Weekend Forecast: ‘Split,’ ‘xXx: The Return of Xander Cage,’ ‘The Founder,’ ‘The Resurrection of Gavin Stone’

It’s James McAvoy horror thriller vs. Vin Diesel action for the top spot at the box office, as Universal’s Split takes on Paramount’s xXx: The Return of Xander Cage. Although there’s a miniscule (though still conceivable) chance that Fox’s Hidden Figures could contend for the top spot for a third straight weekend. This is your weekend forecast.

Split (Universal)

PROS:

  • Our long range forecast from eight weeks predicted Split would open in second place at best, with about $16 million. Since that time, Split has only increased in buzz while xXx has stalled or even declined, and we’re now projecting Split to win the weekend with $25.5 million. This horror thriller stars James McAvoy as a sadistic kidnapper with 23 different personalities, and has garnered buzz online and after its first showing at the AFI Fest for what looks to potentially be an memorable acting performance from McAvoy, in the horror genre which is infamous for usually having the worst acting among the major Hollywood genres. Plus its biggest would-be competition in the horror genre is nothing to worry about; Amityville: The Awakening was supposed to open two weeks ago but was delayed, while last weekend’s The Bye Bye Man only opened in fifth place.

CONS:

  • Director M. Night Shyamalan has experienced a big box office downturn since being hailed in an early-2000s Newsweek cover story as “the next Spielberg.” 2013’s After Earth with $60.5 million, which starred Will Smith, one of the most bankable stars in Hollywood history. 2015’s The Visit with $65.2 million would be a better mark for Split to aim for, a fellow horror film whose grosses far exceeded its roughly $5 million budget.

xXx: The Return of Xander Cage (Paramount)

PROS:

  • One of the biggest modern action stars, Vin Diesel, returns in this new xXx installment. The first one in 2002 earned a $44.5 million opening weekend en route to $142.1 million total. Adjusted for inflation, that’s the modern day equivalent of a $65.9 million opening and $210.5 million total.

CONS:

  • We’ve revised our weekend estimate down significantly since our long range forecast eight weeks ago, from $32 million to $18 million, due to lackluster online buzz. Also, how many people really remember the original xXx film from a full 15 years ago? At least people were begging for sequels in the Fast and the Furious franchise which Diesel also starred in, which was proven by the box office for the fifth, sixth, and seventh installments. Diesel’s two main action-adventure non-Furious films this decade were 2013’s Riddick earned $42.0 million and 2015’s The Last Witch Hunter made $27.3 million — can he attract audiences without Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson or Paul Walker by his side?

The Founder (Weinstein Company)

PROS:

  • Michael Keaton stars in the true story of Ray Kroc, the man who purchased the lone McDonald’s restaurant in the 1950s and expanded it into a global corporation. Keaton is in the middle of career renaissance, starring in both of the two most recent Oscar Best Picture winners: 2015’s Spotlight and 2014’s Birdman, for which he was nominated for Best Actor.

CONS:

  • Spotlight made $45.0 million and Birdman earned $42.3 million. Both were decent sums given their low budgets but a bit middling when factoring in their word of mouth and constant Best Picture buzz for two months during awards season. While Founder was originally projected to be an awards contender, it has slipped almost completely from the Oscars conversation, with Best Picture and Actor now highly unlikely bordering on impossible according to most analysts. It would be highly surprising if The Founder comes close to the cumulatives for Keaton’s two previous films. If people want to see a true story that takes place in the ’50s or ’60s this weekend, they’ll likely opt for box office leader Hidden Figures instead.

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone (High Top Releasing)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqfkImWycqQ

PROS:

  • High Top Releasing is embarking on an unusual marketing and distribution strategy similar to their previous release Incarnate in December. They’re releasing Gavin Stone in only about 1,000 theaters targeted by faith-based audiences, while the low budget marketing campaign was primarily digital and involved an outreach campaign to churches and religious groups. The studio says they’ll consider it a success if the film opens to $3 million.

CONS:

  • …although we forecast it will likely fail to reach that $3 million mark. The studio said they would have considered Incarnate a success if it opened to $4 million, but it started with $2.5 million, and the online buzz was notably higher than it’s been for Stone. At Boxoffice Pro we usually try to steer clear of using trailer view counts as a proxy for box office, since there can be titles with tens of millions of views which nonetheless perform poorly at the box office, such as Max Steel a few months ago. But trailer eyeballs might be worth noting this one time: the YouTube trailer for this film has less than 50,000 views. People aren’t going to attend a film that they’re unaware even exists.

Boxoffice Pro projects the top 10 films at this weekend’s box office will earn a cumulative $109.80 million. That’s 7.77 percent below the $119.05 million earned by the top 10 films this past three-day weekend. It’s also 24.53 percent below the $145.50 million earned by the top 10 films on the three-day weekend last year, when Ride Along 2 debuted on top with $35.24 million.

Check out the official Boxoffice Pro weekend forecast for the top 10 films in the table below.

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday 1/22/17 % change from last weekend (3-day)
Split Universal $25,500,000 $25,500,000 New
xXx : The Return of Xander Cage Paramount $18,000,000 $18,000,000 New
Hidden Figures Fox $14,000,000 $82,000,000 -32.87%
La La Land Lionsgate / Summit $11,500,000 $92,880,000 -20.87%
Sing Universal $8,540,000 $249,220,000 -40.03%
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Disney $7,410,000 $512,500,000 -44.98%
Patriots Day Lionsgate $6,300,000 $23,650,000 -45.75%
Monster Trucks Paramount $5,480,000 $21,410,000 -49.96%
The Bye Bye Man STX Entertainment $5,400,000 $22,170,000 -60.00%
Sleepless Open Road Films $4,170,000 $15,810,000 -50.02%
The Founder Weinstein Company $3,500,000 $3,500,000 New

We project that The Resurrection of Gavin Stone will debut with $0.9 million, not enough to qualify for the top 10 films this weekend on the above chart.

Shawn Robbins, Jesse Rifkin, and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.