Weekend Actuals: ‘Black Panther’ Blows Past Expectations with $111.6M; ‘Game Night’ Plays to $17.0M; ‘Annihilation’ So-So with $11.0M

MCU blockbuster continues on a record-setting pace

Monday Update:

For the second straight weekend, Disney’s Black Panther came in millions of dollars above its already sky-high early projections and Sunday estimates. The cultural phenomenon earned $111.6 million this frame, for an astonishing $403.6 million after only 10 days.

Panther posts the second-best second weekend of all time, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens. (Adjusted for inflation it’s the fifth-highest, behind The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, The Avengers, and 2002’s original Spider-Man.)

The film’s 44.7 decline from its debut represents a better hold than virtually any other film in its genre, thanks to terrific word of mouth and a February release date free from much other competition. Among either superhero films or the other biggest opening weekends of all time, virtually every single one dropped 50 percent or more during their second frames.

The best comparison here may be last summer’s Wonder Woman, which fell 43.3 percent en route to a 4.0 multiplier (a measure of total gross to opening weekend). No guarantees this early on, but if Black Panther could even come close to matching that multiplier by the end of its run, the film’s final take could surpass $600 million or possibly even $700 million — a status only reached by two Star Wars films and Avatar in the 21st century.

In other news, Warner Bros.’ comedy Game Night debuted as the runner-up with $17.0 million, while Paramount’s sci-fi thriller Annihilation started in fourth place with $11.0 million.

Sony’s adventure Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Fox’s musical The Greatest Showman both spend their 10th weekends in the top 10 — the first films to do so since Spider-Man: Homecoming in September. Both titles also seem likely to hold on for at least an 11th weekend in the top 10 next frame, with Jumanji in particular potentially staying on even longer than that.

Total box office this weekend totals about $193.3 million. That’s 32.5 percent behind last weekend, but 55.8 percent above the same weekend last year.

Year-to-date box office stands at $1.91 billion, a massive 14.0 percent above this same point last year. While it’s still early in the year and that YTD stat will surely come down as the year goes on, that’s an impressive number for now. Plus it’s a stunning turnaround from as recently as two weeks ago, when the YTD box office actually stood below last year.

The full table of weekend actuals is below, after our Sunday update featuring fuller numbers and analysis.


Sunday Update:

Black Panther continued on a record-setting pace in its second weekend in theaters, racking up an estimated $108 million in its sophomore frame. That’s an even better-than-expected hold for the historic blockbuster, which has consistently outperformed expectations every step of the way. If that estimate holds, the superhero epic will have crossed $400 million in just ten days of release.

Even if the $108 million figure is slightly inflated, Black Panther’s success is mind-blowing by any measureThe Ryan Coogler-directed film has already topped the liftetime gross of all but four MCU titles (Captain America: Civil War, Iron Man 3, Avengers: Age of Ultron and The Avengers) in just ten days. It’s also the fastest MCU title to reach $400 million (it took previous record-holder The Avengers 14 days to get there) and the second-fastest overall, tying with Jurassic World and just behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which reached the milestone in only eight days.

Additionally, Black Panther is only the fourth film in history to gross more than $100 million in its second weekend, joining Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149.2 million), Jurassic World ($106.6 million), and The Avengers ($103.1 million). If estimates hold, it will also be the second-highest sophomore weekend of all time after The Force Awakens.

Way, way down in second place was the Warner Bros. comedy Game Night, which had a pretty good start with an estimated $16.6 million in its opening weekend. That number is significantly higher than the $15.5 million we predicted previously thanks to a bigger-than-expected Saturday bump, indicating strong word-of-mouth for the R-rated flick.

Game Night was certainly helped by largely positive reviews and a well-liked cast top-lined by Rachel McAdams and Jason Bateman. The film’s opening is just about in line with Office Christmas Party (also starring Bateman), which debuted to $16.8 million on its way to $54 million domestically. That said, Game Night could have better legs given its more favorable critical reception and the fact that word-of-mouth appears strong.

