Weekend Projections: ‘The Fate of the Furious’ Pacing for $100M+ Domestically & $530M+ All-Time Global Opening Record
Saturday Update: Universal reports The Fate of the Furious took in an estimated $45.631 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday’s previously reported evening grosses. That comes in 32.4 percent below the $67.4 million first day of Furious 7 on opening day two years ago, which was driven by high intrigue around Paul Walker’s final role following his tragic car accident in 2013. Still, this marks the second biggest launch for the Fast franchise, topping Fast & Furious 6‘s $38.7 million opening day four years ago by 18 percent.
Initial weekend projections for Fate, taking Easter into account on Sunday, hover between $100-104 million — slightly below pre-weekend tracking and most (including our own) industry forecasts but still a very robust haul that leaves it in a position to challenge The Jungle Book ($103.26 million) as the second biggest April opener of all-time once actuals are tallied on Monday. Universal itself projects $103.8 million, in line with its pre-weekend expectation.
On the international front, Fate scored $112.1 million outside North America, giving Universal its highest international Friday gross of all-time. The film’s overseas total stands at $194.8 million through two days. The studio’s international weekend estimate is $430.4 million, which would top Jurassic World‘s $316.7 million as the biggest international weekend in history.
If those projections hold, Fate would ultimately top Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ $529 million to become the biggest global opening of all-time with an estimated $534.2 million through Sunday. However, the asterisk there is that Fate bowed to an all-time Chinese box office record $65.6 million opening day yesterday. Force Awakens didn’t open in China until one month after its domestic release. Either way, this is resoundingly big news for the studio and the Furious franchise.
Meanwhile, back on the domestic front, The Boss Baby added $6.535 million yesterday, bringing its domestic haul up to $107.3 million through 15 days. Its third weekend should ring up around $15.6 million. Beauty and the Beast rounded out the top three with $5.095 million, sending it to $446.1 million domestically through 29 days and into 14th place on the all-time list (ahead of Shrek 2‘s $441.2 million). Its overall weekend is likely to net $12.7 million.
Key domestic weekend projections based on Friday estimates from the studios can be found below. Their official estimates will be published on Sunday.
|1||The Fate of the Furious||$103,800,000||—||4,310||—||$24,084||$103,800,000||1||Universal|
|2||The Boss Baby||$15,600,000||-41%||3,743||-86||$4,168||$116,383,907||3||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|3||Beauty and the Beast||$12,700,000||-46%||3,592||-377||$3,536||$453,715,751||5||Disney|
|4||Smurfs: The Lost Village||$6,400,000||-52%||3,610||0||$1,773||$23,349,705||2||Sony / Columbia|
|5||Going in Style||$6,200,000||-48%||3,076||15||$2,016||$23,226,352||2||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9||The Case For Christ||$2,600,000||-34%||1,386||212||$1,876||$8,327,704||2||Pure Flix|
|10||Kong: Skull Island||$2,400,000||-57%||2,018||-735||$1,189||$160,976,181||6||Warner Bros.|
|11||Ghost in the Shell||$2,100,000||-71%||2,135||-1305||$984||$36,723,283||3||Paramount / DreamWorks|
|12||The Zookeeper’s Wife||$1,850,000||-31%||1,057||251||$1,750||$10,452,955||3||Focus Features|
|14||The Shack||$580,000||-47%||1,048||-60||$553||$56,004,060||7||Lionsgate / Summit|
|1||Spark: A Space Tail||$115,000||—||365||—||$315||$115,000||1||Open Road Films|
Friday Report: The Fate of the Furious scored an estimated $10.4 million from Thursday evening’s opening shows, coming in an expected 34 percent behind Furious 7‘s $15.8 million Thursday night launch (which also fell before Good Friday) in 2015. Should it play out exactly like that film, Fate would score around $97 million for the weekend — however, due to the Easter holiday and different circumstances surrounding this film’s release, less front-loading could reasonably be expected for a higher possible weekend total.
More will be clear with complete Friday estimates, which will be reported by the studios on Saturday morning.