genre fans are clearly excited about this fresh iteration of the iconic character. The complete absence of both the Empire State Building set piece and the “damsel in distress” Ann Darrow character aids the film’s attempts to give audiences something they haven’t seen in a Kong film before. In terms of what it does offer, the action-driven, light-hearted spectacle has been hailed as a major driver for audience interest. A strong ensemble cast and high-octane ad campaign that’s mimicked a hybrid tone of Mad Max: Fury Road and Apocalypse Now certainly haven’t hurt, either.

Traditional tracking and social media indicators currently suggest Kong: Skull Island should debut north of $40 million this weekend, with potential to approach $50 million or more.

The main hitch in its plan: Logan. Hugh Jackman’s final Wolverine film continues to ride a wave of excellent word of mouth following its $88.4 million debut last weekend. Still, despite that film’s universal praise, its native franchise is notorious for front-loading even when the movie in question is lauded by audiences and fans. It wouldn’t be surprising for Logan to mute some of the upfront buzz for Kong this weekend, but odds slightly favor the chance we’ll be crowning a new weekend champion by the end of Sunday.

Check out our weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, March 12 % Change
Kong: Skull Island Warner Bros. $43,500,000 $43,500,000 NEW
Logan Fox $40,000,000 $156,000,000 -54.76%
Get Out Universal $21,500,000 $111,570,000 -23.86%
The Shack Lionsgate/Summit $11,000,000 $33,250,000 -31.98%
The LEGO Batman Movie Warner Bros. $8,000,000 $159,160,000 -31.64%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Shawn Robbins

6 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Ikaika Tilton March 08, 2017

    Only five movies?

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Luciano March 08, 2017

    O ano ta bom pra Lionsgate. Só filmes bem avaliados e com bilheteria otima

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Matt March 08, 2017

    Yep, surprised they only provided forecasts for the predicted top five but I guess since there is such an expected drop-off after the top five , no one cared to bother with predictions.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Brian de Castro March 08, 2017

    I’ll go out on a limb and say Kong will go past $60M opening weekend. The TV ads have been everywhere. This smacks of a big tentpole summer movie If Logan can do almost $90M as an R-rated movie, surely Kong can do $60M as a giant PG-13. Positive reviews are a great sign. We surely don’t want any hiccups towards getting to that ultimate Kong vs Godzilla match-up that’s in the works. We’ll find out soon enough but I’m betting Kong reigns supreme this weekend.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Someone March 12, 2017

      Well look at that, you were right.

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Octopus March 09, 2017

    Poor Kong. Back in 2005 he had to share his audience with a massive Narnia holdover audience. (Kong opened with $50M while Narnia banked $30M that weekend).
    Now he has to share his audience with a massive Logan holdover audience ($43 M vs $40M). Why can’t Kong get a weekend all to him self. Its not fair I tells you.

    Reply

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