Weekend Forecast: ‘Wonder Woman’ Poised to Upset ‘The Mummy’ Debut; Will ‘It Comes at Night’ Achieve Sleeper Hit Status?

June’s second frame is already upon us, and with it come three new releases. The Mummy stands as the highest profile opener of the weekend, but we’re expecting Wonder Woman to upset Universal’s Dark Universe tentpole following last week’s strong opening weekend and the excellent word of mouth that has followed the DC heroine. Our final analysis and forecast:

The Mummy
Universal

PROS:

  • As an established property, The Mummy may entice fans of Universal’s classic monster movies.
  • Tom Cruise adds an element of star power to help drive interest in this reboot. Under the circumstances, though, that will probably be a stronger asset in overseas markets.
  • Facebook activity has been very respectable, attracting over 4 million total fans for the franchise.
  • Older male audiences haven’t been targeted directly since Alien: Covenant, so this could present an option for them. Younger males will need to turn out in big numbers for this to beat expectations, though.

CONS:

  • Demand for another reboot of the franchise hasn’t exactly been high. The target adult audiences aren’t that far removed in time from 1999’s highly successful Mummy film starring Brendan Fraser, not to mention its 2001 and 2008 sequels.
  • Twitter trends have been improving, but overall activity still lags behind fellow Cruise films Edge of Tomorrow and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation.
  • The strong reception of Wonder Woman will likely undercut this film’s ability to attract Cruise’s female fans.
  • Initial reviews are poor, unfortunately, with a 29 percent Rotten Tomatoes score across 56 reviews as of this article’s publishing.

It Comes at Night
A24

PROS:

  • Joel Edgerton has steadily built a resume of well-received films, including his multiple roles in front and behind the camera on The Gift.
  • Facebook growth has outpaced that of The Gift. The lack of recent breakouts in the horror genre could set this up to surprise during its run.
  • Initial reviews are very encouraging, standing at 86 percent across 37 critics so far.

CONS:

  • A24’s nature as a relatively newcomer distributor also means marketing reach has been more limited than that of similar films from larger studios.
  • Conversely, Facebook growth has tracked behind that of The Witch.
  • As of this publishing, the studio has not returned requests for an estimated theater count. This may or may not suggest they plan on releasing with a semi-wide strategy. If the official count deviates from our expectation, we’ll update our forecast prior to Friday.

Megan Leavey
Bleecker Street

PROS:

  • Based on a true story, this could appeal well to military families and animal lovers in general.
  • Reviews are also encouraging for this film as it claims a 87 percent score among 15 critics thus far.

CONS:

  • Again, Bleecker Street’s distribution history leads us to believe this will not have the kind of audience/marketing reach of similar films.
  • Social media activity has routinely stood well behind the pace of 2015’s Max.
  • As of this publishing, the studio has not returned requests for an estimated theater count. Combined with the fact that the studio has never opened a film in true wide release, this might suggest they plan on releasing in a semi-wide strategy. If the official count deviates from our expectation, we’ll update our forecast prior to Friday.

Check out our weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, June 11 % Change
Wonder Woman Warner Bros. $50,000,000 $200,000,000 -52%
The Mummy (2017) Universal $32,000,000 $32,000,000 NEW
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Fox $13,350,000 $44,800,000 -44%
It Comes at Night A24 $11,000,000 $11,000,000 NEW
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Disney $10,400,000 $135,070,000 -53%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Disney $4,720,000 $364,480,000 -52%
Baywatch Paramount $4,370,000 $50,610,000 -50%
Megan Leavey Bleecker Street $2,400,000 $2,400,000 NEW
Alien: Covenant Fox $1,860,000 $71,270,000 -55%
Everything, Everything Warner Bros. $1,980,000 $32,030,000 -40%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

16 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Matteo D. June 07, 2017

    This will my prediction for the weekend:

    1. Wonder Woman- $52 M
    2. The Mummy- $42 M
    3. Captain Underpants- $13 M
    4. Pirates 5- $12 M
    5. It Comes at Night- $11 M

    I really hope Mummy does well because I want this Dark Universe too succeed and because even though I like Rotten Tomatoes, it has killed almost half the movies this summer.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Dennis June 07, 2017

      “Rotten Tomatoes” doesn’t do anything. All it does is aggregate the reviews from hundreds of individual reviewers around the country/world.

      And frankly, the reviews didn’t KILL the movies – the movies were killed because they were AWFUL.

      You people really need to stop it.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin June 08, 2017

        However, if the movies were proven awful, then, according to you, they had bad reviews and/or bad trailers and promotions. That’s why Rotten Tomatoes along with Facebook and Twitter is an important indicator, and reviews and even social media responses can kill movies (at least domestically).

