Weekend Projections: ‘Beauty and the Beast’ Eyes Another $51M; ‘The Boss Baby’ Overperforms w/ $50M; ‘Ghost in the Shell’ Cracks Underwhelming $20M

Saturday Update: Fox and DreamWorks Animation once again defied pre-release expectations as The Boss Baby debuted to a big $15.5 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $1.5 million take. That’s in line with the $15.7 million first day of Home back in March 2015, and significantly ahead of Mr. Peabody and Sherman ($8 million) and The Croods ($11.65 million). Tracking leading up to its opening had been trending upward from much lower potential two months ago. As recently as this week, a debut weekend north of $35-40 million seemed like its ceiling based on industry tracking and social media metrics. It appears Alec Baldwin’s timely voice work, a strong marketing campaign, and appeal to families with children too young for Beauty and the Beast and other films in the market were able to overcome the film’s otherwise middling signs. Look for the weekend to ring up around $50 million.

The race for first place is on, however, as Beauty and the Beast added $13.032 million yesterday, bringing its 15-day domestic cume to a massive $360.95 million. After entering Friday as the presumed favorite to win its third box office weekend, the Disney phenom is holding onto a slim advantage as it paces for what looks to be a $51 million frame.

Meanwhile, Ghost in the Shell under-performed with a modest $7.66 million debut in third place on Friday. Contrary to Boss Baby, pre-release buzz had been softening in the weeks leading up to its opening. Unfortunately, Scarlett Johansson’s star power wasn’t enough to overcome the fanboy-driven property’s limited appeal and challenging market circumstance after a month filled with male-leaning action flicks. With a “B” CinemaScore and a Flixster rating below 70 percent this morning, staying power isn’t likely to be strong. Opening weekend should net around $20 million.

Key weekend estimates based on studio Friday estimates are below. Studio weekend estimates will be released tomorrow.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Beauty and the Beast $51,000,000 -44% 4,210 0 $12,114 $398,916,842 3 Disney
2 The Boss Baby $50,000,000 3,773 $13,252 $50,000,000 1 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
3 Ghost in the Shell $20,000,000 3,440 $5,814 $20,000,000 1 Paramount / DreamWorks
4 Power Rangers $13,500,000 -67% 3,693 0 $3,656 $64,062,170 2 Lionsgate
5 Kong: Skull Island $9,300,000 -37% 3,141 -525 $2,961 $148,348,204 4 Warner Bros.
6 Logan $6,600,000 -36% 2,323 -840 $2,841 $212,267,637 5 Fox
7 Get Out $6,000,000 -32% 1,844 -630 $3,254 $157,073,960 6 Universal
8 Life (2017) $5,750,000 -54% 3,146 0 $1,828 $22,494,239 2 Sony / Columbia
9 CHiPs $4,100,000 -44% 2,464 0 $1,664 $14,412,366 2 Warner Bros.
10 The Shack $2,400,000 -38% 1,430 -900 $1,678 $53,315,007 5 Lionsgate / Summit

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Zookeeper’s Wife $3,500,000 541 $6,470 $3,500,000 1 Focus Features
2 The LEGO Batman Movie $950,000 -55% 812 -826 $1,170 $172,876,563 8 Warner Bros.
3 Hidden Figures $455,000 -40% 352 -288 $1,293 $167,845,673 15 Fox
4 T2: Trainspotting $360,000 -8% 140 81 $2,571 $1,137,507 5 Sony
5 Lion $240,000 -39% 175 -145 $1,371 $51,159,052 19 Weinstein Company
6 John Wick: Chapter 2 $235,000 -49% 210 -193 $1,119 $91,300,921 8 Lionsgate / Summit
7 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $230,000 -49% 224 -43 $1,027 $531,702,496 16 Disney
8 Sing (2016) $160,000 -24% 202 -26 $792 $269,949,195 15 Universal
9 La La Land $158,000 -19% 143 -69 $1,105 $150,484,591 17 Lionsgate / Summit
10 A Dog’s Purpose $145,000 -44% 189 -110 $767 $63,678,185 10 Universal
11 Wilson $125,000 -63% 311 1 $402 $602,329 2 Fox Searchlight
12 Moana $120,000 -43% 175 -37 $686 $248,567,777 19 Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 A United Kingdom $95,000 -49% 86 -73 $1,105 $3,710,965 8 Fox Searchlight
2 Phillauri $77,000 -70% 65 -9 $1,185 $422,812 2 FIP

In the meantime, we remain fully expectant that Beauty and the Beast will retain its box office crown for a third straight weekend as it continues to steamroll pre-summer/holiday box office records as the Mouse House’s latest cinematic phenom.

===

Friday Report: Paramount’s Ghost in the Shell launched to an estimated $1.8 million from 2,229 locations last night, including IMAX and 3D showings. By comparison, that comes in behind John Wick: Chapter 2‘s $2.2 million, Lucy‘s $2.7 million mid-summer start, in line with 10 Cloverfield Lane‘s $1.8 million, and ahead of Resident Evil: The Final Chapter‘s $1.0 million.

Also debuting this weekend, The Boss Baby scored $1.5 million last night as it now beings to look like the clear front-runner among the new releases over the full weekend. Last night’s take blew past Home‘s $650,000 two years ago, although the opening during Spring Break week is likely attributable to the large gap.

Key Friday estimates from the studios and weekend projections to follow on Saturday.

Boxoffice Staff

1 Comment

  1. Avatar
    wtf April 01, 2017

    Trolls overperformed and the Boss Baby will too.The question is why?If they were good films it wouldn’t be a surprise,but they are not.If the worst Dreamworks Animation movies can open to 45 and 50 million,then they are doing something right and there’s something wrong with people and kids in particular.

    Reply

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