Weekend Forecast: Will ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’ Sling a $100 Million+ Debut?

The heart of the summer movie season is in full force this weekend as one of the world’s most beloved superheroes returns to the big screen. Our final analysis and forecast for Marvel’s first official chapter starring everyone’s favorite web slinger:

Spider-Man: Homecoming
Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios

PROS:

  • Spider-Man has long been one of the most popular characters in all of superhero lore, often cited as only being matched by the likes of Batman and the Avengers. His appeal, particularly to young boys, remains incredibly strong while fan anticipation for a Spider-Man story told under the oversight of Marvel’s Cinematic Universe has been eagerly anticipated for the past decade.
  • Tom Holland’s first turn as Peter Parker/Spidey in last year’s Captain America: Civil War was one of the widely praised highlights from that film as it introduced a large audience to a new version of the character.
  • The addition of Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark/Iron Man should bring a boost to box office potential as he’s featured prominently in the marketing campaign. Noteworthy is the fact that no MCU film featuring the actor in a leading or co-starring role has opened below $128 million (2010’s Iron Man 2) since his own origin film debuted to $98.6 million nine years ago.
  • Social media engagement has been consistently strong for the film. Twitter activity has been on par with that of Guardians of the Galaxy 2 both in terms of mentions and positive sentiment, while Flixster audience anticipation is comparable to that film as well. Likewise, Twitter trends have been significantly stronger across the board than they were for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 in 2014. On Facebook, with over 20 million fans, the franchise remains one of the most liked across all film franchises.
  • With 98 reviews counted as of this writing, the film’s excellent 92 percent Rotten Tomatoes score — in addition to other factors — should help convince fans on the fence about another Spidey reboot.
  • Early word is that this entry is very family-friendly, which bodes well for staying power prospects through the end of summer. Appeal to teens is also boosted by the casting of Zendaya. The young multi-hyphenate’s social media following and popular Disney Channel presence aren’t to be underestimated.

CONS:

  • There’s no getting around the fact that some audiences have been — and may still — treat this as “just another reboot” after the lukewarm reception toward both Amazing Spider-Man movies in 2012 and 2014 (not to mention 2007’s Spider-Man 3). The closest comparison for this situation would be 2005’s Batman Begins as it similarly wiped the slate clean and approached the series with a fresh creative approach. However, its box office run was uniquely more back-loaded for the genre, partly thanks to a notoriously misguided and off-tone marketing campaign before release (not to mention lacking the benefit of an Avengers/MCU bump).
  • This summer has delivered its share of franchise fatigue victims in various ways. Creativity and execution are typically the reasons why, so Homecoming may not be as vulnerable given the strong buzz behind it. Still, it’s definitely something worth considering as audience spending habits shift around.
  • No matter how well-liked Holland’s first appearance was last year, the teen-friendly aspects of this film could turn away some adult audiences that grew up with Sam Raimi’s massively successful 2002 and 2004 Spider-Man films.
  • Although not necessarily a “con” if the film were to become leggy, it’s worth noting that Sony is conservatively projecting an $80 million opening weekend. While we believe the film’s buzz is strong enough to propel it higher, a lengthy summer run could still help make such an opening successful given the circumstances.

Check out our weekend forecast for key films below.

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, July 9 % Change
Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony / Columbia $122,000,000 $122,000,000 NEW
Despicable Me 3 Universal $30,000,000 $142,510,000 -59%
Baby Driver Sony / TriStar $15,000,000 $59,350,000 -29%
Wonder Woman Warner Bros. $9,000,000 $367,440,000 -43%
Transformers: The Last Knight Paramount $6,300,000 $118,860,000 -63%
The House Warner Bros. (New Line) $5,000,000 $18,530,000 -43%
Cars 3 Disney $4,840,000 $132,740,000 -50%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Check out our interview with Spider-Man: Homecoming writers Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley.

