Weekend Projections: ‘Moana’ Adds Strong $29M; ‘Fantastic Beasts’ Tacks On $16M; ‘Incarnate’ Soft at $2.1M; ‘Manchester By the Sea’ Expands Well w/ $2M

Saturday Update: Disney’s Moana is poised to lead its second weekend, as expected, but with an even stronger post-Thanksgiving hold than previous Disney release Frozen as the former title eyes a $29 million sophomore frame. That would represent a 49% drop from last weekend, compared to Frozen‘s 53%. Moana‘s ten-day cume stands at an excellent $97.96 million.

Meanwhile, Fantastic Beasts continues to hold relatively well as it added $5.04 million yesterday and reached a domestic tally of $170 million through 15 days of play. That film will take second place comfortably over the weekend.

New releases Incarnate and Believe drew comparatively modest crowds with respective opening days of $915,000 and $168,900. The former of the two had been experimenting with a unique marketing and distribution strategy under Blumhouse and High Top Releasing as it targeted theaters that favor genre-friendly audiences. Respectively, the two films will debut to around $2.1 million and $480,000.

Last but not least, Manchester By the Sea posted $666,000 as it expanded into 156 locations yesterday. A weekend around $2 million looks likely as the awards season contender begins its staggered roll out into nationwide play.

Our key FSS projections are below. Official weekend estimates from the studios will be published on Sunday, followed by final results on Monday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Moana $29,000,000 -49% 3,875 0 $7,484 $120,515,330 2 Disney
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them $16,000,000 -65% 3,988 -156 $4,012 $180,962,403 3 Warner Bros.
3 Arrival $7,200,000 -37% 2,915 473 $2,470 $72,978,514 4 Paramount
4 Allied $7,000,000 -45% 3,160 0 $2,215 $28,877,432 2 Paramount
5 Doctor Strange $6,500,000 -53% 2,935 -73 $2,215 $215,323,177 5 Disney
6 Trolls $4,500,000 -58% 3,156 -166 $1,426 $141,271,445 5 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
7 Hacksaw Ridge $3,400,000 -38% 2,494 162 $1,363 $57,264,956 5 Lionsgate
8 Bad Santa 2 $3,000,000 -51% 2,945 25 $1,019 $14,001,043 2 Broad Green Pictures
9 Almost Christmas $2,400,000 -58% 1,556 -213 $1,542 $38,047,150 4 Universal
10 Incarnate $2,100,000 1,737 $1,209 $2,100,000 1 High Top / BH Tilt
11 The Edge of Seventeen $1,700,000 -43% 1,608 -337 $1,057 $12,808,490 3 STX Entertainment
12 Rules Don’t Apply $670,000 -58% 2,386 4 $281 $3,437,655 2 20th Century Fox

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Manchester By the Sea $2,000,000 63% 156 108 $12,821 $4,059,943 3 Roadside / Amazon
2 The Accountant $760,000 -27% 608 52 $1,250 $84,255,470 8 Warner Bros.
3 Believe (2016) $480,000 639 $751 $480,000 1 Freestyle Releasing
4 Bleed for This $280,000 -70% 649 -900 $431 $4,832,190 3 Open Road

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Jackie $260,000 5 $52,000 $260,000 1 Fox Searchlight
2 Lion $86,000 -30% 7 3 $12,286 $245,148 2 Weinstein Company
3 Miss Sloane $35,000 -41% 4 1 $8,750 $114,036 2 EuropaCorp