Early Weekend Estimates: ‘Jumanji’ Eyeing Another $33M+ ‘Insidious: The Last Key’ Overperforming at $25M+; ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ Looking to Add $24M; ‘Molly’s Game’ & ‘Darkest Hour’ Expanding Well

Saturday Update: Universal and Blumhouse’s Insidious: The Last Key is over-performing to start the weekend, earning a strong $12.743 million in first place on opening day Friday (including Thursday night’s $2 million take).  By comparison, that comes in nearly 22 percent ahead of its predecessor’s $10.46 million opening day in June 2015., while coming in even further ahead of fellow January horror releases such as The Woman In Black 2 ($7.75 million) and Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones ($8.7 million). With many schools still out yesterday, it remains to be seen how frontloaded the weekend may have been to Thursday/Friday, but this is another strong result for the Blumhouse franchise nonetheless. A weekend close to $25 million or slightly more is likely at this time, which gives it a shot to open in second place for the frame.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continued to stomp on with $10.8 million yesterday, down just 39 percent from last Friday. The smash holiday blockbuster has tallied $219.2 million through 17 days of release and now stands a whopping 34 percent ahead of Night at the Museum‘s 17-day domestic pace. Sony projects between $33-35 million for the weekend overall.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi took in $6.584 million yesterday, generally lining up with expectations entering the weekend as it was down over 65 percent from last Friday. The well-reviewed blockbuster sequel has shed a noticeable portion of its family audience with Jumanji playing so strongly among that crowd, although as we’ve noted in past analyses, that’s also typical of middle chapters in Star Wars trilogies. Ultimately, Jedi has now registered $555.55 million domestically to date — standing as the sixth highest North American earner of all-time with another holiday weekend ahead. Projections for this current weekend sit north of $23.5 million.

The Greatest Showman posted $4.175 million in fourth place, down just 22 percent from last Friday and bringing its total to $67.3 million. Fox estimates a $14.125 million weekend as the musical continues to enjoy strong word of mouth.

Rounding out the top five, Pitch Perfect 3 added $3.32 million for an updated cume of $79.1 million. Look for a weekend around $10 million or slightly more.

Molly’s Game expanded in to wide release slightly above expectations with $2.28 million on Friday, giving it $9.5 million in all since its limited release in December. STX is projecting a $6.84 million weekend.

Darkest Hour also expanded nationwide in successful fashion with $1.83 million yesterday, giving it $23.9 million in all so far. Look for a weekend around $6 million or more.

Meanwhile, The Post continued to impress as it expanded to 36 locations yesterday and earned $496,000. With $2.65 million earned in platform release thus far, the Spielberg/Streep/Hanks drama is building a case for a strong run when it goes nationwide next weekend. Fox projects a $1.57 million take this weekend.

A mix of early weekend estimates from several studios and our own projections are below. Updated studio estimates will be posted on Sunday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $34,500,000 -31% 3,801 36 $9,077 $242,872,666 3 Sony / Columbia
2 Insidious: The Last Key $25,300,000 3,116 $8,119 $25,300,000 12 Universal
3 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $24,000,000 -54% 4,232 0 $5,671 $572,962,602 4 Disney
4 The Greatest Showman $14,125,000 -9% 3,342 26 $4,227 $77,229,372 3 Fox
5 Pitch Perfect 3 $10,300,000 -39% 3,458 -10 $2,979 $10,300,000 3 Universal
6 Ferdinand $7,950,000 -30% 3,156 -181 $2,519 $70,719,118 4 Fox
7 Molly’s Game $6,800,000 189% 1,608 1337 $4,229 $14,016,560 2 STX Entertainment
8 Darkest Hour $6,000,000 9% 1,733 790 $3,462 $28,036,107 7 Focus Features
9 Coco $6,000,000 -20% 1,894 -210 $3,168 $192,542,961 7 Disney
10 All the Money in the World $3,500,000 -37% 2,123 49 $1,649 $20,081,909 2 Sony / TriStar
11 Wonder (2017) $2,400,000 -26% 1,258 65 $1,908 $126,657,086 8 Lionsgate
12 Downsizing $2,200,000 -53% 2,020 -648 $1,089 $22,930,118 3 Paramount
13 Father Figures $1,200,000 -69% 1,717 -1185 $699 $16,710,460 3 Warner Bros.

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Shape of Water $2,875,000 -19% 804 48 $3,576 $21,428,464 6 Fox Searchlight
2 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $690,000 2% 310 44 $2,226 $25,377,714 13 Fox Searchlight
3 Thor: Ragnarok $550,000 -36% 325 -215 $1,692 $312,494,786 10 Disney
4 Justice League $545,000 -54% 518 -697 $1,052 $227,020,639 8 Warner Bros.
5 Murder on the Orient Express (2017) $470,000 -24% 314 -77 $1,497 $101,575,135 9 Fox
6 Daddy’s Home 2 $450,000 -52% 429 -341 $1,049 $102,911,502 9 Paramount

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Post $1,570,000 180% 36 27 $43,611 $3,719,656 3 20th Century Fox
2 Hostiles $280,000 737% 46 41 $6,087 $414,530 3 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
3 Marshall $5,200 -51% 41 -9 $127 $9,480,472 13 Open Road

===

Friday Update: Sources report that Insidious: The Last Key bowed to an estimated $2 million last night, a healthy start for the latest sequel in the Blumhouse horror franchise. By comparison, that bests its 2015 predecessor (which earned $1.55 million) by 29 percent.

For more calendar-appropriate benchmarks, fellow horror sequels Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones posted $1.2 million on its way to an $18.3 million weekend in January 2014, whereas The Woman In Black 2 scored $1.5 million toward a $15.0 million frame in January 2015 — both of which opened on the comparable weekend as the latest Insidious. Those titles opened in less competitive markets when Thursday night openings were still in a nascent stage of popularity, offering some reason to believe The Last Key could prove a bit more front-loaded by dedicated fans.

No figures had been reported for Molly’s Game at the time of publishing, although it does expand to 1,608 locations this weekend.

Follow Boxoffice for official Friday estimates and early weekend projections on Saturday morning.

Boxoffice Staff

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