Weekend Forecast: Will ‘War for the Planet of the Apes’ Unseat ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’?

This weekend will see two new wide releases — in addition to the nationwide expansion of The Big Sick. Our final pre-release analysis and forecast:

PROS:

  • War for the Planet of the Apes should benefit from the strong goodwill earned by its 2011 and 2014 predecessors, which combined to earn $385 million domestically. Social media buzz has been healthy — tracking along the lines of Star Trek Beyond — ahead of release. Furthermore, strong reviews (93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing) and a gritty marketing campaign from Fox have built healthy interest and awareness in the trilogy-capper, while Andy Serkis’ lauded dramatic performance as Caesar arguably remains the hallmark attraction of the rebooted franchise.
  • Wish Upon enters a market that hasn’t seen a breakout horror film in quite some time, and its PG-13 rating could help toward that goal with appeal to teenagers. The film’s Twitter activity has also perked up over the past 48 hours.
  • Following a strong limited run that has yielded $7.6 million over the past three weeks, The Big Sick will expand nationwide into an estimated 2,500 theaters this weekend as fantastic reviews and word of mouth hopefully propel it among date night audiences.

CONS:

  • Apes opens in a summer that has seen its fair share of franchise victims. Strong buzz should help avoid significant fatigue, but it will be a challenge to best Dawn of the Planet of the Apes‘ $72.6 million opening back in July 2014 as the newest entry faces stiffer competition in the likes of Spider-Man: Homecoming and next week’s Dunkirk. Meanwhile, Atom Tickets’ big ticket promotion on Tuesday has significantly skewed pre-sales data, potentially inflating industry expectations.
  • Wish Upon comes from Broad Green Pictures, a young distributor whose marketing reach is still in the nascent stages. The film’s lukewarm Facebook and Flixster footprints don’t support the kind of breakout potential Lights Out enjoyed last year, or even that of 47 Meters Down, but the genre is famous for churning out last-minute surprises. Competition for teen audiences against Spider-Man: Homecoming marks another challenge.

The Forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, July 16 % Change
War for the Planet of the Apes Fox $54,000,000 $54,000,000 NEW
Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony / Columbia $47,000,000 $210,350,000 -60%
Despicable Me 3 Universal $18,470,000 $183,830,000 -45%
The Big Sick Lionsgate $11,000,000 $19,120,000 208%
Baby Driver Sony / TriStar $9,100,000 $72,590,000 -30%
Wish Upon Broad Green Pictures $6,500,000 $6,500,000 NEW
Wonder Woman Warner Bros. $6,380,000 $379,350,000 -35%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Matt D. July 12, 2017

    1. Apes- $60 M ($180 M lifetime total)
    2. Spider-Man- $52 M
    3. Despicable Me 3- $21 M
    4. Big Sick $15 M
    5. Baby Driver- $9 M

    Hope Spider-Man has a good holdover and Apes does well since those (w/ Guardians 2 & Wonder Woman) have been the only blockbuster summer movies to get great reviews.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    J July 12, 2017

    I hope they’re wrong on the Apes box office. But they usually aren’t that off the money. I’m hoping for 70 million plus for Apes, but if it only does 54 million it will still do just fine.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen July 12, 2017

      I echo your sentiments, and it’s possible that Apes could be in a tighter race with Homecoming if Spidey doesn’t drop as much as they expect. I could see both films coming in at 54mil. Still, I’m hoping that this is the franchise’s equivalent to The Bourne Ultimatum: the biggest return of a series that improved financially with each installment.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    navtej singh July 13, 2017

    c’mon people show up for apes

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    DangerS July 13, 2017

    Apes – $70-80M
    Spidey – $50-55M

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Juan July 13, 2017

    I don’t see why that mobile phone promotion would skew things much. Instead I think the triple play over 1000 cinemas are offering this week will pad it’s BO well past $54M. Those tickets are between $40-50 each & count towards Apes 3.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Austin July 13, 2017

    Spider-Man dropping 60%? No way is that happening! I know it is front-loaded, but with support from families for the next two weeks, it should drop between 52 and 57% this week. Apes could earn $60-70 million this week (I’m expecting something closer to $70 million); even if it falls below $60 million, it should earn above $55 million which should be enough to earn #1 at the BO.

    Reply

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