Paramount’s Annihilation debuted in fourth with an estimated $11 million on just over 2,000 screens, a so-so start that probably wasn’t what the studio was hoping for given the film’s $40 million budget. Though it stars A-lister Natalie Portman and was beloved by critics, the sci-fi/horror flick is on the artier side of the spectrum and hasn’t exactly connected with mainstream audiences (its CinemaScore is a “C,” not a great indicator of long-term playability).

Notably, Annihilation‘s international release is being handled by Netflix, which agreed to cover a portion of the film’s budget after gaining rights to stream the film overseas 17 days following its North American release. After The Cloverfield Paradox, this is the second time Paramount has reached such a deal with the streaming giant (though unlike Annihilation, that film went straight to Netflix in North America), and this could well be a harbinger of things to come for studios looking to hedge their losses.

Third place went to Sony’s hit animated/live-action hybrid Peter Rabbit, which pulled in another $12.5 million in its third weekend for a robust total of $71.2 million thus far. That’s a decline of just 28% from last weekend, a stellar hold that should guarantee a gross of over $100 million domestically when all is said and done.

In fifth place, Universal’s Fifty Shades Freed brought in $6.9 million for a total of $89.5 million in its third weekend. The threequel is following a similar trajectory to previous installment Fifty Shades Darker, which had a similar drop in its third weekend and went on to a final domestic gross of $114.5 million. While Freed won’t quite match that number due to a slower start, it will easily top $100 million by the end of its run and ranks as a successful finale to the blockbuster erotic drama series despite coming nowhere near the first film’s $166 million domestic total.

Dropping out of the Top 5 for the first time since opening back in December is Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which took in $5.6 million and has grossed an incredible $387.2 million so far. Though the marketplace is growing increasingly crowded, the Dwayne Johnson sequel is inching ever closer to the Spider-Man‘s $403 million total. If it surpasses that number, it will become the highest-grossing Sony title of all time not adjusting for inflation.

Seventh place went to Warner Bros.’ The 15:17 to Paris with an estimated $3.6 million in its third weekend, giving the fact-based Clint Eastwood thriller a total of $32.2 million. In eighth, Fox’s sleeper phenomenon The Greatest Showman banked another $3.4 million for $160.7 after ten weeks.

Way down in ninth was the weekend’s other new wide release, Orion Pictures’ YA romance Every Day, which grossed $3.1 million on just over 1,600 screens. Luckily the budget on this one is being reported at just $5 million, so this opening isn’t a disaster.

Rounding out the Top 10 is Lionsgate’s Early Man, which took in just $1.7 million in its second weekend of release for a running total of $6.7 million. The stop-motion Aardman production just wasn’t able to gain a foothold in the marketplace and will soon be making the trek to home-viewing formats.

Overseas Update:

Black Panther took in an estimated $83.8 million overseas this weekend, bringing its international total to $304 million and its worldwide total to an eye-popping $704 million. After just ten days, the film is already the tenth highest-grossing MCU release globally, having just passed Doctor Strange and Ant-Man on the list. Look for it to leapfrog over most of the rest in the coming weeks as it opens in more markets including China and Japan. The all-time record holder for MCU releases internationally is The Avengers, which took in $1.5 billion back in 2012.


