Weekend Estimates: ‘Fifty Shades Freed’ ($39M), ‘Peter Rabbit’ ($22M) Post Healthy Debuts; ’15:17 to Paris’ ($12.9M) Modest

Saturday Update: Universal reports this morning that Fifty Shades Freed opened to $18.5 million domestically on Friday, including Thursday night’s $5.6 million haul. That comes in an expected 14 percent behind the $21.45 million opening day of Fifty Shades Darker on this same weekend last year, setting the trilogy finale’s weekend up for a strong first place showing with an estimated $39 million in North America.

Universal also reports that the Fifty Shades franchise officially crossed the $1 billion global mark on Friday thanks to Freed‘s strong worldwide debut. The third film in the series has earned $50.7 million internationally through Friday, with the studio projecting an overall $100 million overseas weekend.

Also coming in strong on Friday was the first day of Peter Rabbit. The live action family film brought in $5.725 million, comping well with the first day of 2015’s first Paddington film ($4.65 million). Boasting an all-star cast and minimal competition for families with young kids in the weeks ahead, Peter Rabbit is poised to enjoy a leggy run at the box office following what is projected to be a $22 million North American opening weekend.

The 15:17 to Paris debuted with $3.73 million on Friday, a modest start compared to director Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper but still generally in line with pre-release expectations. Since the film lacked any Thursday night shows, straight-line comparisons are few at this point, but an early base line could be United 93 as it opened to a $3.7 million first day back in April 2006. Weekend projections for Paris currently stand around $12.9 million.

Meanwhile, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman continued to hold up extraordinarily well despite facing new competition this weekend. The former of the two added $2.205 million on Friday (down just 23 percent from last week) for an updated domestic cume of $358 million as it looks toward another $10 million weekend. The latter — Showman — posted $1.6 million in fifth place (off just 30 percent despite facing the Fifty Shades fan rush), giving it an impressive $141.7 million and a likely weekend around $6.2 million based on Fox’s own projections.

Early weekend estimates are below, to be followed by updated studio estimates on Sunday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Fifty Shades Freed $39,000,000 3,768 $10,350 $39,000,000 1 Universal
2 Peter Rabbit $22,000,000 3,725 $5,906 $22,000,000 1 Sony / Columbia
3 The 15:17 to Paris $12,900,000 3,042 $4,241 $12,900,000 1 Warner Bros.
4 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $10,000,000 -9% 3,136 -216 $3,189 $365,831,871 8 Sony / Columbia
5 The Greatest Showman $6,200,000 -19% 2,373 -215 $2,613 $146,335,870 8 Fox
6 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $5,500,000 -47% 2,923 -870 $1,882 $48,518,129 3 Fox
7 Winchester $4,500,000 -52% 2,480 0 $1,815 $16,627,358 2 Lionsgate / CBS Films
8 The Post $3,300,000 -37% 1,865 -597 $1,769 $72,636,520 8 20th Century Fox
9 Den of Thieves $2,900,000 -36% 1,468 -644 $1,975 $40,971,323 4 STX Entertainment
10 The Shape of Water $2,800,000 -37% 1,780 -561 $1,573 $49,565,691 11 Fox Searchlight
11 Hostiles $2,700,000 -47% 2,214 -720 $1,220 $25,897,468 8 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
12 12 Strong $2,600,000 -45% 1,901 -1017 $1,368 $41,870,179 4 Warner Bros.
13 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $2,000,000 -34% 1,273 -453 $1,571 $45,144,806 18 Fox Searchlight
14 Darkest Hour $1,500,000 -37% 1,045 -441 $1,435 $51,380,092 12 Focus Features
15 Paddington 2 $1,100,000 -66% 1,429 -959 $770 $38,332,364 5 Warner Bros.

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $1,300,000 -44% 830 -637 $1,566 $616,736,279 9 Disney
2 La Boda de Valentina $1,000,000 331 $3,021 $1,000,000 1 Lionsgate / Pantelion
3 Coco $800,000 -54% 833 -803 $960 $206,086,341 12 Disney
4 The Commuter $570,000 -66% 590 -904 $966 $35,535,864 5 Lionsgate
5 Ferdinand $390,000 -42% 387 -188 $1,008 $81,987,553 9 Fox
6 Wonder (2017) $240,000 2% 261 5 $920 $131,288,350 13 Lionsgate
7 Thor: Ragnarok $210,000 -14% 173 -31 $1,214 $314,301,225 15 Disney
8 Daddy’s Home 2 $70,000 -28% 112 -13 $625 $103,981,869 14 Paramount

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Friday Report: Fifty Shades Freed took in $5.6 million from last night’s opening shows, which began at 7pm in 3,150 locations, according to Universal. That’s only 2 percent below the $5.72 million earned by last year’s Fifty Shades Darker on the same pre-Valentine’s weekend. That film ended up taking in $21.45 million for Thursday night + Friday combined as part of an overall $46.6 million opening weekend.

While it stands to reason this third and final film in the trilogy could end up slightly more front-loaded — especially with many fans holding off viewing plans until Valentine’s Day on Wednesday — this start bodes well for the film to meet our pre-release expectations of a debut weekend close to $40 million or slightly above.

Meanwhile, no early opening shows were held for Warner Bros.’ The 15:17 to Paris or Sony’s Peter Rabbit. Targeting three very different audiences, it’s widely expected all three new releases will come in atop the weekend box office.

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