Shawn Robbins

15 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Devesh Pandey July 05, 2017

    I still bet it will do $130 Mn. The main reason thesee websites and underestimating this movie is because all other movies this summer have underperformed domestically (except Wonder Woman). But I don’t think it will be the case with his film. It’s gonna kill it this weekend !

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    DangerS July 05, 2017

    59% drop for Despicable Me 3? Ouch.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Farzilla July 06, 2017

    I’m going to guess $105 million opening for Spidey. I know a lot of people are predicting higher based on the fact that it’s being marketed as a Marvel movie. I know it’s reviews are good, but a lot of them are saying it’s not as good as the Raimi films, which is a little disappointing considering how long ago those movies were.

    It’s definitely going to make more than the Amazing series, but granted those were weak installments so it’s sort of expected. Now I’m a big Spidey fan and he’s always been my favorite Marvel hero, but even my excitement for this film is a little tempered.

    The marketing hasn’t really sold me on it like I hoped it would and I love Keaton in just about anything. Not a fan of young Peter in school approach yet again. That angle is getting old and tiresome for a lot of people not just me.

    I’ll probably be blasted for this, but I really think Spidey needs a break and I know Sony will never give it to him considering they’d lose the rights completely to Marvel if they did.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Shellyman July 06, 2017

      I don’t agree with you how “lot” of people are tired of seeing Peter Parker in HS. Yeah, some will agree with you but this movie came out in Ireland and UK yesterday and people are telling this is the best Spider-Man movie since 2004. Now, this movie is open everywhere internationally today and WoM is going strong. I’ll say this movie will make around $120-$125 million this weekend. RT plays a big role on movies box office now. Lol

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Austin July 06, 2017

    I’ve said this before, but I will say it again. The reviews for Spider-Man: Homecoming are similar to Doctor Strange last year (90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 73 on Metacritic versus 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic) and reviews like this have been typical expectations for a Marvel movie. Also note that audience fatigue is a possible factor here that would prevent many people from seeing it during its opening (I would like to suggest that it will hold well for much of July) as well as the already mentioned franchise fatigue or even superhero fatigue (one superhero film at the beginning of a month for the third time in a row). Also, audiences, as tired as they with the great power great responsibility message, can be tired of Peter in High School approach especially since it has taken up the majority of these Spider-Man movies. Anticipation is still high though and studio projections have been hit-and-miss, so I’m expecting something around $110 million with a maximum of $115 million. As is the case for studio projections on superhero movies this year, I’d be surprised if the studio was right.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Dr Octopus July 06, 2017

    Not been a well reviewed blockbuster since Wonder Woman. I suspect audiences will lap this up.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Matteo D. July 06, 2017

    1. Spider-Man – $120 M
    2. DM3 – $35 M
    3. Baby Driver- $15 M
    4. Transformers- $9 M
    5. Wonder Woman – $7 M

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Nagara July 07, 2017

      I think people are still underestimating Wonder Woman. It’s not going to drop more than 50% for the first time now. It will probably have it’s steepest yet, but still do well.

      It could very well be the highest grossing movie of the summer domestic.

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    J July 06, 2017

    95-105 million would be a good start for this movie, it won’t do 120-130 million.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS July 06, 2017

      Seems like it is expected to have made Deadpool numbers last night, so $130M+ isn’t out of the question. Anyway it will at least open at $115-125M.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        J July 07, 2017

        As the article you were reading stated, Deadpool was an r-rated anomaly.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          DangerS July 07, 2017

          And it actually made more so $130M may happen. But I still think $120M is more likely.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin July 07, 2017

        Take what you will, but Spider-Man just earned $15.4 million in Thursday night previews. That sounds like a $110-$125 million debut depending on how front-loaded it is and how many families see it. Sure, it most likely will drop more than 50% next week, but it could divert a lot of family audiences for the rest of July.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          J July 07, 2017

          It’s easy to be on the right side when you have the numbers in. I posted before the numbers were at 15 million. Yes, it might do 120-130 million now but Marvel movies are frontloaded

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Ed July 08, 2017

            No

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