Weekend Projections: ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’ Soars to Excellent $120M Debut as Marvel’s Streak Continues

Saturday Update: Spidey is back. The first collaboration between Sony and Marvel Studios webbed an estimated $50.5 million opening day on Friday, including Thursday evening’s robust $15.4 million opening show grosses. By comparison, the overall opening day registers 44 percent ahead of 2014’s Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($35.2 million), 37 percent ahead of Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($36.9 million), and just 1 percent behind Iron Man 2 ($51.2 million).

In fact, Homecoming now claims the second highest debut of any Spider-Man film, trailing only 2007’s Spider-Man 3, which earned $59.84 million on opening day (although 2004’s Spider-Man 2 opened on a Wednesday and skews comparisons). Excellent word of mouth is quickly spreading with the film’s “A” CinemaScore and 92 percent Flixster audience score as of this morning. With appeal to Marvel fans, Spidey fans, and families at large, the film is widely expected to play very well throughout opening weekend and beyond through the end of summer as one of the last all-audience offerings of the season.

Based on past trajectories of Marvel films such as Ant-Man and Guardians of the Galaxy, we’re projecting an opening weekend between $120 million and $125 million, although there could arguably be a bit more upside given the buzz around the film so far and Marvel’s tendencies to drive strong matinee business on Saturdays and Sundays. Of note, Sony themselves are projecting between $119 million and $121 million for the weekend. All-time, the film looks to be on pace to mark the fifth best July opening weekend ever — behind Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest ($135.6 million) and Minions ($115.7 million).

Meanwhile, Despicable Me 3 eased 61 percent from last Friday to $11.33 million yesterday. That gives the sequel an eight-day domestic haul of $126.5 million, with eyes toward a sophomore weekend close to $38.5 million as the film continues its excellent debut in China.

Rounding out the top three, Baby Driver continues its sleeper hit run with another $3.9 million in the bank yesterday, down just 36 percent from last Friday. With $48 million in all through ten days of play, the Edgar Wright film is pacing just 2 percent behind This Is the End (48.92) and 17 percent ahead of Now You See Me 2 (41.09). We and the studio are projecting a sophomore frame around $12.5 million.

Also of noteworthy mention, Wonder Woman fell only 33 percent from last Friday to $2.94 million yesterday, arriving at $361.6 million domestically so far and another likely weekend close to $9.8 million. That’s another in a long line of remarkable holds for the DC film, especially since comic book films typically experience far sharper declines when facing new competition in the same genre (as is the case this weekend with Spidey).

Meanwhile, The Big Sick continues it successful expansion with an estimated $1.1 million in limited release on Friday. That takes its tally up to $4.37 million as the strongly reviewed romantic comedy heads toward what the studio projects will be a weekend around $3.6 million before its nationwide expansion next week.

Complete weekend estimates from the studios will be published on Sunday. For now, our key weekend projections are below.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Spider-Man: Homecoming $125,000,000 4,348 $28,749 $125,000,000 1 Sony / Columbia
2 Despicable Me 3 $38,500,000 -47% 4,535 6 $8,490 $153,690,660 2 Universal
3 Baby Driver $12,500,000 -39% 3,226 0 $3,875 $56,633,072 2 Sony / TriStar
4 Wonder Woman $9,800,000 -38% 3,091 -313 $3,170 $368,451,191 6 Warner Bros.
5 Transformers: The Last Knight $5,900,000 -65% 3,241 -891 $1,820 $118,516,760 3 Paramount
6 Cars 3 $5,700,000 -41% 2,702 -874 $2,110 $133,797,412 4 Disney
7 The House (2017) $4,700,000 -49% 3,134 0 $1,500 $18,515,678 2 Warner Bros. / New Line
8 47 Meters Down $2,600,000 -42% 1,741 -509 $1,493 $38,293,738 4 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
9 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $1,250,000 -51% 1,039 -635 $1,203 $168,875,297 7 Disney
10 The Mummy $1,200,000 -60% 1,045 -715 $1,148 $78,010,270 5 Universal

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Big Sick $3,600,000 118% 326 255 $11,043 $6,870,323 3 Lionsgate
2 The Beguiled $2,100,000 -34% 941 267 $2,232 $7,449,334 3 Focus Features
3 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $830,000 -46% 660 -306 $1,258 $385,530,006 10 Disney
4 All Eyez On Me $550,000 -70% 599 -659 $918 $44,260,039 4 Lionsgate / Summit
5 Captain Underpants $355,000 -68% 407 -1045 $872 $70,558,540 6 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6 The Boss Baby $190,000 -14% 195 -20 $974 $173,911,946 15 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
7 Beauty and the Beast $50,000 -35% 110 -46 $455 $503,975,432 17 Disney

===

Friday Report: Sony announced this morning that Spider-Man: Homecoming webbed an excellent $15.4 million start on Thursday evening from shows beginning at 7pm in 3,493 locations. The film expands to 4,348 locations on Friday.

