Weekend Projections: ‘Cars 3’ ($51M) Eyes Victory Lap; ‘Wonder Woman’ Still Impressing ($40M); ‘All Eyez on Me’ ($30M) & ’47 Meters Down’ ($11M+) Overperform; ‘Rough Night’ Modest ($9M)
Saturday Update: Disney reports this morning that Cars 3 scored an estimated $19.5 million opening day Friday, including Thursday night grosses. Although that’s about 24 percent behind the $25.7 million first day of Cars 2 in June 2011, this is yet another Pixar victory as the sequel races toward what we’re projecting to be a solid first place opening weekend around $51 million.
Debuting in second place yesterday, All Eyez on Me massively over-performed expectations with $12.8 million in its first day. As we noted yesterday, some front-loading is expected, although it remains to be seen exactly how much. Lionsgate is now projecting a fantastic opening weekend over $30 million.
Wonder Woman continued to impress as it eased just 31 percent from last Friday to $10.85 million yesterday, giving it $244.7 million domestically through 15 days in play. This weekend should ring up close to another $40 million as the DC sensation continues to reel in audiences.
47 Meters Down opened to a strong $4.5 million yesterday, giving newbie distributor Entertainment Studios bragging rights in its first wide release venture. The shark thriller also bested pre-release tracking reports by capturing thriller fans and teens, two under-served audiences so far this summer. The studio expects around $12.5 million for the weekend, but if it plays out similarly to The Shallows last summer, we’re expecting around $11.3 million.
Last but not least, Rough Night took in $3.35 million in its first day. Unfortunately, this falls well below pre-release expectations as the raunchy R-rated comedy met stiff competition for the female audience with Wonder Woman still playing very strongly. Rough Night appears on track for an opening weekend around $9 million.
Key weekend projections are listed below. Studio estimates will be published on Sunday.
|2||Wonder Woman||$40,000,000||-32%||4,018||-147||$9,955||$273,826,730||3||Warner Bros.|
|3||All Eyez On Me||$30,000,000||—||2,471||—||$12,141||$30,000,000||1||Lionsgate / Summit|
|5||47 Meters Down||$11,300,000||—||2,270||—||$4,978||$11,300,000||1||Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures|
|7||Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales||$7,700,000||-28%||2,759||-920||$2,791||$149,308,114||4||Disney|
|8||Captain Underpants||$7,250,000||-40%||2,968||-561||$2,443||$57,863,660||3||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|9||Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2||$4,800,000||-24%||1,813||-1098||$2,648||$374,671,015||7||Disney|
|10||It Comes At Night||$2,300,000||-62%||2,450||-83||$939||$10,823,164||2||A24|
|1||My Cousin Rachel||$520,000||-46%||531||8||$979||$1,964,163||2||Fox Searchlight|
|3||Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul||$310,000||-53%||255||-642||$1,216||$20,066,995||5||20th Century Fox|
|4||The Boss Baby||$305,000||-40%||260||-172||$1,173||$172,474,543||12||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|5||Beauty and the Beast||$200,000||-47%||242||-74||$826||$503,293,014||14||Disney|
Friday Report: Lionsgate’s All Eyez on Me took the Thursday night opening crown with a reported $3.1 million bow. That’s a strong start for the film — especially considering the more heavily marketed Straight Outta Compton took $4.96 million in its launch — although some natural front-loading is to be expected given the release coinciding with what would have been Tupac Shakur’s 46th birthday today.
Disney/Pixar’s Cars 3 took in a healthy $2.8 million last night, slightly ahead of Monsters University‘s $2.6 million Thursday start. Notably, however, Thursday night attendance habits have significantly increased in the four summers since that Pixar sequel debuted, so Cars 3‘s trajectory may yet still differ over the weekend. That being said, Father’s Day is expected to be a boon for the toon’s business come Sunday. Inside Out, which also opened over Father’s Day weekend two Junes ago, earned $3.7 million in its Thursday bow.
47 Meters Down hauled in a solid $735,000 last night, according to sources. That’s a bit more than half The Shallows‘ $1.33 million Thursday start last summer.
Last but not least, Rough Night kicked off with $700,000 last evening, well behind the $2.0 million start of Bad Moms last summer but slightly ahead of Snatched‘s $600,000 last month.
We’ll have key Friday estimates directly from the studios on Saturday morning along with initial weekend projections.