Weekend Forecast (Updated): Will ‘Atomic Blonde’ Or ‘The Emoji Movie’ Fend Off ‘Dunkirk’ & ‘Girls Trip’?

Thursday Update: While we typically hold to final forecasts published on Wednesday, The Emoji Movie‘s review embargo lifting today has proven to be a significant factor in weekend forecasts. With 22 reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes as of this update, the film unfortunately stands at a 0 percent score. Simultaneously, the Flixster audience score has sunk to 60 percent — down a somewhat alarming 3 percent since Tuesday. While we stand by the reasoning that a fairly dry end of summer slate for animated releases could help the film buck online trends even more than animated films already tend to do, we’re lowering our forecast for Emoji to $26.9 million and are now forecasting that Dunkirk will repeat in first place atop the box office. Updated weekend forecasts are in the chart below.

Wednesday Report: Following strong debuts from Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk and Girls Trip last weekend, the final frame of July promises to add a bit more variety as summer begins to enter its final weeks. Who will come out on top?

The Weekend Forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend % Change
Dunkirk Warner Bros. $28,500,000 -44%
The Emoji Movie Sony / Columbia $26,900,000 NEW
Atomic Blonde Focus Features $21,000,000 NEW
Girls Trip Universal $19,000,000 -39%
Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony / Columbia $12,200,000 -45%
War for the Planet of the Apes Fox $9,600,000 -54%

PROS:

  • Atomic Blonde packs the star power of Charlize Theron, James McAvoy, and John Goodman — the former of the trio having become a strong commodity in the action genre following her turns in Mad Max: Fury Road and The Fate of the Furious. McAvoy’s stock has also risen lately with high profile successes in the Split and the X-Men franchise. Social media metrics position the film in between the trends of both John Wick films. On a $30 million production budget, the film is on good footing financially.
  • The Emoji Movie serves as the last animated release from a major studio before The LEGO Ninjago Movie at the end of September. With Despicable Me 3 performing below the level of its franchise predecessors (but still healthily overall), families with young kids could be attracted to Emoji — especially if reviews turn out positive. The film’s modest $50 million production budget also sets the way for likely success.

CONS:

  • Although female-led films have been the biggest story of 2017 so far at the box office, action heroines (aside from Wonder Woman) still have a tough time breaking out beyond expectations — see Ghost in the Shell as a recent example. If male audiences opt to keep supporting DunkirkApes, or Spider-ManAtomic Blonde could find itself in limbo with female audiences flocking to Girls Trip.
  • Internet buzz for The Emoji Movie has been generally muted, but that’s to be expected given the scoff-like reaction the film’s premise has elicited from adults and bloggers in the film community.

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

25 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice July 26, 2017

    Atomic Blonde could debut anywhere from 14-25 million. Big range I know; I just feel it could go either way. Decent reviews and good trailers make me think it could end up surprising. But I’m going with a healthy $18.5 million debut. Not bad for $30 million budget.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Austin July 26, 2017

    Honestly, don’t expect The Emoji Movie to get positive reviews; why else has the studio held back the ability for reviewers to publish their reviews until right before the movie’s release?
    Otherwise, the only other thing I have to say is that Girls Trip is likely to see a 43% drop rather than a 39% drop.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Spike Lee July 27, 2017

      Girls Trip will drop 41%

      Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS July 27, 2017

      Emoji Movie is lucky that there isn’t any big family movie until Lego Ninjango. But I still think it will do meh (no pun intended) in comparison to Sony Animation’s biggest hits (Hotel Transylvania 1&2). Heck, it might not even make Sausage Party money.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin July 27, 2017

        Sausage Party overperformed drastically off of good reviews and a unique concept. Hotel Transylvania 2 overperformed a bit by timing its release toward October despite mixed reviews.
        On the other hand, The Emoji Movie is entering a fatigued market with barely any reason to see it at all. Outside of a supposedly original concept, it is a poorly packaged mix of practically every kids movie cliché imaginable and its lack of any reviews as of this writing implies that Sony knows that this movie won’t get good reviews and the reviews that would have been published already would have killed this movie’s buzz. The cast is trying to promote The Emoji Movie’s “feminist agenda” without realizing that not only has Sony done this with their most recent animated film (Smurfs: The Lost Village), but that this perhaps the worst and most clichéd female character setup that the 21st century has ever brought us. In fact, the messages that it crams in its trailers are not only clichéd, but also have been used in Smurfs: The Lost Village. I’m also sure that if only 63% of people said they want to see it, then a forecast of less than $30 million is most reasonable.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jacen July 27, 2017

          Yeah, the feeling I get watching the Emoji Movie trailer is one of “oh look, another kids’ animated movie, this time with emoji as the characters. Cue the usual ‘find your true self tropes’ and plastic inspirational music.” At least Sausage Party had a hilarious trailer, and new Smurfs had longtime brand recognition and a more intriguing adventure. Emoji? Eh. I’m thinking an opening closer to 20mil at best, but I could be vastly underestimating the audience’s curiosity here and how well the dull marketing is connecting. Then again, it all could come down to how much people want to see Xavier Picard give voice to feces.

          Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS July 27, 2017

      Lmao Emoji Movie has 0% on Rotten Tomatoes and 8/100 on Metacritic. 😂😂😂

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin July 27, 2017

        That’s worse than I though…and those zeros may just keep rolling in…
        At this point, if you want anything to do with The Emoji Movie, read the deliciously scathing reviews instead and make up your own in the process; that would at least make an entertaining and hilarious hour and a half compared to watching the movie.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Tigger July 27, 2017

          Or at least maybe watching a highly-reviewed one (Such as a Lego Batman, only CF toon at 90% this year).

