Weekend Projections: ‘Cars 3’ ($51M) Eyes Victory Lap; ‘Wonder Woman’ Still Impressing ($40M); ‘All Eyez on Me’ ($30M) & ’47 Meters Down’ ($11M+) Overperform; ‘Rough Night’ Modest ($9M)

Saturday Update: Disney reports this morning that Cars 3 scored an estimated $19.5 million opening day Friday, including Thursday night grosses. Although that’s about 24 percent behind the $25.7 million first day of Cars 2 in June 2011, this is yet another Pixar victory as the sequel races toward what we’re projecting to be a solid first place opening weekend around $51 million.

Debuting in second place yesterday, All Eyez on Me massively over-performed expectations with $12.8 million in its first day. As we noted yesterday, some front-loading is expected, although it remains to be seen exactly how much. Lionsgate is now projecting a fantastic opening weekend over $30 million.

Wonder Woman continued to impress as it eased just 31 percent from last Friday to $10.85 million yesterday, giving it $244.7 million domestically through 15 days in play. This weekend should ring up close to another $40 million as the DC sensation continues to reel in audiences.

47 Meters Down opened to a strong $4.5 million yesterday, giving newbie distributor Entertainment Studios bragging rights in its first wide release venture. The shark thriller also bested pre-release tracking reports by capturing thriller fans and teens, two under-served audiences so far this summer. The studio expects around $12.5 million for the weekend, but if it plays out similarly to The Shallows last summer, we’re expecting around $11.3 million.

Last but not least, Rough Night took in $3.35 million in its first day. Unfortunately, this falls well below pre-release expectations as the raunchy R-rated comedy met stiff competition for the female audience with Wonder Woman still playing very strongly. Rough Night appears on track for an opening weekend around $9 million.

Key weekend projections are listed below. Studio estimates will be published on Sunday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Cars 3 $51,000,000 4,256 $11,983 $51,000,000 1 Disney
2 Wonder Woman $40,000,000 -32% 4,018 -147 $9,955 $273,826,730 3 Warner Bros.
3 All Eyez On Me $30,000,000 2,471 $12,141 $30,000,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit
4 The Mummy $13,700,000 -57% 4,034 -1 $3,396 $56,310,700 2 Universal
5 47 Meters Down $11,300,000 2,270 $4,978 $11,300,000 1 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
6 Rough Night $9,000,000 3,162 $2,846 $9,000,000 1 Sony
7 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $7,700,000 -28% 2,759 -920 $2,791 $149,308,114 4 Disney
8 Captain Underpants $7,250,000 -40% 2,968 -561 $2,443 $57,863,660 3 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
9 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $4,800,000 -24% 1,813 -1098 $2,648 $374,671,015 7 Disney
10 It Comes At Night $2,300,000 -62% 2,450 -83 $939 $10,823,164 2 A24
11 Baywatch $1,600,000 -66% 1,307 -1525 $1,224 $55,147,500 4 Paramount

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 My Cousin Rachel $520,000 -46% 531 8 $979 $1,964,163 2 Fox Searchlight
2 Alien: Covenant $460,000 -75% 400 -1414 $1,150 $72,645,985 5 Fox
3 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $310,000 -53% 255 -642 $1,216 $20,066,995 5 20th Century Fox
4 The Boss Baby $305,000 -40% 260 -172 $1,173 $172,474,543 12 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
5 Beauty and the Beast $200,000 -47% 242 -74 $826 $503,293,014 14 Disney
6 Snatched $100,000 -80% 211 -440 $474 $45,376,729 6 Fox
7 Gifted $70,000 -37% 100 -62 $700 $24,420,947 11 Fox Searchlight

===

Friday Report: Lionsgate’s All Eyez on Me took the Thursday night opening crown with a reported $3.1 million bow. That’s a strong start for the film — especially considering the more heavily marketed Straight Outta Compton took $4.96 million in its launch — although some natural front-loading is to be expected given the release coinciding with what would have been Tupac Shakur’s 46th birthday today.

