Weekend Report: ‘Justice League’ Pacing for $90M; ‘Wonder’ Breaks Out to $27M; ‘The Star’ Eyes $9M; ‘Lady Bird’ & ‘Three Billboards’ Continue Strong Expansions

Saturday Update: Warner Bros. reports that Justice League earned an estimated $38.8 million on opening day Friday in North America, including Thursday night’s $13 million haul. By comparison, that’s 16.5 percent behind Thor: Ragnarok‘s opening two weeks ago, while marking a 40 percent drop from Suicide Squad‘s first day and 52 percent from Batman v Superman. The figure comes in less than $600,000 ahead of Wonder Woman‘s $38.25 million opening day in June.

Unfortunately, this spells ill news on the domestic side of things as Justice League had widely been expected to land anywhere between $105 million and $130 million for the weekend based on industry tracking and presales trends. Barring the possibility of a stronger matinee turnout than expected on Saturday and Sunday, the film is more likely to land in the $80-95 million range at this point. A $100 million weekend is on the outer edge of likelihoods as the film would need to play out identically to Thor: Ragnarok, a film which earned strong word of mouth out of the gate to propel it instantly.

The bright spots: with Thanksgiving around the corner, families with interested kids may be waiting to check the film out after opening day/weekend, increasing odds for a fair multiplier similar to pre-holiday releases like last year’s Fantastic Beasts and the last three Hunger Games films. Also, Justice League‘s 86 percent Flixster score this morning displays some word of mouth improvement upon Batman v Superman (73 percent) and Suicide Squad (74 percent), although it is below Wonder Woman (93 percent).

Overseas, Justice League added $43.3 million internationally on Friday to bring its cume to $70.7 million and $109.5 million globally. In China, the DC film is performing very well with a $15.1 million Friday take and flash estimates of $21 million for Saturday.

In more positive news stateside, Wonder has lived up to and beyond our sleeper hit expectations with a $9.65 million opening day. The adaptation of the popular novel came in just 13 percent behind the $11.04 million first day of 2009’s The Blind Side, which similarly leveraged a feel-good story with family appeal to massive success on pre-Thanksgiving weekend. We’re expecting significant staying power for the Julia Roberts and Jacob Tremblay-led film throughout the holiday season. Lionsgate projects a $27 million opening weekend.

Meanwhile, Thor: Ragnarok added $5.8 million for a $231.4 million domestic tally through 15 days of play, pacing for $21 million in its third frame; Murder on the Orient Express tacked on $4.075 million in its eighth day as it aims for a solid $14.1 million sophomore frame; and, Daddy’s Home 2 earned $3.93 million yesterday for a $39.7 million eight-day tally with an eye toward $13 million this weekend.

The Star debuted in line with expectations to $2.8 million yesterday, an animated faith-based title that should also leg out a strong multiple in the coming weeks. Sony projects a $9 million weekend.

In limited release, Lady Bird continues to impress with $725,000 from 238 locations on Friday, bringing its total to $2.9 million. Look for a weekend around $2.3 million. Meanwhile, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri expanded to 53 locations with $333,313, giving it $767,538 to date. Fox projects a $1.07 million weekend.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Justice League $90,000,000 4,051 $22,217 $90,000,000 1 Warner Bros.
2 Wonder (2017) $27,000,000 3,096 $8,721 $27,000,000 1 Lionsgate
3 Thor: Ragnarok $21,000,000 -63% 4,060 -20 $5,172 $246,596,170 3 Disney
4 Murder on the Orient Express (2017) $14,100,000 -51% 3,354 13 $4,204 $52,028,362 2 Fox
5 Daddy’s Home 2 $13,000,000 -56% 3,575 0 $3,636 $48,776,447 2 Paramount
6 The Star $9,000,000 2,837 $3,172 $9,000,000 1 Sony / Columbia
7 A Bad Moms Christmas $6,750,000 -41% 2,948 -667 $2,290 $50,772,155 3 STX Entertainment
8 Jigsaw $1,000,000 -71% 1,201 -1450 $833 $36,380,233 4 Lionsgate

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Lady Bird $2,300,000 92% 238 201 $9,664 $4,472,475 3 A24
2 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $440,000 -78% 718 -1182 $613 $46,618,340 5 Lionsgate
3 Let There Be Light $337,589 -70% 542 -232 $623 $6,713,579 4 Atlas
4 Happy Death Day $200,000 -84% 427 -1137 $468 $55,373,190 6 Universal / Blumhouse
5 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $160,000 -62% 271 -150 $590 $99,714,816 9 Fox
6 Marshall $120,000 -71% 275 -326 $436 $8,742,850 6 Open Road
7 The Mountain Between Us $112,000 -61% 237 -166 $473 $29,668,142 7 20th Century Fox
8 My Little Pony: The Movie $100,000 -80% 299 -293 $334 $21,703,962 7 Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $1,070,000 232% 53 49 $20,189 $1,504,225 6 Fox Searchlight
2 Last Flag Flying $124,000 -29% 59 27 $2,102 $413,651 3 Lionsgate
3 No Greater Love $1,023 -95% 8 -15 $128 $28,384 2 Atlas Distribution
4 Friend Request $200 -61% 2 0 $100 $3,758,635 9 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

 

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Friday Report: Warner Bros. reports this morning that Justice League pulled an estimated $13 million from opening night shows on Thursday. By comparison, that comes in 18 percent ahead of Wonder Woman‘s $11 million start back in June, while landing 10 percent behind Thor: Ragnarok‘s $14.5 million. The former of the two is a skewed comparison given that Wonder Woman opened in summer with kids out of school and generated stellar word of mouth, although it was also an origin film — meaning (likely) less built-in immediate demand than a film like Justice League. If the film plays out similarly to Thor: Ragnarok‘s weekend trajectory, the DC team-up will come in around the low-end of our final forecast range — and in line with the studio’s own expectation — of $110 million. However, as always, we’ll see how the weekend plays out with next week’s holiday frame potentially skewing family attendance plans.

Meanwhile, Wonder also got off to a healthy start with $740,000 last night. Comps are challenging for this type of film at this time of year, but that figure bests the $530,000 of Everything, Everything by 40 percent and falls shy of Me Before You‘s $1.37 million by 46 percent. Since both of those films debuted in early summer, a stronger weekend play for Wonder could be expected with its heavier focus toward family-based crowds.

The Star also opened at 5pm last night, although no early show grosses were reported at the time of publishing. We’ll update this post after they’re available. Follow Boxoffice  throughout the weekend for official Friday estimates and further updates.

Shawn Robbins

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Matt D. November 17, 2017

    Been hearing reports that JL will make $95 M ow which would stink. Again those are Friday reports and god knows sometimes those articles never come true so here are my predictions:

    1. Justice League $110 M
    2. Thor 3 $24 M
    3. Wonder $18 M
    4. Daddy’s home 2 $15 M
    5. Murder otoe $ 15 M

    I really hope Justice League crosses the $100 M Mark. Usually sometimes these reports don’t come true like I remember when they said It would make just $100 M ow and then went on to make $123 M. Seeing it tomorrow and hoping it will make over $100 M ow.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fred November 17, 2017

      As the day has gone on that opening weekend number for JL is looking more in that 95-98 million range. I’ll be seeing it next week but that is not a good looking number.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    JC November 18, 2017

    With some holidays and good word of mouth, Wonder could make $135+. The sleeper hit of the season, for sure.

    Reply

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