Weekend Actuals (Domestic)

FRI, FEB. 23 – SUN, FEB. 25

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Black Panther $111,658,835 -45% 4,020 0 $27,776 $403,613,257 2 Disney
2 Game Night $17,005,332 3,488 $4,875 $17,005,332 1 Warner Bros.
3 Peter Rabbit $12,760,382 -27% 3,707 -18 $3,442 $71,506,084 3 Sony / Columbia
4 Annihilation $11,071,584 2,012 $5,503 $11,071,584 1 Paramount Pictures
5 Fifty Shades Freed $7,147,285 -59% 3,265 -503 $2,189 $89,793,065 3 Universal
6 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $5,650,497 -29% 2,519 -281 $2,243 $387,284,712 10 Sony / Columbia
7 The 15:17 to Paris $3,573,259 -53% 2,752 -290 $1,298 $32,231,011 3 Warner Bros.
8 The Greatest Showman $3,411,649 -32% 1,601 -335 $2,131 $160,778,519 10 Fox
9 Every Day $3,016,149 1,667 $1,809 $3,016,149 1 Orion Pictures
10 Early Man $1,773,963 -44% 2,494 0 $711 $6,853,385 2 Lionsgate
11 Samson $970,708 -50% 1,140 -109 $851 $3,743,204 2 Pure Flix

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $1,247,624 -18% 691 -89 $1,806 $50,152,203 20 Fox Searchlight
2 The Post $1,240,961 -38% 795 -255 $1,561 $78,888,962 10 20th Century Fox
3 The Shape of Water $1,180,255 -29% 721 -236 $1,637 $55,366,099 13 Fox Searchlight
4 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $962,619 -63% 952 -940 $1,011 $56,329,223 5 Fox
5 Winchester $929,450 -58% 852 -627 $1,091 $23,735,224 4 Lionsgate / CBS Films
6 Phantom Thread $864,510 20% 651 296 $1,328 $19,016,604 9 Focus Features
7 Darkest Hour $745,625 -20% 795 193 $938 $54,465,467 14 Focus Features
8 Lady Bird $669,640 7% 601 194 $1,114 $47,301,769 17 A24
9 I, Tonya $582,853 -36% 423 -79 $1,378 $28,096,631 12 Neon
10 Call Me by Your Name $523,206 3% 675 343 $775 $15,764,116 14 Sony Pictures Classics
11 2018 Oscar Nominated Short Films $488,311 -28% 232 -38 $2,105 $2,634,591 3 Magnolia Pictures
12 Coco $469,403 -32% 266 -119 $1,765 $208,032,413 14 Disney
13 Den of Thieves $395,974 -58% 357 -373 $1,109 $44,306,529 6 STX Entertainment
14 12 Strong $385,032 -59% 448 -367 $859 $44,893,967 6 Warner Bros.
15 Detective Chinatown 2 $381,886 -46% 111 -4 $3,440 $1,537,464 2 Warner Bros.
16 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $352,838 -43% 292 -59 $1,208 $618,728,556 11 Disney
17 Hostiles $350,326 -58% 418 -349 $838 $29,133,147 10 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
18 Ferdinand $240,571 -18% 214 -37 $1,124 $82,809,980 11 Fox
19 La Boda de Valentina $228,501 -57% 141 -190 $1,621 $2,508,135 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion
20 Paddington 2 $213,231 -47% 281 -112 $759 $39,802,641 7 Warner Bros.
21 Mary and The Witch’s Flower $203,439 3520% 448 445 $454 $2,159,942 6 GKIDS
22 Wonder (2017) $168,350 -16% 158 -35 $1,066 $131,947,082 15 Lionsgate
23 Forever My Girl $162,660 -62% 218 -183 $746 $16,024,128 6 Roadside Attractions/LD Entertainment
24 Thor: Ragnarok $137,366 -30% 131 -18 $1,049 $314,812,368 17 Disney
25 Molly’s Game $125,445 -38% 104 -66 $1,206 $28,595,534 9 STX Entertainment
26 The Commuter $113,208 -1% 138 -10 $820 $36,114,858 7 Lionsgate
27 Pitch Perfect 3 $90,250 -35% 135 -22 $669 $104,782,735 10 Universal
28 Justice League $85,256 -36% 137 -7 $622 $228,890,349 15 Warner Bros.
29 Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool $74,979 -35% 102 -5 $735 $700,851 9 Sony Pictures Classics
30 Insidious: The Last Key $74,065 -51% 110 -59 $673 $67,325,620 8 Universal

