Weekend Forecast: ‘Logan’ Sharpening Claws for $80M+ Launch; ‘Get Out’ Set to Hold Strong; ‘The Shack’ Eyes Faith-Based Success

March is poised to kick off in a big way this weekend as Fox’s highly anticipated Logan unleashes in 4,071 theaters across the country, the most ever for an R-rated title. The tenth film in the overall X-Men franchise will mark both the final appearance of both Hugh Jackman as Wolverine and Patrick Stewart as Professor Charles Xavier — roles they each began 17 years ago.

Adding to that boost of nostalgia-driven interest from audiences, the film is loosely adapting a fan favorite comic book storyline (“Old Man Logan”). Just as importantly, this marks the first R-rated entry in the franchise after years of demand for a true-to-character vision on film of Wolverine. Jackman’s push for this approach was key to his decision in reprising the role one last time, not unlike the well-publicized efforts of Ryan Reynolds get last year’s Deadpool to the screen.

Furthermore, Logan has been “Certified Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes with an excellent score of 93 percent among 107 critics’ reviews counted as of this article’s publishing. If it can stay above X-Men: Days of Future Past‘s 91 percent, Logan will stand as the best reviewed entry in the entire X filmography.

Social media buzz has naturally been a big driver in our expectations for the film, which we’ve had pegged at around an $80 million domestic opening for over two months in our Long Range Forecast. With Twitter activity comparable to that of Days of Future Past so far this week — as well as very encouraging Facebook growth for what is essentially a standalone character film — we remain optimistic in Logan‘s potential to best the $65.8 million opening weekend of last year’s X-Men: Apocalypse (in large part due to the star power and stronger marketing on display in this case). Its range is fairly wide at this point, with some outside potential to near the $98 million inflation-adjusted of 2009’s first character spin-off, X-Men Origins: Wolverine.

Get Out Aims to Sprout Long Legs

Set to hold very well in its sophomore frame this weekend, Get Out should ride momentum from its $33.4 million debut last weekend as audiences continues to spread the word about Jordan Peele’s strongly reviewed, social commentary thriller. A finish in the runner-up spot should be an easy goal.

The Shack Corners Faith-Based Audiences

This weekend will also see the debut of The Shack, a faith-based adaptation that studio sources have pegged to open close to $10 million or more. Traditional and social tracking metrics that we’ve observed generally back that up, and Octavia Spencer’s growing star power could certainly help. With an audience of book fans included, this could break the recent string of low-earning faith-based films and target a debut closer to releases such as War Room and Miracles from Heaven.

Before I Fall Likely to Underperform

Before I Fall marks the final new release this weekend, although pre-release trends for the film are unfortunately lukewarm at this point. Tracking has been on par with the likes of The Space Between Us and The Edge of Seventeen.

Check out our weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, March 5 % Change
Logan Fox $86,000,000 $86,000,000 NEW
Get Out Universal $22,000,000 $71,000,000 -34.09%
The Shack Lionsgate/Summit $12,500,000 $12,500,000 NEW
The LEGO Batman Movie Warner Bros. $12,200,000 $149,200,000 -36.49%
John Wick: Chapter Two Lionsgate/Summit $5,620,000 $83,780,000 -40.00%
La La Land Lionsgate/Summit $4,690,000 $147,360,000 0.00%
The Great Wall Universal $4,560,000 $42,520,000 -50.00%
Hidden Figures Fox $4,350,000 $159,250,000 -25.00%
Fifty Shades Darker Universal $4,290,000 $110,580,000 -45.00%
Before I Fall Open Road $3,500,000 $3,500,000 NEW

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Shawn Robbins

4 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now March 02, 2017

    THE SHACK looks atrocious. (Who was asking for COLLATERAL BEAUTY with Octavia Spencer-God?) It’s been marketed pervasively enough (I got a trailer for it in front of LEGO BATMAN, of all movies) that it’s basically guaranteed to open well above the norm for faith movies, though, and it will probably benefit from a lack of successful faith-based content since MIRACLES FROM HEAVEN. The vagueness of the title makes me lean toward this doing lesser business than that title, but then again, WAR ROOM didn’t have an explicitly faith-esque title either. $7.5 million or more seems likely, though here’s hoping it can’t crack $5 million.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen March 02, 2017

      Thankfully, I haven’t been tormented by having The Schlock in front of any movie I’ve seen. I checked out the trailer a little while back out of curiosity (mostly to see if if was A. sermon-porn, and B. the usual sermon-porn dreck). It didn’t look anywhere near as pitiful as War Room or, especially, those Ed Wood-level turkeys God’s Not Dead, but it did show an overlit, Hallmark softheadedness that identified it as (comparatively) big budget sermon-porn. I think you might be right regarding its success: I’m thinking no more than ten million, and possibly less than that.

      Here’s hoping sermon-porn finally goes the way of torture-porn and dies. Then maybe the people who make/endure these movies can open their minds to appreciate the Christian text and subtext that already exists in some mainstream movies: Hacksaw Ridge, The Martian, Aliens, even JFK, are some examples I can think of, but one does have to exercise some intellectual rigor to notice the ideas.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Don't Mind Me Now March 03, 2017

        You don’t even have to look for subtext. SILENCE is an explicitly faith-affirming movie that is also a masterpiece of filmmaking. I wasn’t big on HACKSAW RIDGE, but it wears its faith on its sleeve and doesn’t make it into something uncomfortable or problematic. Hell, even on the cheaper side, RISEN is a solid piece of affirmational filmmaking. The problem arises when movies like these start using “hey look, we’re Christian!” as a substitute for quality – essentially commodifying faith (shouldn’t that be a no-no?) and trying to isolate their demographic away from the rest of cinema (by enforcing the “Hollywood vs. Christians” stigma) so they don’t question that these movies couldn’t be better. And when the audience isn’t questioning, it’s easy to feed them anything, from the triteness of HEAVEN IS FOR REAL to the disturbing dogma of films like GOD’S NOT DEAD or WAR ROOM.

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        • Avatar
          Kaustav March 03, 2017

          To be honest the only reason religion has survived this long is by commodification. That and blood shed : a lethal combo.

          Reply

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