Disney/Pixar’s Cars 3 took in a healthy $2.8 million last night, slightly ahead of Monsters University‘s $2.6 million Thursday start. Notably, however, Thursday night attendance habits have significantly increased in the four summers since that Pixar sequel debuted, so Cars 3‘s trajectory may yet still differ over the weekend. That being said, Father’s Day is expected to be a boon for the toon’s business come Sunday. Inside Out, which also opened over Father’s Day weekend two Junes ago, earned $3.7 million in its Thursday bow.

47 Meters Down hauled in a solid $735,000 last night, according to sources. That’s a bit more than half The Shallows‘ $1.33 million Thursday start last summer.

Last but not least, Rough Night kicked off with $700,000 last evening, well behind the $2.0 million start of Bad Moms last summer but slightly ahead of Snatched‘s $600,000 last month.

We’ll have key Friday estimates directly from the studios on Saturday morning along with initial weekend projections.

Boxoffice Staff

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Justin June 16, 2017

    Looks like I was right to compare All Eyez on Me to 2009 Notorious. Like I said reviews don’t matter plus it’s a demographic that never has movies made for it. The movie will fall off a cliff next weekend but it’s going to over perform all weekend in urban markets.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      J June 16, 2017

      Reviews don’t matter, but maybe Jada does.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Justin June 16, 2017

        No one cares about Jada Pickett Smith. All Eyez on Me is going to make 30+million this weekend.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Austin June 16, 2017

          We’ll see. The release of All Eyez on Me coincides with the rapper’s birthday (today), which is a great but not commonly exploited release tactic by Lionsgate. The film is definitely crossing $20 million easily. However, the question I’m trying to figure out is how much of the weekend audience is showing up to it on this particular day? I know that the movie will be undoubtedly front-loaded (mostly thanks to the reviews), but a biographical movie released on the subject’s birth date isn’t a trend that’s well-recorded.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Austin June 18, 2017

          All Eyez on Me is breaking past $20 million for sure, but since Friday Afternoon, estimates have decreased from $35 million to $30 million according to Deadline. This puts All Eyez on Me at a great risk of failing to cross $30 million (I think it is 60% probable at this point).

          Reply
        • Avatar
          J June 18, 2017

          Wrong-27 million. Don’t be too sure about your predictions. This movie is extremely frontloaded and while I underestimated it, you overestimated it. So you were wrong, and so was I.

          Reply
  2. Avatar
    adina June 17, 2017

    Rough Night didn’t take a modest weekend, it was a flop!

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Matteo D. June 17, 2017

    I say Cars 3 makes $58 M opening weekend. Even though the first film made the same opening day number as this one. Probably finish around $190 M in total

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Austin June 17, 2017

    I correctly called that 47 Meters down could be a breakout (though it’s a little higher than I expected), It Comes at Night was taking a steep drop of 58% or higher (now confirmed at 60% or more), and that Cars 3 might not break $60 million on its opening weekend (it’s nearing the $50 million mark instead). In my previous comment on this article, I started to realize that All Eyez on Me will break $20 million. However, since Friday afternoon, the estimated opening for All Eyez on Me went from $35 to $30 million, and it’s possible that it could fail to break the $30 million mark this weekend.
    However, I was WAY off on Rough Night despite being right to say that it would never reach a $20 million opening. At a $20 million budget and a total cost of $35 million (advertising included), Rough Night is going to do what every R-rated comedy has practically done this year: flop. That $9 million opening will lead to a 54% drop unless the audience rating is as dentrimental as it sounds (I see a potential 59% drop here). Then, instead of earning $60 million to break even, it will fail to reach $30 million and maybe even $25 million domestically. Credit to J for calling Rough Night’s prediction too high and Deadline for budget and cost numbers for Rough Night. All I can say is that this sets a negative precedent for the following movies: The House and Girl’s Trip. It now looks like Deadpool 2 may have to single-handedly save the R-rated comedy movies next year.

    Reply

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