Early Weekend Estimates: ‘Jumanji’ Eyes Another $20M+; ’12 Strong’ & ‘Den of Thieves’ Surprise ($15M); ‘The Post,’ ‘Greatest Showman,’ & ‘Paddington 2’ Hold Well; ‘Star Wars’ Verges on $600M Barrier

Saturday Update: It was a dead heat atop the box office on Friday as both 12 Strong and Den of Thieves are out-performing pre-release expectations, each taking in an estimated $5.66 million (including Thursday night earnings) for a first place tie yesterday. 12 Strong had trailed Thieves by just $50,000 on Thursday night alone, meaning it actually won the day on Friday proper by a $50,000 margin itself. Following last week’s The Commuter and its ability to beat opening weekend forecasts, early 2018 is proving off to a solid start for male-driven action films. That status quo will be tested tomorrow, though, as the NFL playoffs continue in lead up to the Super Bowl two weeks from now. STX is projecting Thieves to net $15.1 million for opening weekend, so we’re giving the same projection to 12 Strong today until further reports are available on Sunday morning.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continues its rampage on the box office with another $4.85 million taken in yesterday. The blockbuster breakout has crossed the $300 million threshold stateside, standing at a massive $301.8 million through Friday as it will, on Saturday, become Sony’s fifth highest grossing film of all-time (surpassing Skyfall‘s $304.4 million). Jumanji has long since surpassed the final domestic take of Night at the Museum ($250.9 million) — but the former is now staring down the 2006 film’s inflation-adjusted gross of $340 million (based on 2018 ticket prices). By comparison, Welcome to the Jungle is 10.4 percent ahead of NATM‘s 31-day pace ($273.34 million adjusted). Sony is projecting a $20.5 million weekend.

The Post eased an expected 41 percent from its wide opening day last week to $3.5 million yesterday, giving it a healthy $36.54 million in all thus far. According to Fox, the Spielberg/Streep/Hanks film is eyeing an encouraging $12.05 million frame as it heads into the heart of award season with Oscar nominations due to be announced on Tuesday morning. The film has earned $32.05 million since debuting nationwide last weekend, putting it nearly 31 percent ahead of the pace of Bridge of Spies (which earned $24.54 million in its first eight days as part of a standard wide release pattern).

The Greatest Showman continues to impress in big ways as it earned another $3.0 million yesterday, down just under 2 percent from the same day last week. Word of mouth for the Hugh Jackman-led musical has been phenomenal since its pre-Christmas launch, and its momentum doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. With $105.5 million in the domestic bank through Friday, Fox is calling for another $11.4 million weekend.

Holdover The Commuter slipped 56 percent from opening day last weekend to $1.967 million yesterday, bringing its eight-day cume to $20.1 million. We’re projecting a sophomore frame around $6.9 million.

Meanwhile, Insidious: The Last Key added $1.79 million for an updated cume of $54.6 million through yesterday; Paddington 2 held well with just a 27 percent drop from opening day last week to $1.765 million yesterday and an eight-day total of $18.6 million; Star Wars: The Last Jedi tacked on $1.651 million yesterday for a new domestic tally of $599.4 million. The ninth live action film in the venerable franchise is set to become only the sixth film in history to cross the $600 million domestic threshold early on Saturday afternoon.

Last but not least, Forever My Girl opened to $1.465 million from 1,115 theaters yesterday, while Phantom Thread expanded to 896 locations with $1.037 million on Friday.

A mix of studio-sent and our own weekend estimates are below. Updated estimates from all studios will follow on Sunday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $20,500,000 -27% 3,704 -145 $5,535 $317,445,148 5 Sony / Columbia
2 12 Strong $15,100,000 3,002 $5,030 $15,100,000 1 Warner Bros.
3 Den of Thieves $15,100,000 2,432 $6,209 $15,100,000 1 STX Entertainment
4 The Post $12,050,000 -38% 2,851 32 $4,227 $45,091,402 5 20th Century Fox
5 The Greatest Showman $11,400,000 -9% 2,823 -115 $4,038 $113,880,607 5 Fox
6 Paddington 2 $8,300,000 -25% 3,702 0 $2,242 $25,101,233 2 Warner Bros.
7 The Commuter $6,900,000 -50% 2,892 0 $2,386 $25,923,529 2 Lionsgate
8 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $6,800,000 -43% 2,456 -634 $2,769 $604,518,476 6 Disney
9 Insidious: The Last Key $5,700,000 -54% 2,546 -604 $2,239 $58,484,265 3 Universal
10 Proud Mary $3,400,000 -66% 2,125 0 $1,600 $16,681,604 2 Sony / Screen Gems
11 Forever My Girl $3,100,000 1,115 $2,780 $3,100,000 1 Roadside Attractions/LD Entertainment
12 Pitch Perfect 3 $2,900,000 -52% 1,772 -733 $1,637 $100,413,045 5 Universal
13 Darkest Hour $2,900,000 -35% 1,341 -352 $2,163 $40,963,177 9 Focus Features
14 Ferdinand $1,860,000 -47% 1,212 -942 $1,535 $79,346,216 6 Fox

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Phantom Thread $3,400,000 196% 896 834 $3,795 $6,212,729 4 Focus Features
2 The Shape of Water $2,330,000 -18% 853 130 $2,732 $30,339,047 8 Fox Searchlight
3 Coco $2,100,000 -37% 878 -484 $2,392 $200,916,300 9 Disney
4 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $2,000,000 -21% 954 -68 $2,096 $32,077,357 15 Fox Searchlight
5 Wonder (2017) $560,000 -54% 496 -474 $1,129 $129,914,701 10 Lionsgate
6 All the Money in the World $400,000 -67% 374 -1034 $1,070 $24,129,091 4 Sony / TriStar
7 Thor: Ragnarok $280,000 -25% 184 -58 $1,522 $313,478,531 12 Disney
8 Daddy’s Home 2 $190,000 -5% 183 -18 $1,038 $103,522,780 11 Paramount
9 Condorito: La Pelicula $70,000 -72% 134 -19 $522 $394,446 2 Lionsgate / Pantelion
10 Downsizing $68,000 -78% 134 -278 $507 $24,312,309 5 Paramount

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Hostiles $390,000 43% 49 7 $7,959 $1,370,303 5 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

===

Friday Update: Den of Thieves pulled off an upset with the larger Thursday evening debut of this weekend’s new releases, pulling an estimated $950,000 according to various sources. That’s well ahead of the $340,000 earned by Triple 9 two years ago (which had widely been presumed to be the best comparison title entering the weekend), while also besting The Foreigner‘s $775,000 start last fall. Initial forecasts for the weekend had suggested an opening weekend in the $5-7 million range to be likely, but it now appears the film will easily eclipse that if it can hold up beyond last night’s turnout.

Meanwhile, 12 Strong launched to a similar $900,000 last night, identical to the Thursday opening of Michael Bay’s 13 Hours on MLK weekend two years ago. Both this film and Thieves will have to compete with a day of NFL playoffs pulling away target male audiences on Sunday, but an opening weekend in the low-to-mid double digit millions for each appears possible –if not highly likely — right now.

Follow us on Twitter and check back here for official Friday estimates and early weekend estimates on Saturday morning.

Shawn Robbins

1 Comment

  1. Avatar
    Denver January 19, 2018

    i absolutely believe this is the influence of moviepass… i liked it when it was kind of my exclusive small club thing but now it’s exploded… im worried it’s not gonna be sustainable… however i went to see jumanji over the weekend and i swear every single person in front of me had movie pass… the difference in these numbers we are seeing is the freedom people are having to see movies… and then they go and spend money on concessions…

    Reply

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