Weekend Forecast: Will ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’ Sling a $100 Million+ Debut?
The heart of the summer movie season is in full force this weekend as one of the world’s most beloved superheroes returns to the big screen. Our final analysis and forecast for Marvel’s first official chapter starring everyone’s favorite web slinger:
Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
- Spider-Man has long been one of the most popular characters in all of superhero lore, often cited as only being matched by the likes of Batman and the Avengers. His appeal, particularly to young boys, remains incredibly strong while fan anticipation for a Spider-Man story told under the oversight of Marvel’s Cinematic Universe has been eagerly anticipated for the past decade.
- Tom Holland’s first turn as Peter Parker/Spidey in last year’s Captain America: Civil War was one of the widely praised highlights from that film as it introduced a large audience to a new version of the character.
- The addition of Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark/Iron Man should bring a boost to box office potential as he’s featured prominently in the marketing campaign. Noteworthy is the fact that no MCU film featuring the actor in a leading or co-starring role has opened below $128 million (2010’s Iron Man 2) since his own origin film debuted to $98.6 million nine years ago.
- Social media engagement has been consistently strong for the film. Twitter activity has been on par with that of Guardians of the Galaxy 2 both in terms of mentions and positive sentiment, while Flixster audience anticipation is comparable to that film as well. Likewise, Twitter trends have been significantly stronger across the board than they were for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 in 2014. On Facebook, with over 20 million fans, the franchise remains one of the most liked across all film franchises.
- With 98 reviews counted as of this writing, the film’s excellent 92 percent Rotten Tomatoes score — in addition to other factors — should help convince fans on the fence about another Spidey reboot.
- Early word is that this entry is very family-friendly, which bodes well for staying power prospects through the end of summer. Appeal to teens is also boosted by the casting of Zendaya. The young multi-hyphenate’s social media following and popular Disney Channel presence aren’t to be underestimated.
- There’s no getting around the fact that some audiences have been — and may still — treat this as “just another reboot” after the lukewarm reception toward both Amazing Spider-Man movies in 2012 and 2014 (not to mention 2007’s Spider-Man 3). The closest comparison for this situation would be 2005’s Batman Begins as it similarly wiped the slate clean and approached the series with a fresh creative approach. However, its box office run was uniquely more back-loaded for the genre, partly thanks to a notoriously misguided and off-tone marketing campaign before release (not to mention lacking the benefit of an Avengers/MCU bump).
- This summer has delivered its share of franchise fatigue victims in various ways. Creativity and execution are typically the reasons why, so Homecoming may not be as vulnerable given the strong buzz behind it. Still, it’s definitely something worth considering as audience spending habits shift around.
- No matter how well-liked Holland’s first appearance was last year, the teen-friendly aspects of this film could turn away some adult audiences that grew up with Sam Raimi’s massively successful 2002 and 2004 Spider-Man films.
- Although not necessarily a “con” if the film were to become leggy, it’s worth noting that Sony is conservatively projecting an $80 million opening weekend. While we believe the film’s buzz is strong enough to propel it higher, a lengthy summer run could still help make such an opening successful given the circumstances.
Check out our weekend forecast for key films below.
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, July 9||% Change|
|Spider-Man: Homecoming||Sony / Columbia||$122,000,000||$122,000,000||NEW|
|Despicable Me 3||Universal||$30,000,000||$142,510,000||-59%|
|Baby Driver||Sony / TriStar||$15,000,000||$59,350,000||-29%|
|Wonder Woman||Warner Bros.||$9,000,000||$367,440,000||-43%|
|Transformers: The Last Knight||Paramount||$6,300,000||$118,860,000||-63%|
|The House||Warner Bros. (New Line)||$5,000,000||$18,530,000||-43%|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
Check out our interview with Spider-Man: Homecoming writers Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley.