Weekend Projections: ‘Logan’ Shreds $80M+ Debut for Jackman/Stewart Finale; ‘Get Out’ Adds Impressive $26M; ‘The Shack’ Debuts Strong w/ $14.5M

Saturday Update: Fox and James Mangold’s Logan smashed into theaters with an opening day of $33 million. That bests the most recent live action comic book tentpole opening — Doctor Strange‘s $32.6 million — while also topping X-Men: Apocalypse ($26.3 million) by 25.5 percent. Even more impressive is the fact that Logan did so without the aid of 3D prices like the two aforementioned films. For the film’s lead character himself, Hugh Jackman’s swan song turned in a 60 percent higher opening day than 2013’s The Wolverine ($20.656 million).

Adding to the fantastic start is remarkably strong reception for Logan. Critics have given it a 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes as of this morning, while Flixster audiences currently stand at an impressive 95 percent — their highest “day after release” score of any wide release since Zootopia (95 percent) exactly one year ago this weekend. John Wick: Chapter 2 previously came the closest with 94 percent, followed by Hidden Figures‘ 93 percent.

For the weekend, it seems reasonable to expect some usual superhero front-loading… although this isn’t your typical superhero film. For now, we’re projecting close to an $82.5 million weekend based on the trends of Friday’s performance. That would place it pretty close to our expectations in the months leading up to release, and notably ahead of the studio’s mid-60s projection earlier this week.

Speaking of impressing, Get Out remains a force to be reckoned with as it added another $8 million yesterday — down just 26 percent from opening day last week. We’re now projecting a sophomore weekend around $26 million as it lives up to and beyond its breakout status.

The Shack debuted very well on Friday also, attracting faith-based audiences and fans of the original novel to the tune of $5.45 million, nearly 35 percent more than War Room‘s $4.05 million first day in August 2015.  Its distributor, Lionsgate, is projecting an excellent first weekend around $14.5 million. Shack‘s Flixster score is also healthy this morning at 87 percent, in addition to an “A” CinemaScore.

Meanwhile, The LEGO Batman Movie added $2.475 million yesterday for a 22-day domestic total now of $139.5 million. Before I Fall debuted to a modest $1.67 million on Friday.

Our key weekend projections based on studio Friday estimates are below. Their weekend estimates will be released on Sunday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Logan $82,500,000 4,071 $20,265 $82,500,000 1 Fox
2 Get Out $26,000,000 -22% 2,938 157 $8,850 $75,843,640 2 Universal
3 The Shack $14,500,000 2,888 $5,021 $14,500,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit
4 The LEGO Batman Movie $11,300,000 -41% 3,656 -401 $3,091 $148,281,801 4 Warner Bros.
5 John Wick: Chapter 2 $4,750,000 -49% 2,475 -479 $1,919 $82,890,972 4 Lionsgate / Summit
6 Before I Fall $4,500,000 2,346 $1,918 $4,500,000 1 Open Road
7 Hidden Figures $3,700,000 -36% 1,582 -440 $2,339 $158,640,439 11 Fox
8 The Great Wall $3,600,000 -61% 2,314 -1014 $1,556 $41,361,305 3 Universal
9 Fifty Shades Darker $3,500,000 -55% 2,205 -1011 $1,587 $109,927,315 4 Universal
10 La La Land $3,100,000 -34% 1,411 -322 $2,197 $145,809,362 13 Lionsgate / Summit
11 Fist Fight $2,800,000 -57% 2,303 -882 $1,216 $28,226,175 3 Warner Bros. / New Line
12 Split $2,200,000 -46% 1,126 -775 $1,954 $134,152,900 7 Universal
13 Lion $2,100,000 -45% 1,260 -542 $1,667 $46,490,550 15 Weinstein Company
14 Rock Dog $2,000,000 -46% 2,077 0 $963 $6,434,298 2 Summit Premiere
15 A Dog’s Purpose $1,600,000 -55% 1,494 -595 $1,071 $60,057,570 6 Universal
16 Collide $160,000 -89% 1,002 -1043 $160 $2,183,034 2 Open Road

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Table 19 $1,500,000 868 $1,728 $1,500,000 1 Fox Searchlight
2 Moana $650,000 -21% 321 -57 $2,025 $246,902,402 15 Disney
3 A United Kingdom $610,000 20% 271 123 $2,251 $1,792,249 4 Fox Searchlight
4 Fences $315,000 -59% 284 -313 $1,109 $57,126,785 12 Paramount
5 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $250,000 -41% 165 -119 $1,515 $529,854,792 12 Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Jackie $46,500 -58% 70 -42 $664 $13,835,559 14 Fox Searchlight
2 Doctor Strange $44,000 -46% 81 -24 $543 $232,595,918 18 Disney

===

Friday Morning: Fox reports today that Logan rolled into theaters with a big $9.5 million opening night on Thursday, setting the stage for an excellent weekend ahead. By comparison, Logan came in 16 percent ahead of X-Men: Apocalypse‘s $8.2 million Thursday start last May and 17 percent ahead of X-Men: Days of Future Past ($8.1 million) in May 2014. Outside of the franchise, last night’s take was a hair above the most recent comic book tentpole — Doctor Strange‘s $9.4 million in November — and just 7 percent behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $10.2 million in April 2014.

Also getting off to an excellent start last night was Lionsgate’s The Shack, the latest faith-based film adapted from a bestselling novel. The push for churchgoers to drive early sales paid off with an estimated $850,000 earned last night, coming in 42 percent ahead of War Room‘s $600,000 in August 2015 and 77 percent stronger than The Young Messiah‘s $480,000 one year ago this month.

No Thursday grosses were reported for Before I Fall at the time of this article’s publishing, but it is unfortunately expected to have a modest debut over the weekend. Meanwhile, holdover Get Out is aiming to post a strong hold in its second frame as strong word of mouth continues to propel it after last week’s breakout debut.

We’ll have key official Friday estimates from the studios along with weekend projections based on those numbers come Saturday morning.

Boxoffice Staff

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