Weekend Projections: ‘Alien: Covenant’ Pacing for $40M; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’ Adds $35M; ‘Everything, Everything’ ($11M) Solid; ‘Wimpy Kid’ ($7.2M) Modest
Saturday Update: Alien: Covenant led the way on Friday with an estimated $15.35 million opening day, including Thursday evening’s start. By comparison, that comes fairly close to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s $16.6 million first day two years ago, although 28.5 percent behind the $21.466 million opening day of Prometheus in June 2012. The studio is projecting a weekend of $40.2 million, which would easily be enough to put it in first place of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2‘s third frame.
Speaking of Guardians, the Marvel sequel added $8.804 million yesterday to bring its domestic haul up to $275.5 million. A second place finish with around $35 million appears likely based on that figure.
Everything, Everything debuted with $4.72 million in third place yesterday, eyeing a weekend tally in the vicinity of $11 million. Snatched added $2.275 million to begin its second frame, looking toward a $7.3 million sophomore showing. Meanwhile, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul scored $2 million yesterday as it heads toward an opening weekend around $7.2 million.
Key weekend projections are below. Studio estimates will be published tomorrow.
|2||Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2||$35,000,000||-46%||4,347||0||$8,052||$301,737,474||3||Disney|
|3||Everything, Everything||$11,000,000||—||2,801||—||$3,927||$11,000,000||1||Warner Bros.|
|5||Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul||$7,200,000||—||3,157||—||$2,281||$7,200,000||1||20th Century Fox|
|6||King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword||$6,500,000||-58%||3,702||0||$1,756||$26,851,221||2||Warner Bros.|
|7||The Fate of the Furious||$3,000,000||-44%||2,287||-780||$1,312||$219,710,300||6||Universal|
|8||The Boss Baby||$2,600,000||-42%||2,071||-840||$1,255||$165,952,550||8||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|9||Beauty and the Beast||$2,300,000||-52%||1,792||-380||$1,283||$497,679,049||10||Disney|
|1||How to Be A Latin Lover||$1,700,000||-56%||948||-175||$1,793||$28,958,810||4||Lionsgate / Pantelion|
|4||Smurfs: The Lost Village||$600,000||-47%||652||-953||$920||$43,092,004||7||Sony / Columbia|
|5||Born in China||$460,000||-50%||575||-480||$800||$13,226,047||5||Disneynature|
Friday Report: Sources report this morning that Alien: Covenant launched with an estimated $4.2 million from Thursday night’s opening shows in around 3,000 theaters. Comparison are a bit thin at this point with the most relevant likely being Mad Max: Fury Road‘s $3.7 million start two years ago this month. That film, however, rode a wave of stellar reviews and word of mouth throughout opening weekend that helped it offset the usual trajectory of franchise sequels driven by fans.
For other comparisons, Independence Day: Resurgence posted a similar $4.0 million last summer. Prometheus took in $3.56 million back in June 2012, but that was strictly for midnight shows before the proliferation of 7pm launches.
Also, Everything, Everything scored $525,000 to begin its weekend. That comes in noticeably behind the $1.37 million start by Me Before You last summer, although generally within the realm of expectations for the low-budget young adult adaptation.
Meanwhile, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul took in $150,000 last night. The most relevant comparisons there would be Middle School and Wimpy Kid 2: Rodrick Rules with its early year opening in 2011, but neither reported pre-Friday grosses.
We’ll have further analysis and a better window into weekend projections with official Friday estimates from the studios on Saturday morning.