Weekend Projections: ‘Alien: Covenant’ Pacing for $40M; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’ Adds $35M; ‘Everything, Everything’ ($11M) Solid; ‘Wimpy Kid’ ($7.2M) Modest

Saturday Update: Alien: Covenant led the way on Friday with an estimated $15.35 million opening day, including Thursday evening’s start. By comparison, that comes fairly close to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s $16.6 million first day two years ago, although 28.5 percent behind the $21.466 million opening day of Prometheus in June 2012. The studio is projecting a weekend of $40.2 million, which would easily be enough to put it in first place of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2‘s third frame.

Speaking of Guardians, the Marvel sequel added $8.804 million yesterday to bring its domestic haul up to $275.5 million. A second place finish with around $35 million appears likely based on that figure.

Everything, Everything debuted with $4.72 million in third place yesterday, eyeing a weekend tally in the vicinity of $11 million. Snatched added $2.275 million to begin its second frame, looking toward a $7.3 million sophomore showing. Meanwhile, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul scored $2 million yesterday as it heads toward an opening weekend around $7.2 million.

Key weekend projections are below. Studio estimates will be published tomorrow.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Alien: Covenant $40,000,000 3,761 $10,635 $40,000,000 1 Fox
2 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $35,000,000 -46% 4,347 0 $8,052 $301,737,474 3 Disney
3 Everything, Everything $11,000,000 2,801 $3,927 $11,000,000 1 Warner Bros.
4 Snatched $7,300,000 -63% 3,511 10 $2,079 $32,482,600 2 Fox
5 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $7,200,000 3,157 $2,281 $7,200,000 1 20th Century Fox
6 King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword $6,500,000 -58% 3,702 0 $1,756 $26,851,221 2 Warner Bros.
7 The Fate of the Furious $3,000,000 -44% 2,287 -780 $1,312 $219,710,300 6 Universal
8 The Boss Baby $2,600,000 -42% 2,071 -840 $1,255 $165,952,550 8 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
9 Beauty and the Beast $2,300,000 -52% 1,792 -380 $1,283 $497,679,049 10 Disney

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 How to Be A Latin Lover $1,700,000 -56% 948 -175 $1,793 $28,958,810 4 Lionsgate / Pantelion
2 Lowriders $1,050,000 -56% 365 70 $2,877 $4,078,385 2 BH Tilt
3 Gifted $765,000 -50% 824 -602 $928 $22,899,058 7 Fox Searchlight
4 Smurfs: The Lost Village $600,000 -47% 652 -953 $920 $43,092,004 7 Sony / Columbia
5 Born in China $460,000 -50% 575 -480 $800 $13,226,047 5 Disneynature

===

Friday Report: Sources report this morning that Alien: Covenant launched with an estimated $4.2 million from Thursday night’s opening shows in around 3,000 theaters. Comparison are a bit thin at this point with the most relevant likely being Mad Max: Fury Road‘s $3.7 million start two years ago this month. That film, however, rode a wave of stellar reviews and word of mouth throughout opening weekend that helped it offset the usual trajectory of franchise sequels driven by fans.

For other comparisons, Independence Day: Resurgence posted a similar $4.0 million last summer. Prometheus took in $3.56 million back in June 2012, but that was strictly for midnight shows before the proliferation of 7pm launches.

Also, Everything, Everything scored $525,000 to begin its weekend. That comes in noticeably behind the $1.37 million start by Me Before You last summer, although generally within the realm of expectations for the low-budget young adult adaptation.

Meanwhile, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul took in $150,000 last night. The most relevant comparisons there would be Middle School and Wimpy Kid 2: Rodrick Rules with its early year opening in 2011, but neither reported pre-Friday grosses.

We’ll have further analysis and a better window into weekend projections with official Friday estimates from the studios on Saturday morning.

Boxoffice Staff

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