          Also, No more than $19 million due to the garbage reviews. This is acting similar to Norm of the North from last year. As for the close, we have Nut Job 2, which will likely scare any away from here (even if doesn’t get great reviews, it’s want to see it score is near 70, vs. 60 for Emoji). I think it will be lucky to get to $55 million.

          Bottom Line: I’d just rather wait for Lego Ninjago if I had kids.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Austin July 28, 2017

            Watch The Emoji Movie be so embarrassing that even if it scores a $20-25 million opening (which is still very much a possibility), not only will it drop 50% or more, but Nut Job 2 will actually get better reviews. I totally see that happening.

  3. Avatar
    mjm July 26, 2017

    I think Dunkirk will be number one again. Its getting great word of mouth and its one of those movies you wanna see in a movie theater. Emoji movie, haven’t heard much about it, I don’t think its going to make a huge debut. Atomic Blonde, looks like a kick ass of a movie with Charlize in the lead and a good script it should bring lots of young women into the theater.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    DangerS July 27, 2017

    My guess:
    Dunkirk – $28.5M
    Emoji Movie – $26.5M
    Atomic Blonde – $22M
    Girls Trip – $16.5M
    Spider-Man – $15M

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    navtej singh July 27, 2017

    i did not expect War for the Planet of the Apes to fall this harder, surely disappointing considering it’s a very good last movie of a brilliant trilogy

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS July 27, 2017

      Agreed. At this point I can see it finishing with $140-145M, which is okay for a $150M budget. I hope it does better overseas.
      Now I’m glad to see Spidey doing better in weekdays and possibly 3rd weekend. It might put it back on track for $300M total.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    Moe July 27, 2017

    I feel that Atomic Blonde may lose female audience interest because the marketing has been a bit too skewed towards male audiences especially with the whole girl-on-girl “action” in the trailers.

    A real pity… John Wick is great because it is a no nonsense actiin flick. Atomic Blonde did not not need to use sexuality to sell its premise.

    Theron is gorgeous as it is already so I feel that the people behind this movie are trying too hard to convince me and other men to watch this movie.

    The character Theron plays seems like a bad ass already who should not need to use sexuality to con anyone or get her way…

    For that reason I feel it will push away at least some females.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen July 27, 2017

      I hadn’t thought of that, but you raise an interesting point. The teaser trailer seemed geared toward a statement of “Furiosa is back yet again to kick backside,” which would gain interest among Fury Road and Fate of the Furious fans, be they male or female. I hadn’t thought much about subsequent marketing and whether it might alienate the women that the initial trailer tried to connect with. I wonder if the male-edged marketing might be an attempt at currying favor with guys who might currently be objecting to the presence of strong women in mostly male-dominated franchises. If so, that’s a mistake, because those guys will never be convinced.

      That being said, my initial thoughts on the film’s potential box office was that it would do like John Wick: a little over 40mil. The hype over the subsequent weeks made me think that mybe it could get up to 80 to 100mil, but that hype seems to have abated.

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    Matt D. July 27, 2017

    1. Dunkirk – $31 M
    2. Atomic Blonde – $23 M
    3. Emoji Movie – $21 M
    4. Girls Trip – $18 M
    5. Spider-Man – $12.5 M
    6. Apes – $10.5 M

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Hamnadab July 27, 2017

    Emoji Movie prediction is very high. The movie doesn’t have any review yet, indicating that it’s a truly awful disaster. I think it will perform like Smurfs the Lost Village and Dunkirk will remain at #1.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Bruno Vargas July 27, 2017

    My predictions:
    1. Atomic Blonde – $26 M
    2. Dunkirk – $20.3 M
    3. Emoji Movie – $20 M
    4. Girls Trip – $19 M
    5. Spider-Man – $11.5 M
    6. War for the Planet of the Apes – $11 M

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS July 28, 2017

      No way Dunkirk drops that much. Expect a 40-45% drop.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 28, 2017

      Atomic Blonde won’t break out like that because in the eyes of many, it looks more like the most stylish art house film ever invented rather than a mainstream film (even John Wick and Baby Driver knew that breakout success would be from mainstream audiences, so they appealed to mainstream audiences, something Atomic Blonde can’t do well). I also don’t think Dunkirk will drop 60% in light of its great reviews.

      Reply
  10. Avatar
    Red_Kal July 27, 2017

    I really wouldn’t be surprised if Dunkirk and Blonde battle it out for the top spot. I have a feeling that Atomic Blonde is going to come in at $30 million.

    Reply
  11. Avatar
    belle.k July 27, 2017

    My guess:
    1. Atomic Blonde – $26 M
    2. Dunkirk – $25 M
    3. Girls Trip – $20 M
    4. The Emoji Movie – $18 M

    Reply
  12. Avatar
    belle_k July 27, 2017

    1. Dunkirk – $25 M
    2. Atomic Blonde – $21 M
    3. Girls Trip – $20 M
    4. The Emoji Movie – $18 M

    Reply
  13. Avatar
    Juan Manuel July 28, 2017

    My predictions:
    1. Dunkirk – $28.9 M
    2. Atomic Blonde – $21.4 M
    3. Emoji Movie – $18.7 M
    4. Girls Trip – $16.4 M
    5. Spider-Man – $11.5 M

    Reply

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