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Operation Red Sea $436,059 46 $9,480 $436,059 1 Well Go USA Entertainment
2 Padmaavat $187,949 -61% 91 -49 $2,065 $11,846,060 5
3 A Fantastic Woman $158,254 68% 78 49 $2,029 $585,333 4 Sony Pictures Classics
4 Pad Man $103,019 -70% 95 -57 $1,084 $1,602,164 3 Sony Pictures Releasing International
5 The Party $100,474 169% 30 27 $3,349 $153,945 2 Roadside Attractions
6 Monster Hunt 2 $99,768 -71% 55 -14 $1,814 $611,267 2 Lionsgate
7 The Insult $76,270 -10% 51 8 $1,495 $762,171 7 Cohen Media Group
8 Agent Mr Chan $62,235 10 $6,224 $62,235 1 China Lion Film
9 Loveless $60,256 99% 12 9 $5,021 $126,768 2 Sony Pictures Classics
10 Proud Mary $40,206 -1% 74 12 $543 $20,828,945 7 Sony / Screen Gems
11 The Young Karl Marx $26,097 3 $8,699 $26,097 1 The Orchard
12 All the Money in the World $25,737 -32% 30 -7 $858 $25,004,002 9 Sony / TriStar
13 1945 $23,709 -27% 8 1 $2,964 $356,884 17 Menemsha Films
14 Double Lover $21,350 -66% 22 -28 $970 $139,850 2 Cohen Media Group
15 The Monkey King 3 $20,476 -79% 14 -20 $1,463 $167,335 2 Well Go USA Entertainment
16 Detective K: Secret of the Living Dead $17,655 -42% 8 -1 $2,207 $74,251 2 Well Go USA Entertainment
17 Nostalgia $16,701 5% 16 13 $1,044 $36,442 2 Bleecker Street
18 Murder on the Orient Express (2017) $16,498 -40% 37 -14 $446 $102,816,689 16 Fox
19 Faces Places $15,238 279% 16 3 $952 $863,281 21 Cohen Media Group
20 The Florida Project $12,953 -34% 21 -2 $617 $5,854,554 21 A24
21 Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story $10,513 3% 8 4 $1,314 $300,781 14 Zeitgeist
22 The Square $7,920 -6% 12 3 $660 $1,473,966 18 Magnolia Pictures
23 Have A Nice Day $7,242 16% 15 7 $483 $63,234 5 Strand Releasing
24 Happy End $6,976 -31% 18 2 $388 $277,964 10 Sony Pictures Classics
25 In Between $6,779 124% 8 4 $847 $68,225 8 Film Movement
26 The Disaster Artist $6,495 -55% 12 -11 $541 $21,108,219 13 New Line / A24
27 Tehran Taboo $6,012 21% 3 2 $2,004 $25,651 2 Kino Lorber
28 The Cured $4,875 3 $1,625 $4,875 1 IFC Films
29 Tom of Finland $4,541 573% 2 1 $2,271 $366,784 20 Kino Lorber
30 Golden Exits $4,413 -48% 3 -8 $1,471 $37,801 3 Vertical Entertainment
31 Jane $3,986 25% 3 0 $1,329 $1,705,262 19 Abramorama
32 In The Fade $3,849 -58% 11 -9 $350 $279,516 9 Magnolia Pictures
33 The Breadwinner $3,389 -10% 16 0 $212 $304,463 15 GKIDS
34 The Boy Downstairs $2,829 -53% 1 0 $2,829 $12,257 2 FilmRise
35 Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds $2,059 -37% 2 -1 $1,030 $1,908,378 10 Well Go USA
36 Bilal: A New Breed of Hero $1,979 -76% 6 -10 $330 $490,515 4 Vertical Entertainment
37 24 Frames $1,498 -18% 1 0 $1,498 $26,311 4 Janus Films
38 Mind Game $1,213 -78% 2 -5 $607 $6,822 2 GKIDS
39 The Final Year $940 -63% 3 -5 $313 $189,886 6 Magnolia Pictures
40 The Wedding Party 2: Destination Dubai $690 -90% 2 0 $345 $11,140 2 IronFlix
41 The Crime of Monsieur Lange $493 1 $493 $35,330 15 Rialto Pictures
42 My Friend Dahmer $473 1 $473 $1,355,664 17 FilmRise
43 Beuys $202 -87% 1 -1 $202 $50,462 6 Kino Lorber
44 The Divine Order $99 29% 1 0 $99 $71,921 18 Kino Lorber / Zeitgeist Films

Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, FEB. 23 – SUN, FEB. 25

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Black Panther $108,046,000 -47% 4,020 0 $26,877 $400,000,422 2 Disney
2 Game Night $16,600,000 3,488 $4,759 $16,600,000 1 Warner Bros.
3 Peter Rabbit $12,545,000 -28% 3,707 -18 $3,384 $71,290,702 3 Sony / Columbia
4 Annihilation $11,000,000 2,012 $5,467 $11,000,000 1 Paramount Pictures
5 Fifty Shades Freed $6,915,000 -60% 3,265 -503 $2,118 $89,560,780 3 Universal
6 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $5,650,000 -29% 2,519 -281 $2,243 $387,284,215 10 Sony / Columbia
7 The 15:17 to Paris $3,600,000 -53% 2,752 -290 $1,308 $32,257,752 3 Warner Bros.
8 The Greatest Showman $3,400,000 -32% 1,601 -335 $2,124 $160,766,870 10 Fox
9 Every Day $3,103,996 1,667 $1,862 $3,103,996 1 Orion Pictures
10 Early Man $1,700,000 -47% 2,494 0 $682 $6,779,422 2 Lionsgate
11 Samson $950,000 -51% 1,140 -109 $833 $3,722,496 2 Pure Flix

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $1,225,000 -19% 691 -89 $1,773 $50,129,579 20 Fox Searchlight
2 The Post $1,200,000 -40% 795 -255 $1,509 $78,848,001 10 20th Century Fox
3 The Shape of Water $1,115,000 -33% 721 -236 $1,546 $55,300,844 13 Fox Searchlight
4 Winchester $975,000 -56% 852 -627 $1,144 $23,780,774 4 Lionsgate / CBS Films
5 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $950,000 -63% 952 -940 $998 $56,316,604 5 Fox
6 Darkest Hour $775,000 -16% 795 193 $975 $54,494,842 14 Focus Features
7 Lady Bird $645,320 4% 601 194 $1,074 $47,277,449 17 A24
8 Phantom Thread $595,000 -17% 651 296 $914 $18,747,094 9 Focus Features
9 I, Tonya $580,640 -36% 423 -79 $1,373 $28,094,418 12 Neon
10 Call Me by Your Name $552,141 9% 675 343 $818 $15,793,051 14 Sony Pictures Classics
11 Coco $493,000 -29% 266 -119 $1,853 $208,056,010 14 Disney
12 2018 Oscar Nominated Short Films $450,000 -34% 230 -40 $1,957 $2,596,280 3 Magnolia Pictures
13 Detective Chinatown 2 $390,000 -45% 111 -4 $3,514 $1,545,578 2 Warner Bros.
14 Hostiles $376,000 -55% 418 -349 $900 $29,158,821 10 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
15 Den of Thieves $370,000 -60% 357 -373 $1,036 $44,280,555 6 STX Entertainment
16 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $335,000 -46% 292 -59 $1,147 $618,710,718 11 Disney
17 La Boda de Valentina $230,000 -57% 141 -190 $1,631 $2,509,634 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion
18 Wonder (2017) $165,000 -18% 158 -35 $1,044 $131,943,732 15 Lionsgate
19 Thor: Ragnarok $141,000 -28% 131 -18 $1,076 $314,816,002 17 Disney
20 Molly’s Game $130,000 -36% 104 -66 $1,250 $28,600,089 9 STX Entertainment
21 The Commuter $113,000 -2% 138 -10 $819 $36,114,650 7 Lionsgate
22 Pitch Perfect 3 $85,000 -39% 135 -22 $630 $104,777,485 10 Universal
23 Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool $76,611 -34% 102 -5 $751 $702,483 9 Sony Pictures Classics
24 Insidious: The Last Key $75,000 -50% 110 -59 $682 $67,326,555 8 Universal