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Dennis June 09, 2017

          Um…

          First of all, Bad movies don’t have “bad promotions” or “bad trailers.” Some of the worst films of the last 10 years have had amazing trailers and exorbitant P/A costs (EG: “Man of Steel”).

          Back on point: My point was this – the OP was claiming that Rotten Tomatoes “kills” movies – this implies that the films in question are good/great and are being unfairly “undone” or “killed” by rotten tomatoes–as if they’re being sabotaged. Illogical.

          These films are being reviewed poorly because they ARE BAD. They didn’t start “good” and get snuffed out before people had a chance to see how “good” they were: Pirates 5 is awful. XXX2 was awful. Mummy is Awful. They deserve the bad reviews – and they deserve to do poorly at the box office. And frankly, even if Rotten tomatoes didn’t exist, bad WOM would do the job.

          Yes, reviews and social media are important indicators. Of course they are. But the OP’s tone implied these great films were being unfairly snuffed out by RT.

          And let’s be honest – these films will do well overseas because foreign audiences are willing to throw money at junk even WE won’t watch. Die Hard 5, Terminator 4, XXX2… they all did well overseas, despite how awful they are (and how badly they were reviewed by domestic and international critics).

          Reply
  2. Avatar
    J June 07, 2017

    Wonder Woman will upset The Mummy but that’s not really a shocker, the trailers were cringe-worthy and hard to watch. You know what’s not cringe-worthy and hard to watch? I don’t even need to answer.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 07, 2017

      Actually, I knew going in that:
      1. The Mummy was never going to get good reviews and it was destined to bomb domestically; the Dark Universe just appeared to be a rushed idea to build buzz for the movie.
      2. At best, it was going to be a fun movie, but without much story behind it (even Warcraft last year had more potential to have a good story, but Warcraft certainly blew it and got bad reviews that left video game movies’ status still in tatters)
      I think that Megan Leavy projections are too low; it should reach at least $3.5 million this weekend (it may run similarly to The Zookeeper’s Wife).

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Nate June 08, 2017

        Where do you think the Mummy will land at Austin? Do you think 32 mil is too low?

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Austin June 09, 2017

          If I answered you yesterday, I would have said that $32 million sounds a bit too low. But with today’s numbers and information, $32 million sounds a bit too high (Refer to my other comments below).

          Reply
  3. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice June 07, 2017

    I liked The Mummy trailers. Made it seem like it was going to be a fun, fast paced ,action horror adventure. Obviously something went wrong in developing this movie. Tom Cruise usually has good taste. So it’s disappointing to see the reviews but I’ve definitely liked movies that the critics have hated. So i’ll give it a shot, not with my money but I’ll watch it when it’s online.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    DangerS June 07, 2017

    Wonder Woman – $52M
    The Mummy – $34M
    It Comes at Night – $15M
    Captain Underpants – $14M
    Pirates 5 – $11M
    Guardians 2 – $6M

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Farzilla June 08, 2017

    Don’t care what the critics say, I’m still watching The Mummy this weekend with the family. Movie was always advertised as a fun action adventure flick, nothing more. Pretty sure thats the case with this film. I just hope for future Monster installments that they choose a better director than Kurtzman. He was always the red flag on this project in terms of directing

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Austin June 08, 2017

    Wonder Woman-$50 million
    The Mummy – $35 million
    Captain Underpants – $13 million
    It Comes at Night – $12 million
    Pirates 5 – $10 million

    Reply
    • Avatar
      J June 09, 2017

      It comes at night has a terrible audience score of 53% and will make 7-8 million this weekend. It will not make more than Pirates 5.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin June 09, 2017

        You have a fair point, J, as an article just confirmed that It Comes at Night may make no more than $9.1 million, putting it in a much closer race against Pirates 5.
        To beat It Comes at Night, Pirates 5 cannot drop 59.5% or higher this weekend. Otherwise, I am confident that Pirates 5 will drop 56%, finding a fourth-place finish with my initial prediction of nearly $10 million.
        Otherwise, I think that the other movies will stay in the spots I placed them in even if The Mummy only finds $30 million worth of box office treasure this weekend.

        Reply
  7. Avatar
    peter Miranda June 09, 2017

    could be wild but I think mummy could do 60 ,wonder woman could pip it
    rotton tomatoes have terrible reviews for transformer and it will do 100!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen June 09, 2017

      No, no, and no–although 100 mil total domestic for TrashFarmers would not surprise me. (I recently rented TrashFarmers: Bag of Excretion to get a bad-movie fix and was stunned at how awful it was: narratively incompetent and stylistically clueless, it was like an Asylum turkey with a budget, and the new flick looks like more of the same.)

      Reply

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