By comparison, that figure comes in 40 percent stronger than Wonder Woman‘s opening night gross of $11 million, 37.5 percent higher than Guardians of the Galaxy‘s $11.2 million in August 2014, 77 percent higher than The Amazing Spider-Man 2‘s $8.7 million in May 2014, and 141 percent more than Ant-Man‘s $6.4 million in July 2015.

All told, Spidey’s huge fan base among comic fans could generate a bit more frontloading than some of those films did (especially with the July release), but an opening weekend north of $100 million is all but assured at this point. Based on early word of mouth, strong reviews, the character’s broad appeal across all ages, and other factors, there’s a strong chance at this stage the film will exceed most industry expectations and land close to Boxoffice’s pre-release forecasts. As always though, things remain up in the air until we get a clearer picture of how “Friday proper” business shapes up today.

We’ll have official Friday estimates and key weekend projections on Saturday morning. Be sure to check out our interview with the writers of Spider-Man: Homecoming, John Francis Daley and Jonathan Goldstein.

===

Thursday Report: Fandango’s official press release:

LOS ANGELES – JULY 6, 2017 – Marvel Studios’ “Spider-Man: Homecoming,” starring Tom Holland as the new Peter Parker/Spider-Man, is finding a home at the top of Fandango’s weekend sales andFanticipation movie buzz indicator with 97 out of 100 points.

As of Thursday morning, “Homecoming” is outpacing “Wonder Woman” at the same point in the Fandango ticket sales cycle.

According to a Fandango survey of more than 1,000 “Spider-Man: Homecoming” moviegoers:

  • 89% are more excited to see “Homecoming” because of Holland’s credibility as a high school character.
  • 87% have seen multiple “Spider-Man” movies on the big screen.
  • 86% are fans of Robert Downey, Jr.; 70% are fans of Michael Keaton.

“The strong advance ticket sales for ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’ represent a great start for Spidey’s main entrance into the Marvel Cinematic Universe,” says Fandango Managing Editor Erik Davis. “With terrific action set-pieces and some of the funniest scenes in any Marvel movie, ‘Homecoming’ is likely to see repeat viewing business throughout the summer.”

About Fanticipation       

Known for having its finger on the pulse of moviegoers, Fandango’s movie buzz indicator, Fanticipation, provides statistical insight into the movies fans are planning to see in a given weekend. Fanticipation scores (based on a 1 to 100-point scale) are calculated via an algorithm of Fandango’s advance ticket sales, website and mobile traffic, and social media engagement. Fanticipation is not intended as a forecast of the weekend box office; it is a snapshot of movie fan sentiment. Fandango is the ultimate digital network for all things movies, reaching more than 60 million unique visitors per month across its portfolio of digital properties, according to comScore.

Boxoffice Staff

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Ian July 06, 2017

    Go Spidey 🕷🕷🕷

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Lucas July 06, 2017

    Go Spidey

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Austin July 07, 2017

    Definitely a strong opening night, but we’ll see to what extent families and front-loading impact this film. I’m thinking it’ll hit $110 million, but the range is between $105 million and $120 million at this point.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    DangerS July 08, 2017

    Good thing to know that the film will do $120M+. Actually Deadline predicts an opening of $125-127M right now. Good thing that the industry was predicting just $100M, because they can finally say that a film overperformed this summer.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      J July 08, 2017

      Wonder Woman overperformed too.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        DangerS July 09, 2017

        Well, that was another movie that was ridiculously underestimated (in terms of opening weekend, none really saw these legs coming) but it was followed by a series of films that didn’t meet expectations (Mummy, Cars 3, Transformers, Despicable Me 3 and some smaller ones). So… I guess then the industry can claim that it’s the second big film of the Summer that overperformed, but the first one in an entire month.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 09, 2017

      Solid play from Spider-Man, earning anywhere now between $115-130 million, leaving my $110-115 million prediction in the dust. It could still be overestimated, but not by much anymore. I’ll still wait for Monday actuals, even if there is no doubt remaining about Spider-Man’s quite unexpected performance.
      My question about Spider-Man’s impacts on Wonder Woman are answered now: Wonder Woman received very little to no harm from Spider-Man with a drop of 33%. In fact, Wonder Woman is practically all set to be the highest grossing superhero movie of the year with Justice League being the only considerable threat in November.

      Reply

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