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Operation Red Sea $510,000 45 $11,333 $510,000 1 Well Go USA Entertainment
2 A Fantastic Woman $162,336 72% 78 49 $2,081 $589,415 4 Sony Pictures Classics
3 Pad Man $115,000 -67% 95 -57 $1,211 $1,614,145 3 Sony Pictures Releasing International
4 Monster Hunt 2 $98,000 -71% 55 -14 $1,782 $609,499 2 Lionsgate
5 The Insult $76,160 -10% 50 7 $1,523 $762,061 7 Cohen Media Group
6 Loveless $65,457 117% 12 9 $5,455 $131,969 2 Sony Pictures Classics
7 The Young Karl Marx $28,599 3 $9,533 $28,599 1 The Orchard
8 Double Lover $21,369 -66% 22 -28 $971 $139,869 2 Cohen Media Group
9 Nostalgia $15,510 -3% 16 13 $969 $35,251 2 Bleecker Street
10 Faces Places $15,118 276% 16 3 $945 $863,161 21 Cohen Media Group
11 November $4,300 1 $4,300 $4,300 1 Oscilloscope Laboratories
Chris Eggertsen

5 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Delfra February 25, 2018

    How is making $108 million in it’s second week slightly inflated? Please explain that one to me. Black Panther had the exact same amount of days(3)over the weekend that any other previous film had in it’s second week, unless you’re saying something I new that I failed to pick Chris. Come on now man and stop reaching and give this film it’s deserved props, always somebody reaching with some but b.s. You we’re sadly mistaken if you though that “Slightly Inflated” line would slip by without someone noticing your flaw, I see what you did there lol.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen February 25, 2018

      What they mean by slightly inflated is that these are estimates provided by the studio. The studio is guessing that the total will be 108mil, but they might be wrong in the ned. I might be 100mil. Thus they may have “slightly inflated” their estimate.

      By the way, it’s equals it is or it has. Always. The possessive form is its. The cat and its fur, the box office and its estimation.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Delfra February 26, 2018

        I see. Well when actuals come in you know it’s not going to be $100 million lol. When actuals come in it will be no lower than $105-$106m and as high as $110m. If the studio provided the estimates it’s very likely BP’s numbers will even come in higher today because studios always give the lowest estimates when it comes to their own films.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Tim February 25, 2018

    There’s definitely some racial microaggressions within your comment that this second weekend is “inflated.” What do you mean by this? Let’s give the film and Black folks their props for making this movie a blockbuster. With its trajectory, it’s clear that this film will be the highest Marvel property. Please correct this or explain what you mean.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Jacen February 25, 2018

    I’m unsurprised by the low audience score for Annihilation. The music for the film is very aggravating, especially at the end. It was like the director went out of his way to alienate the audience or test their patience for no good reason. While the film has interesting ideas, the characters aren’t as distinct as they need to be, the drama needed more development, there were too many exchanges of “What is it?”/”I don’t know.” or variations of that … and ultimately what we’re left with is an all female version of “Who Goes There?” It was a good try, but the result should sink quickly in the coming weeks. It’s unfortunate, because John Carpenter’s version of a mimic/all-consuming alien is one of my favorites, and I enjoyed how Marvel mined the idea in their early-2000’s version of the Venom comics, but this iteration was dissatisfying.

    Reply

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